Severe Weather Threat for Saturday , seasonable end to the weekend

Southern Manitoba is at risk for another round of severe weather this afternoon and this evening, with extreme heat and humidity in place as a cold front slides through the region . (Below: A photo of what it could look like around supper time for Southern regions including the Red River Valley. Note storms might be a bit more organized as they have developed earlier and further west than this model suggested )

The day ahead will be an active day as a cold front slides through southern Manitoba, high temperatures today are expected to be in the low to mid 30’s, with hunidex values surpassing the 40C mark up to 45C in some locations . As the day progresses there will be a large pool of CAPE of more than 2,000J/Kg and Bulk Shear around 30 to 40 knots , across a large section of the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba, of concern though will be the CAP a CIN of around 20-50J/Kg could prevent storms from developing. Once the cold front goes through storms might be able to overcome the cap . If they do there’s a chance the storms will become severe enough for large hail up to Golfball or orange size , and wind gusts over 110Km/h. Storms will likely enter the Red River Valley after forming in the far western regions of the Red River Valley by the Manitoba lakes region . Storms will mostly be in a broken line , but if there’s enough time for them to tap into the shear there may be a better probability of forming into a solid line . 

Storms should exit the province by the evening hours. 

Lows tonight will be in the high teens , a low of 16C is expected for Brandon and 17C for Winnipeg . Clear conditions will also be present after the storms blow through . 

Sunday should be a calmer and quieter day weather wise with less humidity . High temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 20’s and overnight lows in the mid teens are expected. A high of 26C is expected for Winnipeg and a High of 24C for Brandon. 

The beginning of the week looks like it’ll be pleasant and sunny . There will be building high pressure into the province as temperatures moderate and instead of reaching the 30’s , they will be more comfortable in the mid to high 20’s with little humidity only for the day Monday. However , the heat really cranks up on Tuesday into Wednesday. Storms are possible towards the middle and end of the week .