Potential Stormy Weekend On The Way

As we have started warming up in Southern Manitoba a threat of potentially stormy conditions returns this weekend as a potential Colorado Low (or Classico) moves into the region.



A Colorado low will move into our region on the day Sunday (based on the NAM 018Z model from Yesterday), the question is will it happen?

The Weather this weekend may very well be an interesting one with a day of calm and beautiful weather followed by a day of stormy and poor conditions. Though I am not certainly sure it will turn out this way as models are having a tough time making an agreement on the outcome. 

The Track on Classico differs by model, the NAM, GEM-REG and GFS want to carry it Northwards into Manitoba, while the GEM-GLB wants to take it further East into Iowa through to Ontario. If Classico goes into Manitoba the chances for blizzard like conditions and heavy snowfall increase, though if it moves off through Iowa and Ontario we may only receive a dusting at best. 

Thus it makes for a difficult choice and complicates the forecast. My pick very well based on past occurrences this winter, I would likely pick Manitoba as most of the systems I tracked this year ended up hitting us. If anything it's always good to bring issues like these to the table, just in case if it ends up occurring.
 
Let's try and break things down for your day today and the weekend ahead

Overcast -5C/-12C

Friday will start off sunny and quite mild for most of Southern Manitoba as a low pressure system over Northern Manitoba draws a southerly flow into it, allowing for a mild airmass to settle into our region. Not only that but clouds will roll in by morning to mid afternoon (West to East) along with the southerly flow aloft, the southerly winds could also give way to local blowing snow in open areas given the gusts to 40km/h. Temperatures will rise anywhere from -4C to -7C in the West to -6C to -11C in the Red River Valley and East. Overnight Lows from -10C to -14C.

Sunny -5C/-13C

Saturday will be a better day and not as gloomy, the sun will be out for the day allowing for our temperatures to warm a little more with the help of the southerly flow that still will be in place. Temperatures will be in wide variation from -7C to -3C in the day and -15C to -11C overnight, some light snow could arrive overnight if the expected system drives North into the region.

Heavy Snow / Blowing Snow

Sunday is challenging, as seen in the past few paragraphs. If the forecasted system heads into the region we could be in for a day of blizzard like or winter storm conditions. Such as heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and poor road conditions. The snow would likely start by morning and increase in intensity as the day goes on, peaking by evening and near midnight, likely easing by the overnight period. This is the likely worst case scenario, if it happens. Temperatures would probably be left in the mid minus single digits through the day and overnight period given not much in the way of changing wind direction. The track of Classico would be through Northwest Minnesota spreading snow into all of Southern Manitoba the worst in The Red River Valley given the scenario above. Watches and or Warnings may be issued by Environment Canada in advance of this storm system. Stay Tuned for Updates on the comments section of the blog!
                                                                     OR

Scattered Flurries

However the day could be completely different if the low moves East into Iowa and Ontario, sunny to partly sunny skies would dominate the region, with a slight chance for flurries in the Southwest, Red River Valley, and Southeast Portions of the province. Temperatures would remain in the minus single digits for daytime highs and minus double digits overnight.

Long Range
At this point the above seasonal temperature trend will likely continue given the current outlooks and model runs, but a second batch of colder arctic air looks likely by the 14th based on ECMWF and AO Outlooks. That means this cold air may not be as cold as the last one, but the good news is that it may very well be the last of the season. Beyond that point, too much uncertainty exists.

Overall a fairly interesting next few days lies ahead, take care and listen for updates!