Severe Weather Possible this week

Southern Manitoba is going to be entering A period of unsettled weather over the next couple of days as heat and humidity increases.

Tonight expect increasing moisture coming in from the states out ahead of a disturbance, Overnight lows will be quite mild tonight Low temperatures dropping into the high teens in the Southeast and lower teens in the south western portion of the province. Expect a overnight low temperature of 17 Celsius in Winnipeg and the low temperature of 14 Celsius in Brandon. 

Southern Manitoba will experience a hotter day on Tuesday , With southerly winds increasing to 50 to 60 km an hour at times bringing a strong moisture flow from the United States. High temperatures for much of southern Manitoba will be in the mid to high 20s and with Humidex values reaching into the high 30s and low 40s. A high temperature of 32 can be expected for Winnipeg and a high of 30C for Brandon. A low pressure system looks to set itself up over Southeastern Saskatchewan draping a warm front out ahead of it over southern Manitoba and allowing for a triple point to set it self up over Southeastern Saskatchewan.  In Weather terms triple points are areas where the Warm front and cold front and low meet. The main focus for severe weather will be in Southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba,  it looks like super cells will develop in Southeastern Saskatchewan at around supper time to 9 PM. Here’s what Justin says about the set up...” The early stuff is going to be mainly shower activity, maybe some non severe thunderstorms early in the day moving up from North Dakota.. 

The main event begins around 6pm near Regina Saskatchewan as suggested by the HRRR 00z run.

Those storms very well could be Supercells moving East/Northeast through you the evening hours and will have some tornado potential if they can remain discrete.”  Altogether expect a risk of severe thunderstorms, In south western Manitoba as storms move in from North Dakota and Saskatchewan it will be a risk of large hail up to golf balls wind gusts over 100 km an hour and rain fall rates over 50 mm/hr. Expect a thunderstorm risk to continue into the evening and overnight hours for Southwestern Manitoba into the red river Valley . A quick note there will be a potential risk for super cells to develop in south-central portions of Manitoba in the afternoon and evening, along a warm front as it lifts north but the cap will be strong I really do not expect thunderstorms to form. If they do expect severe weather to occur in some regions which is really hard to narrow down where exactly the cap will break or if it will. 

 Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight into the morning hours possibly, overnight lows will drop into the mid to high teens and in some areas low 20s. 

Wednesday will be a more interesting day in the south eastern portion of the province of Manitoba there may be some possibility of severe weather developing in the mid to late afternoon to early evening it all depends on where the front sets up , General guidance is showing possibility of Supercell thunderstorms developing in the red river valley or south eastern portions of the province which would give training thunderstorms over the same area for a long period of time before they move east into Ontario. One concern is areas that have already received heavy amounts of rain in the border regions of Minnesota and North Dakota in the south east corner, May receive more rainfall that could lead to severe flooding my hope is that this set up favours the more westerly location as this would provide rainfall for the Rivervalley and some portions of the Southeast. There will be a potential for supercell thunderstorms capable of possibly producing Tornadoes in the SE, Large hail and winds from 80-100km/h.Regardless on Wednesday expects the same set up with heat and humidity, temperatures reaching into the high 20s low 30s, with humidex values getting in to the high 30s and above 40C. High temperature of 31C for Brandon, and a high of 32C for Winnipeg .  Wednesday night expect thunderstorms to clear the province by about mid to late evening and if they form in Southeastern regions they may not be out of the province until after midnight . 

Expect a cold front to clear the province by about mid evening to overnight, on Wednesday. Overnight lows for Wednesday are expected to be a bit cooler overnight low as well drop to 15 Celsius for Brandon And a low temperature of 16 Celsius for Winnipeg. 

The remainder of the week looks possibly unsettled with a area of low pressure that affected us moving into Ontario stalling out over Manitoba for the day on Thursday with the risk for possible severe weather once again in limited areas , (to be determined in future model runs) . Into the rest of the week looks dryer and cooler with the relief from the heat and humidity.