Warm Weather Set To Continue

After a wonderfully warm start to the week in Southern Manitoba, we will be given a second chance to take a break from the cold winter weather for the rest of the week. 

A look at temperatures for the evening on Wednesday, by around 6pm CDT.

Temperatures in Southern Manitoba the rest week will be normal to above normal, as high temperatures reach through into the  minus single digits and possibly slightly above zero as warm air invades into the region.

0 to -10C / -10 to -20C

Wednesday will be a nice day with be a fairly nice day, but cloudcover will be a main factor with little in the way of sunshine. Daytime temperatures will rise into the minus single digits to the minus double digits, above zero temperatures could be found in a few places. Overnight lows will be in the mid minus teens to near minus twenty degrees. Much of the sunnier weather will return for Thursday and Friday.

0 to -10C / -10 to -15C

Thursday will be much sunnier than compared to the day on Wednesday with daytime high temperatures staying in the minus single digits once again and very little wind to contend with. Overnight lows will be in the mid minus teens again, with a few places reaching near -20C again.


 

-5 to -10C / -10 to -15C

Friday will take a while to warm up as a northerly wind component stays into the region until mid afternoon, that is when temperatures will start warming and only to around the -5 to -10C mark as they reach their daytime high's not too bad though. The good thing about the day on Friday is that the Sun will help keep things warm even though that it will feel just a little chilly with our overall temperatures. Overnight lows for Friday Night will be expected to approach the minus twenty mark or in the high minus teens. The Only cooldown for the week will take place during the Friday and Saturday Night period. 

 
Weekend and Beyond
The Weekend will start getting closer to the 0C mark in terms of temperatures and overnight lows will start warming as well, cloudcover will be the case for these warmer than normal temperatures. Clearer weather will begin for the start of the week next week, as for the long range it really doesn't look like we will be locking into Spring but more alterations between cool and warm weather. With the much warmer sun being out I can assure you no coldsnap will last that long. CPC Outlooks hint at normal temperatures continuing through the Month of March, with normal precipitation amounts. Let's just hope the spring weather comes around soon and stays. I am not liking this neverending winter, bring on the storm season! 

Overall a wonderfully warm spell of weather to look forward to for the second half of the week, nothing to complain about if we are sitting in the minus single digits!

Long Time No See! New Post On The Way Wednesday

I had an awesome break from having to detail every aspect of our weather, but am happy to be back in business. I will now only post at the start of the week and/or when the weather pattern or setup is forecast to change. It's not worth it when I have to post 3 times a week when nothing is happening, better off saving my time when the weather becomes active. I will likely have a post setup for the day Wednesday so you all can prepare for the second half of the week! Are you wishing for warmer weather? Your wish is coming true.....

Potential Stormy Weekend On The Way

As we have started warming up in Southern Manitoba a threat of potentially stormy conditions returns this weekend as a potential Colorado Low (or Classico) moves into the region.



A Colorado low will move into our region on the day Sunday (based on the NAM 018Z model from Yesterday), the question is will it happen?

The Weather this weekend may very well be an interesting one with a day of calm and beautiful weather followed by a day of stormy and poor conditions. Though I am not certainly sure it will turn out this way as models are having a tough time making an agreement on the outcome. 

The Track on Classico differs by model, the NAM, GEM-REG and GFS want to carry it Northwards into Manitoba, while the GEM-GLB wants to take it further East into Iowa through to Ontario. If Classico goes into Manitoba the chances for blizzard like conditions and heavy snowfall increase, though if it moves off through Iowa and Ontario we may only receive a dusting at best. 

Thus it makes for a difficult choice and complicates the forecast. My pick very well based on past occurrences this winter, I would likely pick Manitoba as most of the systems I tracked this year ended up hitting us. If anything it's always good to bring issues like these to the table, just in case if it ends up occurring.
 
Let's try and break things down for your day today and the weekend ahead

Overcast -5C/-12C

Friday will start off sunny and quite mild for most of Southern Manitoba as a low pressure system over Northern Manitoba draws a southerly flow into it, allowing for a mild airmass to settle into our region. Not only that but clouds will roll in by morning to mid afternoon (West to East) along with the southerly flow aloft, the southerly winds could also give way to local blowing snow in open areas given the gusts to 40km/h. Temperatures will rise anywhere from -4C to -7C in the West to -6C to -11C in the Red River Valley and East. Overnight Lows from -10C to -14C.

Sunny -5C/-13C

Saturday will be a better day and not as gloomy, the sun will be out for the day allowing for our temperatures to warm a little more with the help of the southerly flow that still will be in place. Temperatures will be in wide variation from -7C to -3C in the day and -15C to -11C overnight, some light snow could arrive overnight if the expected system drives North into the region.

Heavy Snow / Blowing Snow

Sunday is challenging, as seen in the past few paragraphs. If the forecasted system heads into the region we could be in for a day of blizzard like or winter storm conditions. Such as heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and poor road conditions. The snow would likely start by morning and increase in intensity as the day goes on, peaking by evening and near midnight, likely easing by the overnight period. This is the likely worst case scenario, if it happens. Temperatures would probably be left in the mid minus single digits through the day and overnight period given not much in the way of changing wind direction. The track of Classico would be through Northwest Minnesota spreading snow into all of Southern Manitoba the worst in The Red River Valley given the scenario above. Watches and or Warnings may be issued by Environment Canada in advance of this storm system. Stay Tuned for Updates on the comments section of the blog!
                                                                     OR

Scattered Flurries

However the day could be completely different if the low moves East into Iowa and Ontario, sunny to partly sunny skies would dominate the region, with a slight chance for flurries in the Southwest, Red River Valley, and Southeast Portions of the province. Temperatures would remain in the minus single digits for daytime highs and minus double digits overnight.

Long Range
At this point the above seasonal temperature trend will likely continue given the current outlooks and model runs, but a second batch of colder arctic air looks likely by the 14th based on ECMWF and AO Outlooks. That means this cold air may not be as cold as the last one, but the good news is that it may very well be the last of the season. Beyond that point, too much uncertainty exists.

Overall a fairly interesting next few days lies ahead, take care and listen for updates!

Warmer Weather But Not Much Warmer

Warmer weather will be common this week in Southern Manitoba, but that's not to say that it will be much warmer. Instead It will feel warmer compared to the arctic air that we have been experiencing lately in our region.


A look at the clipper system that will be moving by Manitoba bringing an area of lift and snow off to the northeast of the system likely affecting regions of Southern Manitoba. (Map is drawn by me)

"We will be under the influence of a semi zonal flow aloft this week" according to Scott from A Weather Moment as a result there will be several small clipper systems that will track east throughout the week and affect most regions in Southern Manitoba. The clippers will bring multiple chances for snow and some possible blowing snow as they move through. So how is the rest of our week shaping up? Let us have a look shall we...

Clouds and Sun
-8C to - 13C
-15 to -21C

For The rest of the day Today cloudy skies will dominate with a few spots of sun peaking through the clouds. Temperatures will be close to seasonal values with daytime highs in the upper single digits, or lower double digits. All of the temperatures will be below zero of course.



Snow & Local Blowing
Snow Amounts of
5cm+
-3C to -9C
-11C to -17C

As for Wednesday another Alberta clipper will be on the way for the duration of the day. Snow will come along with it likely putting our amounts up into the 5 to 10cm range, much higher than that of Monday's system. The Alberta Clipper will not only bring snow it may also bring forward hazardous driving conditions on some highway's as local blowing snow occurs with the wind whipped fresh falling snow. Things will likely clear out completely by midnight for all as the system drives down into South Dakota. Daytime temperatures will be around the mid minus single digits and warmer in places for Southwest Manitoba.


There is going to be something of interest to talk about in the long range. There have been numerous indications and mentions over the past week that we could possibly be heading for a warmer period of weather that could exist through mid-February. The Climate Prediction Centre, NAEFS, ECMWF, and Arctic Oscillation all are in line with the possibility of a much warmer period of weather than last experienced. It will likely take place from early through until mid February, but doesn't tell how warm we may end up getting. With the warmer weather expected the arctic air invasions we have suffered through last month will become less common, but that's not to say that we may go through a few -30C nights before the month is over.

Deep Freeze Gives Way To A Mixed Weekend (New Weather Icons)

Despite our Deepfreeze we experienced this past week we will now slowly be pushed back into more seasonal like weather, as a series of powerful low pressure systems track through Alaska and become responsible for bringing milder air Eastwards into our Province. The Milder air will arrive at the end of this week.

Warmer Temperatures are on The Way for the end of the week as the pacific air slowly moves in.

Partly Cloudy

Tonight Any leftover snow that was experienced today should clear out leaving behind partly cloudy skies and temperatures once again dropping to -21 to -23C in the West, -25 to -27C in the East and -26 to -29C in the Red Red River Valley and Winnipeg. Coldest windchill's will be in the East in Steinbach at -36C, others anywhere from -32 to -35C. There will also be increasing clouds in Southwest Manitoba overnight as another area of clouds move in from Saskatchewan.

Flurries West / Cloud East

Sunday will start off cloudy in the west with scattered flurries developing by mid afternoon allowing for cloudcover to spread into parts of the Red River Valley, all thank's to an area of low pressure that will slide through the region from Saskatchewan. If you aren't up for shovelling then you don't have to, as there will only be about 2cm when all is said and done. Winter this year is gone fairly easy for the most I'd say. Daytime high's across the South should be in the mid minus teens in the afternoon hours (-13C to -19C). The Clouds and snow should be quick to clear as the system moves east into Northwest Ontario by evening.
Overnight lows on Sunday will be back down into the mid minus twenties and colder. (-25C to -30C). 

      The Week Ahead

 
Heading into next week the flow overhead will become significantly more zonal as a West to East flow takes shape over the prairies, this will allow for pacific air to move into our region getting our temperatures back up to normal and slightly above normal by the end of the week. Spring is nearing and I can truely say so. The following images below are from Brett Anderson's Blog on our week's ahead, it is looking very nice for those people who are getting tired of the winter weather.