Hot and Humid Weather Continues, Severe Weather Threat Midweek

A Ridge which has placed itself over Eastern Saskatchewan over the past few days continues to be the culprit for heat and humidity, over southern regions of Manitoba into the interlake. This pattern looks to continue for a while with another few rounds of severe weather possible this week . 

(Above ) a look at the severe weather threat for the day on Tuesday . Potential exists for thunderstorms to spread east into the Red River Valley in the evening . Map Information From Environment Canada. 

Overnight lows tonight will not drop much as a continued Southerly flow will keep temperatures in the low twenties some areas may drop between fifteen and twenty Celsius in the Red River Valley . If not expect low twenties in general , There is a possibility overnights of severe weather occurring in extreme south western portions of Manitoba though most of the storms to skirt the US border and remain in North Dakota.

The attention shifts over to Tuesday  temperatures will be in the high twenties to low thirties with humidex values in the high thirties to mid forties. Areas that may see the low to mid 40°C range would be along the American border sneaking into the Winnipeg and Red River Valley regions . A high temperature of 32C can be expected on Tuesday in Winnipeg feeling like 39-41C.  In Brandon on a high temperature of 30C feeling like 39C is expected . A severe weather threat exists through the afternoon and evening for much of southern regions of the province into the Interlakes possibly,  a cold front will be slicing through that hot and humid air mass that will be in place throughout the day time.   Thunderstorms look to possibly develop in the early to mid afternoon hours , with the risk of Supercell thunderstorms with large hail up to golf ball size or smaller heavy rain in excess of 75 to 125 mm and a small risk of a tornado in the southwestern portions of Manitoba.  Justin mentions that there is a possibility of another squall developing in the late afternoon  impacting southwestern Manitoba with another 1 to 5 inches of rain possible before the Thunderstorms move east into the western red river valley and into the red river valley and Winnipeg. Before weakening in eastern Manitoba.  As they move east there is a threat for 50 to 100 mm of rain wind gusts over 100 km an hour heal up to the size of toonies to ping pong or golf ball. Despite the threat for heavy rain it would give areas in the red river valley a well needed rain fall given the dry conditions currently. There is a possibility for thunderstorms to train again in south western Manitoba and miss the red river valley if that happens there will not be any rainfall occurring in areas that need it most I will keep you updated along with Justin throughout the day on Tuesday for the outcome as it is extremely hard to predict where exactly thunderstorms will occur we can only go on model guidance. Best outcome based on data would be thunderstorms initiate in Saskatchewan and then gradually spread north east with further development possible in the southwest portion of the province if thunderstorms to form they will be severe throughout  the afternoon and evening. 

Thunderstorm should clear on Tuesday overnight should also be a gradual temperature drop overnight with Lowe’s in the mid to high teens with urban areas closer to 20° overnight. Hello temperature of 18 Celsius for Brandon and low temperatures of 21 Celsius for Winnipeg.

A cold front should clear the province by mid afternoon on Wednesday bringing in pleasant conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Instead of mid high 20s temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s was some areas just surpassing 25 Celsius mix of sun and cloudy with some sun can be expected. A high temperature of 28 Celsius can be expected in Winnipeg and a high temperature of 26° in Brandon. 

On the night Wednesday westerly winds will usher in cooler conditions behind the cold front . Cooler  overnight lows Wednesday night will be the night with low temperatures in the low to mid double digits some areas in rural regions may see the temperature closer to 10°C if you’re lucky. A low temperature of 14 Celsius can be expected in Brandon at a low temperature 17 Celsius can be expected in Winnipeg.

The second half of the week looks to be more unstable. As the heat returns with Higher dew points,  increasing amounts of instability Ahead of  multiple low pressure systems. It is extremely difficult to narrow down where the severe weather threats will occur but as models have shown there is a potential for severe weather throughout southern Manitoba for the rest of the week into the weekend before conditions cool off to start next week. Behind the ridge as it moves east . 

Heat and humidity With a chance for thunderstorms

Southern Manitoba is expected to continue in the above normal temperature pattern for this weekend heading into next week, multiple chances for storms will also occur as we experience the heat and influx of humidity from the United States . Read more below... 

Southern Manitoba is expected to enter a prolonged period of heat and humidity for this weekend, its  already started this will continue into early to mid next week. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to move through Central Manitoba Bringing a southerly flow with a warm and humid air mass in from the southern United States. 

  For the rest of the day today expect high temperatures in the southwest portion of the province to be in the low to mid 30s with humidity values feeling closer to 40C. As well areas in the southeast can expect temperature in the high 20s to low 30s with some areas experiencing humidex values surpassing 38C. A cold front will gradually lift northeast throughout the evening sparking off thunderstorms, some may be severe areas  will be From the Sask border by Melita and the USA border northeast to The interlakes. As far as east as Carberry.

 The night ahead thunderstorms will occur in the southwest, ML CAPE values will be in the 2000 J per kilogram range. As that is in place there is a risk for severe thunderstorms this evening into Western  in portions of Manitoba and the Interlake regions. Moderate size hail , strong winds and frequent lightning are a possibility. A possibility of thunderstorms exists in the red river valley but the  chance is very slim .  Tonight expect temperature to not really drop much with overnight lows only getting into The low 20s for much of the southern portion of the province a few regions by the parklands may only be in the 15 to 20° range. A low temperature of 21 Celsius as expected for Winnipeg, with a low temperature of 19 Celsius is expected for Brandon. 

Sunday will be a hot one, temperatures will soar into the low to mid-30s for the majority of southern Manitoba on Sunday, humidex values will also climb into the high  30s to lows 40s on the day. In the evening a cold front approaching from the united states will slide north and allow for Severe Thunderstorms to develop in the southwest portion of the province. as MLCAPE values will be in the 3000 J per kilogram range expect hail from the size of toonies to golf balls,  winds in excess of 100 km an hour and frequent lightning. Thunderstorms will move north east throughout the evening areas will be impacted by these thunderstorms as far east as Portage la Prairie. overnight lows on Sunday will only drop into the high teens to mid 20s. And overnight low of 19 Celsius can be expected in Brandon and a low of 21 Celsius in Winnipeg. Winds will also continue to be gusty out of the south.  There may be a chance that some of the thunderstorms that occur in the south west portion of the province travel, east into the red river valley areas that chances are slim though as most activity or weaken by the time it gets the portage la prairie. The reason for the warm overnight lows will be the high dew points temperatures, they will be hanging around 16 to 20 Celsius. 

The day on Monday looks like a severe weather threat will initialize in the evening hours high temperatures on Monday will be extremely warm reaching into the high 20’s and low 30’s once again. A high of 32C expected for Winnipeg and a high of 31C for Brandon. Dew points in the 18-23C range will supply MLCAPE values  in excess of 4000 J per kilogram in the southwest part of Manitoba.  A cold front will gradually move east north east throughout the afternoon and evening .   

A concern will be areas in the South western portion of Manitoba Which may receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the coming days that may  give regions more rainfall than they need. Areas from the parklands into Southwestern Manitoba may receive more than 50 to over 100 mm of rain.  Areas east of these fronts specifically western red river valley into eastern Manitoba will not be impacted by these thunderstorms so the heat will be a concern over the weekend into early next week heading into see late next week which will put a lot of peoples health at risk for heat strokes and breathing issues. For more information on how the heat impacts people particularly elderly and children Visit http://www.manitoba.ca/health/publichealth/environmentalhealth/heat.html

The Heat will continue This weekend into late next week when a brief reprieve will occur with thunderstorms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will continue into the end of next week throughout much of the Central and Southern regions of Manitoba. 

   

  

Severe weather Threat followed by Heat and Humidity

The end of this week looks unsettled with a chance for showers and thunderstorms on the day Thursday before conditions stabilize and start to heat up for the weekend . Read on to find out more

Southern Manitoba will experience a warm da y on the day Thursday with southerly winds ushering in  warm temperatures. Also temperatures on Thursday will rise into the mid to high 20s some areas may surpass 30 Celsius depending on location and daytime heating. The red river valley areas towards the international border are more than likely to experience daytime temperatures in the high 20s ahead of the cold front . Humidex values will likely surpass the low to mid 30s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some areas reach the 35 to 38 mark tomorrow . With the heat and humidity that’s in place instability will increase   MUCAPE values reaching 1,500 to 2,500 J/KG. A cold front will enter this unstable airmass in the late afternoon to early evening promoting thunderstorm development likely NW Of this city of Brandon travelling east south east throughout the remainder of the evening hours entering the red river valley by around supper time to 9 PM. The threats from these thunderstorms will be moderate size hail frequent lightning wind gusts exceeding 70 to 80Kilometres an hour. Daytime high for Thursday of 28° in Winnipeg feeling more like 35 Celsius. For Brandon expect a high temperature of 26 Celsius feeling more like 33 with the Humidex . 

Thunderstorms will clear the province by around 10 to midnight local time overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens overnight . Clear to partly cloudy skies will be expected , a low of 16C is expected in Winnipeg, and a low of 13C in Brandon. 

The day on Friday should be fairly pleasant with the wind shifting to the north west behind the cold front . Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with high temperatures reaching the mid to high 20’s. Very little in the way of humidity is expected . A high of 28C is expected for Winnipeg , and a high of 29C for Brandon . 

Overnight on Friday expect similar conditions , with clear and settled conditions and overnight lows from 12-16C. A low of 15C for Winnipeg is expected and a low of 14C is in store for Brandon. 

The heat really kicks up over the weekend as a building a bridge of high pressure grows across the prairie provinces particularly Saskatchewan and Manitoba, it’s hard to tell at the moment but overnight lows may be in the low 20s and high temperatures in the low to mid 30s . Also of note the humidity really kick up as a southerly flow is drawn in a head of several areas low pressure which will be streaming along the ridge . Heat warning criteria may be in place this weekend will let you know and keep you updated on Friday Nights blog. 

Severe Weather Possible this week

Southern Manitoba is going to be entering A period of unsettled weather over the next couple of days as heat and humidity increases.

Tonight expect increasing moisture coming in from the states out ahead of a disturbance, Overnight lows will be quite mild tonight Low temperatures dropping into the high teens in the Southeast and lower teens in the south western portion of the province. Expect a overnight low temperature of 17 Celsius in Winnipeg and the low temperature of 14 Celsius in Brandon. 

Southern Manitoba will experience a hotter day on Tuesday , With southerly winds increasing to 50 to 60 km an hour at times bringing a strong moisture flow from the United States. High temperatures for much of southern Manitoba will be in the mid to high 20s and with Humidex values reaching into the high 30s and low 40s. A high temperature of 32 can be expected for Winnipeg and a high of 30C for Brandon. A low pressure system looks to set itself up over Southeastern Saskatchewan draping a warm front out ahead of it over southern Manitoba and allowing for a triple point to set it self up over Southeastern Saskatchewan.  In Weather terms triple points are areas where the Warm front and cold front and low meet. The main focus for severe weather will be in Southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba,  it looks like super cells will develop in Southeastern Saskatchewan at around supper time to 9 PM. Here’s what Justin says about the set up...” The early stuff is going to be mainly shower activity, maybe some non severe thunderstorms early in the day moving up from North Dakota.. 

The main event begins around 6pm near Regina Saskatchewan as suggested by the HRRR 00z run.

Those storms very well could be Supercells moving East/Northeast through you the evening hours and will have some tornado potential if they can remain discrete.”  Altogether expect a risk of severe thunderstorms, In south western Manitoba as storms move in from North Dakota and Saskatchewan it will be a risk of large hail up to golf balls wind gusts over 100 km an hour and rain fall rates over 50 mm/hr. Expect a thunderstorm risk to continue into the evening and overnight hours for Southwestern Manitoba into the red river Valley . A quick note there will be a potential risk for super cells to develop in south-central portions of Manitoba in the afternoon and evening, along a warm front as it lifts north but the cap will be strong I really do not expect thunderstorms to form. If they do expect severe weather to occur in some regions which is really hard to narrow down where exactly the cap will break or if it will. 

 Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight into the morning hours possibly, overnight lows will drop into the mid to high teens and in some areas low 20s. 

Wednesday will be a more interesting day in the south eastern portion of the province of Manitoba there may be some possibility of severe weather developing in the mid to late afternoon to early evening it all depends on where the front sets up , General guidance is showing possibility of Supercell thunderstorms developing in the red river valley or south eastern portions of the province which would give training thunderstorms over the same area for a long period of time before they move east into Ontario. One concern is areas that have already received heavy amounts of rain in the border regions of Minnesota and North Dakota in the south east corner, May receive more rainfall that could lead to severe flooding my hope is that this set up favours the more westerly location as this would provide rainfall for the Rivervalley and some portions of the Southeast. There will be a potential for supercell thunderstorms capable of possibly producing Tornadoes in the SE, Large hail and winds from 80-100km/h.Regardless on Wednesday expects the same set up with heat and humidity, temperatures reaching into the high 20s low 30s, with humidex values getting in to the high 30s and above 40C. High temperature of 31C for Brandon, and a high of 32C for Winnipeg .  Wednesday night expect thunderstorms to clear the province by about mid to late evening and if they form in Southeastern regions they may not be out of the province until after midnight . 

Expect a cold front to clear the province by about mid evening to overnight, on Wednesday. Overnight lows for Wednesday are expected to be a bit cooler overnight low as well drop to 15 Celsius for Brandon And a low temperature of 16 Celsius for Winnipeg. 

The remainder of the week looks possibly unsettled with a area of low pressure that affected us moving into Ontario stalling out over Manitoba for the day on Thursday with the risk for possible severe weather once again in limited areas , (to be determined in future model runs) . Into the rest of the week looks dryer and cooler with the relief from the heat and humidity. 

Showers and thunderstorms with a severe threat for the weekend

The prairie provinces will be entering an unsettled stretch Of weather over the next couple of days, .

12 Zulu NAM NEST. Model suggesting possible severe weather  in the Southeast and Red River Valley sections on Sunday Evening. 

18Z HRR model showing possible supercells in North Dakota and Manitoba on Sunday Evening. 

Another HRRR run at 18z guessing possible thunderstorms in the evening coming in from North Dakota. Models are all over the place. 

The outlook for the day Saturday looks to be fairly unsettled A area of low pressure centre in Central Saskatchewan will drape a warm front over much of southern Manitoba allowing for a southerly to southwesterly flow to be established. They’re also is an area of rain in south western Manitoba associated with, The area of low pressure that is situated off in Saskatchewan a long the warm sector. A warm front will gradually shift north and east during the daytime into the evening. It looks like the air is dryer than normal in southeastern sections of Manitoba which is limiting the moisture content for rain to occur so there is a slight chance that Winnipeg and eastern areas of Manitoba May see rain this afternoon and evening but most of it will occur in south western portion of the province. Latest model data that it shows the area of rain drifting north as the afternoon goes on there may be a chance that rain will develop further east but looks slight at this time. There also is a slight risk of severe weather in south western portion in the border region. High temperatures This afternoon into this evening want to be in the 15 to 20 Celsius degree range for those in central importance of Manitoba and in 20 to 25° range for areas of central and southern Manitoba. Expect the high temperature of 23 Celsius in Winnipeg and and Brandon expected high temperature of 21 Celsius. Winds will be out of the south to south east for this Late afternoon and evening.

Things get a little bit more interesting overnight into Sunday model Guidance seems to be showing an area of thunderstorms blossoming in North Dakota along side a LLJ with some showers there appears to be more of a severe threat in North Dakota down near the American border then in southern Manitoba. Looks like thunderstorms will develop in western North Dakota shortly after sunset as a upper level disturbance drives north and east. Thunderstorms are likely to cross into Manitoba shortly after 9 PM local time or 10 PM. Expect a general non-severe threat with gusty winds heavy rainfall, There is a chance for marble or a Pea size hail. However if you live in south western portion of Manitoba there appears to be a risk of severe weather this evening to the midnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms should clear the province shortly before sunrise at around 330 to 4 AM. Expect winds to be out of the east to Southeast overnight temperatures overnight will drop in the 10 to 15° range some areas in along the border may see 15 to 20 Celsius temperatures. Expect a low temperature of 16 Celsius in Brandon, And a low temperature of 14 Celsius in Winnipeg.

Things will heat up on the day on Sunday. A southerly flow will allow for a hot and humid air mass to filter into southern Manitoba. Winds will be gusty  out of the south from 60 to 70 km an hour. So ensure you have your items in the backyard tied down . High temperatures in much of the region, will be in the mid to high twenty celcius range. High temperature of 28 Celsius is expected for Brandon and a high temperature of 27 Celsius is expected for Winnipeg. It will also be humid in most southern regions of the province with dew points reaching the mid to high teens and low twenties.  This should supply for Ample storm fuel for the mid to late evening.  CAPE keeps look to be in the 2000 and 3000 Joules/Kg and Lifted Indicies,  -7 to -10 for  and Supercell composite  between 4 to 7 for Sunday evening allowing a supply for supercell developments either in North Dakota or in southern Manitoba depending on where the on best Shear sets up. Which in general consensus looks to be in Northern North Dakota. If thunderstorms manage to form in southern Manitoba expect them to become super cellular with a possibility that some of them could be tornado producers with large hail and damaging winds. If storms form in North Dakota expect them to form into a squall line and gradually move north into southern Manitoba by in the mid to late evening hours. Model data is all over the place at the moment so I have to keep you updated. Overall we may expect thunderstorms to develop and impact southern Manitoba on Sunday evening there will be a severe threat. Thunderstorms should clear the province towards the early to mid morning hours I will not be a complete washout. overnight Lows will drop in to the 15 to 20°C range.  It will be humid overnight.

And the rest of the week Monday through Tuesday expect cooler than average temperatures behind your blood pressure system with only high temperature of 15 to 20 Celsius expected for Winnipeg and southern Manitoba on Monday, And the same can be expected for Tuesday with some remaining showers and scattered thunderstorms. Expect pleasant conditions and sunny skies and mixed clouds for the beginning of the week.

An update on my health; Showers and thunderstorms to give way to pleasant conditions for the end of the week.

Well I’m back after being in hospital and is recovering at home from pneumonia, I was planning on creating some blog posts over the past two weeks because of my severe illness I haven’t been able been able to up date since May 15. There has been some active weather between the period of May 15 and June 3 we had a couple rounds of thunderstorms and a couple waves of heat . I experience one of the thunderstorms while I was sick at home and in the hospital just so you guys know I am doing a little bit better still recovering I am not in full pneumonia at the moment. I should be 100% in the next couple of weeks.

Let’s get ahead on the weather for the next few days and have a look at our weekends weather situation.

Southern Manitoba is now in a summer pattern ,were expecting beautiful temperatures to continue as a result of the polar jetstream being far north as Nunavut and Hudson Bay. Manitoba and the prairie provinces will be under the influence of a zonal jetstream over the next couple of  days which will allow for a westerly or southwesterly flow to be in place throughout the rest of the week.

The day ahead for Wednesday be a hot one , The day should start fairly sunny temperatures will boost Ahead into the mid to high twenties for some regions along the southerly flow with the trough that will move through the region.  Other Areas in Central and southern regions can expect highs to reach into the low to mid twenties . I’m expecting a high temperature of 27 Celsius in Brandon and 28 Celsius in Winnipeg.  Winds will kick  out of the south ahead of an area of low pressure , that will be the main focus for the day on Wednesday. This system will be the focus  for thunderstorm development in the south west portion of the province into the red river valley for the mid afternoon into the evening hours. There will be a narrow band of between 500 to 1000 CAPE, With dew points in 10 to 15° range it should be enough to provide for thunderstorm development, I’d be more concerned if the dew points were in the 5 to 10° range which would indicate a lack of moisture, However that isn’t the case so there should be sufficient mid level moisture. With the conditions it looks to provide heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds when thunderstorms occur. Although non-severe thunderstorms will be prevalent there’s a slight risk that a couple of them may become slightly severe.

For the night on Wednesday expect any thunderstorms and showers to clear the province by mid evening temperatures will drop into the 10 to 15° range, for much of central and southern Manitoba, Overnight with winds light out of the west. Except mainly clear skies, Leading to some areas in rural regions of the province being a little cooler than normal for overnight lows closer to eight or nine degrees if your out in the open.

The day on Thursday It’s going to be one of those nicer days with clear and partly cloudy skies, An area of low pressure will be in the central portion of the province allowing for a southerly  to southwesterly flow and temperatures rising into the 20 to 25° range for much of the southern portion of province. Although Swan River and by Lake Winnipeggosis might be a bit cooler around 10 to 15 Celcius. I would expect a high temperature of 23 Celsius for Winnipeg,  And a high temperature of 21 Celsius for the city of Brandon.

Thursday night . The Low pressure that sat over the province will start departing the Province in the early morning  . As a result maybe a little bit cooler than average for some temperatures are expected to drop in the 5 to 10°C range in the south western portion in the province and 10 to 15°C in the south eastern portion of the province.

Friday will be a little bit cooler than this past week as the area of low pressure that we had sitting over the province will move into northern Ontario by mid afternoon Friday . Although not much in the difference of a temperature shift,  temperatures instead of being in the 20 to 25° range will be in the 15 to 20 Celsius range for much of the forecast areas , if you’re in Interlakes temperatures will only be in the 10-15°C range . Along the American border may be closer to the 21-23 Celsius range . For Winnipeg I expect a high temperature of 19°C,  for Brandon I expect a high temperature of 18C.

Friday night will be a cooler than average night there may be a risk for frost as a northerly flow takes place, Justin and I will keep you updated on the overnight lows in the river valley towards the MB escarpment and central western portion to the province may drop between 0 to 5 Celsius overnight. If you’re in eastern portion of the province  including the white shell  and extreme southern portion of the province you will not be at much risk of frost as temperatures are expected to be between five and 10 Celsius overnight. For Winnipeg expected low temperature of +3 Celsius with the risk of frost for Brandon I expect a low temperature of +2 Celsius with the risk of frost and areas further north towards Dauphin may be at a lower temperature around zero Celsius. Areas north of Winnipeg and  the interlakes may in fact experience frost overnight.

We in Manitoba weather centre and my Twitter page SouthMBWeather will keep you updated on this potential risk of frost towards the end of the week.

Over the weekend expect gradual warming and temperatures in the mid to high 20s, With pleasant conditions expected through Saturday and Sunday no precipitation is expected until the beginning of the week next week. As another Potent low pressure system looks to set itself up over the southern central prairie provinces chances of showers or thunderstorms may occur towards the beginning of the week next week.