Hot and Humid Weather Continues, Severe Weather Threat Midweek

A Ridge which has placed itself over Eastern Saskatchewan over the past few days continues to be the culprit for heat and humidity, over southern regions of Manitoba into the interlake. This pattern looks to continue for a while with another few rounds of severe weather possible this week . 

(Above ) a look at the severe weather threat for the day on Tuesday . Potential exists for thunderstorms to spread east into the Red River Valley in the evening . Map Information From Environment Canada. 

Overnight lows tonight will not drop much as a continued Southerly flow will keep temperatures in the low twenties some areas may drop between fifteen and twenty Celsius in the Red River Valley . If not expect low twenties in general , There is a possibility overnights of severe weather occurring in extreme south western portions of Manitoba though most of the storms to skirt the US border and remain in North Dakota.

The attention shifts over to Tuesday  temperatures will be in the high twenties to low thirties with humidex values in the high thirties to mid forties. Areas that may see the low to mid 40°C range would be along the American border sneaking into the Winnipeg and Red River Valley regions . A high temperature of 32C can be expected on Tuesday in Winnipeg feeling like 39-41C.  In Brandon on a high temperature of 30C feeling like 39C is expected . A severe weather threat exists through the afternoon and evening for much of southern regions of the province into the Interlakes possibly,  a cold front will be slicing through that hot and humid air mass that will be in place throughout the day time.   Thunderstorms look to possibly develop in the early to mid afternoon hours , with the risk of Supercell thunderstorms with large hail up to golf ball size or smaller heavy rain in excess of 75 to 125 mm and a small risk of a tornado in the southwestern portions of Manitoba.  Justin mentions that there is a possibility of another squall developing in the late afternoon  impacting southwestern Manitoba with another 1 to 5 inches of rain possible before the Thunderstorms move east into the western red river valley and into the red river valley and Winnipeg. Before weakening in eastern Manitoba.  As they move east there is a threat for 50 to 100 mm of rain wind gusts over 100 km an hour heal up to the size of toonies to ping pong or golf ball. Despite the threat for heavy rain it would give areas in the red river valley a well needed rain fall given the dry conditions currently. There is a possibility for thunderstorms to train again in south western Manitoba and miss the red river valley if that happens there will not be any rainfall occurring in areas that need it most I will keep you updated along with Justin throughout the day on Tuesday for the outcome as it is extremely hard to predict where exactly thunderstorms will occur we can only go on model guidance. Best outcome based on data would be thunderstorms initiate in Saskatchewan and then gradually spread north east with further development possible in the southwest portion of the province if thunderstorms to form they will be severe throughout  the afternoon and evening. 

Thunderstorm should clear on Tuesday overnight should also be a gradual temperature drop overnight with Lowe’s in the mid to high teens with urban areas closer to 20° overnight. Hello temperature of 18 Celsius for Brandon and low temperatures of 21 Celsius for Winnipeg.

A cold front should clear the province by mid afternoon on Wednesday bringing in pleasant conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Instead of mid high 20s temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s was some areas just surpassing 25 Celsius mix of sun and cloudy with some sun can be expected. A high temperature of 28 Celsius can be expected in Winnipeg and a high temperature of 26° in Brandon. 

On the night Wednesday westerly winds will usher in cooler conditions behind the cold front . Cooler  overnight lows Wednesday night will be the night with low temperatures in the low to mid double digits some areas in rural regions may see the temperature closer to 10°C if you’re lucky. A low temperature of 14 Celsius can be expected in Brandon at a low temperature 17 Celsius can be expected in Winnipeg.

The second half of the week looks to be more unstable. As the heat returns with Higher dew points,  increasing amounts of instability Ahead of  multiple low pressure systems. It is extremely difficult to narrow down where the severe weather threats will occur but as models have shown there is a potential for severe weather throughout southern Manitoba for the rest of the week into the weekend before conditions cool off to start next week. Behind the ridge as it moves east .