Showers and thunderstorms with a severe threat for the weekend

The prairie provinces will be entering an unsettled stretch Of weather over the next couple of days, .

12 Zulu NAM NEST. Model suggesting possible severe weather  in the Southeast and Red River Valley sections on Sunday Evening. 

18Z HRR model showing possible supercells in North Dakota and Manitoba on Sunday Evening. 

Another HRRR run at 18z guessing possible thunderstorms in the evening coming in from North Dakota. Models are all over the place. 

The outlook for the day Saturday looks to be fairly unsettled A area of low pressure centre in Central Saskatchewan will drape a warm front over much of southern Manitoba allowing for a southerly to southwesterly flow to be established. They’re also is an area of rain in south western Manitoba associated with, The area of low pressure that is situated off in Saskatchewan a long the warm sector. A warm front will gradually shift north and east during the daytime into the evening. It looks like the air is dryer than normal in southeastern sections of Manitoba which is limiting the moisture content for rain to occur so there is a slight chance that Winnipeg and eastern areas of Manitoba May see rain this afternoon and evening but most of it will occur in south western portion of the province. Latest model data that it shows the area of rain drifting north as the afternoon goes on there may be a chance that rain will develop further east but looks slight at this time. There also is a slight risk of severe weather in south western portion in the border region. High temperatures This afternoon into this evening want to be in the 15 to 20 Celsius degree range for those in central importance of Manitoba and in 20 to 25° range for areas of central and southern Manitoba. Expect the high temperature of 23 Celsius in Winnipeg and and Brandon expected high temperature of 21 Celsius. Winds will be out of the south to south east for this Late afternoon and evening.

Things get a little bit more interesting overnight into Sunday model Guidance seems to be showing an area of thunderstorms blossoming in North Dakota along side a LLJ with some showers there appears to be more of a severe threat in North Dakota down near the American border then in southern Manitoba. Looks like thunderstorms will develop in western North Dakota shortly after sunset as a upper level disturbance drives north and east. Thunderstorms are likely to cross into Manitoba shortly after 9 PM local time or 10 PM. Expect a general non-severe threat with gusty winds heavy rainfall, There is a chance for marble or a Pea size hail. However if you live in south western portion of Manitoba there appears to be a risk of severe weather this evening to the midnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms should clear the province shortly before sunrise at around 330 to 4 AM. Expect winds to be out of the east to Southeast overnight temperatures overnight will drop in the 10 to 15° range some areas in along the border may see 15 to 20 Celsius temperatures. Expect a low temperature of 16 Celsius in Brandon, And a low temperature of 14 Celsius in Winnipeg.

Things will heat up on the day on Sunday. A southerly flow will allow for a hot and humid air mass to filter into southern Manitoba. Winds will be gusty  out of the south from 60 to 70 km an hour. So ensure you have your items in the backyard tied down . High temperatures in much of the region, will be in the mid to high twenty celcius range. High temperature of 28 Celsius is expected for Brandon and a high temperature of 27 Celsius is expected for Winnipeg. It will also be humid in most southern regions of the province with dew points reaching the mid to high teens and low twenties.  This should supply for Ample storm fuel for the mid to late evening.  CAPE keeps look to be in the 2000 and 3000 Joules/Kg and Lifted Indicies,  -7 to -10 for  and Supercell composite  between 4 to 7 for Sunday evening allowing a supply for supercell developments either in North Dakota or in southern Manitoba depending on where the on best Shear sets up. Which in general consensus looks to be in Northern North Dakota. If thunderstorms manage to form in southern Manitoba expect them to become super cellular with a possibility that some of them could be tornado producers with large hail and damaging winds. If storms form in North Dakota expect them to form into a squall line and gradually move north into southern Manitoba by in the mid to late evening hours. Model data is all over the place at the moment so I have to keep you updated. Overall we may expect thunderstorms to develop and impact southern Manitoba on Sunday evening there will be a severe threat. Thunderstorms should clear the province towards the early to mid morning hours I will not be a complete washout. overnight Lows will drop in to the 15 to 20°C range.  It will be humid overnight.

And the rest of the week Monday through Tuesday expect cooler than average temperatures behind your blood pressure system with only high temperature of 15 to 20 Celsius expected for Winnipeg and southern Manitoba on Monday, And the same can be expected for Tuesday with some remaining showers and scattered thunderstorms. Expect pleasant conditions and sunny skies and mixed clouds for the beginning of the week.