Cooler than average weather to continue, pattern change on the way.

Southern Manitoba will continue to be under the influence of a arctic high pressure system for the second half of the week, the province will also be on the northern edge of a ridge building in the states.  Find out when this cold snap will end and more on the expected pattern below. 

Wednesday: Wednesday will start off with sunny skies a area of high pressure will be sitting over central portions of Manitoba. Temperatures for the region will start off fairly cold but will warm throughout the day. I’m expecting temperatures to rise into the high minus double digits (-15 to -18C) with areas around the lakes in the Low minus20s (-20 to -25C). Winnipeg: Sunny, high -18C, windchill -23C in the afternoon. Extreme windchill -33C in the morning. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy in the early evening. High -18C, windchill -26C, extreme windchill -34C in the morning. 

Wednesday night: There will be a low pressure system sitting off in Northwest United States ahead of this , areas of cloud cover will filter in throughout the night into the morning. Expect increasing clouds with mostly cloudy skies expected by morning. Temperatures will drop into the high minus double digits (-15 to -19C) in the southwest and south central regions, areas in the southeast into the eastern portions will see lows (-20 to -25C). Windchills won’t be as bad as they were on Wednesday morning with temperatures in the mid minus 20’s near -30C for southern sections (-22C to -30C). Winnipeg: Partly cloudy becoming cloudy by morning. Low -18C. Windchill -25C in the morning. Brandon: Partly cloudy then cloudy, low -18C. Windchill -26C in the morning. 

Thursday: This will be the day the temperatures, moderate the arctic High pressure system moves off into northern Ontario. Behind it a southerly flow will replace the north westerly flow that was previously in place. Cloudy skies are expected during the day with some patches of sun peaking through in the southeast. Temperatures during the afternoon will rise into the high minus single digits (-5 to -9C) for portions of extreme southern sections of Manitoba near the American border reaching the central red river valley including Winnipeg. Areas north of the transcanada highway will see temperatures in the low minus double digits (-10 to -15C). Windchills however will still be in the high minus double digits (-15 to -20C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, high -10C, windchill-16C. Brandon: Cloudy. High -11C, windchill -18C. 

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies are expected nothing in the way of precipitation it is forecast either, there may be some clearing in Southeastern sections of Manitoba otherwise mostly calm nights. Temperatures are expected to be in the low minus double digits in the south western portion of Manitoba (-10 to -15C) and in the mid minus double digits (-15 to -18C) in the south eastern portion of Manitoba. Note that the further you go temperatures will drop substantially with temperatures in the high minus double digits in Interlakes and parklands regions (-18 to -22C). Wind chills for the region from Central Manitoba in between the northern and southern sections of the lakes, to the American border will see windchill values in the mid to high -20s. (-20 to -31C). Winnipeg: Cloudy. Low -14C, windchill -25C. Brandon: Cloudy. Low -12C, windchill-26C. 

Friday: It looks like this approaching area of no pressure will move into Manitoba by Friday evening, mostly cloudy skies are expected for the day with a chance for flurries in the afternoon. Temperatures for the region will soar into the mid to high minus single digits (-5 to -10C). Windchill’s however will be in the mid minus double digits. (-10 to -15C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, 30% chance of flurries in the afternoon . High -7C, windchill -14C. Brandon: Mostly Cloudy, 30% chance of flurries in the afternoon . High -8C, windchill-14C. 

The weekend: Looks likely that an area of low pressure will be moving into the region bringing a chance for some snow, although nothing major. A stronger system will be bypassing the province impacting Minnesota and the high plain states where a blizzard looks likely. That won’t be hitting Manitoba however. Temperatures were also moderate as a westerly flow takes over during the weekend , with values returning to the mid to high minus single digits.

Unsettled and windy Transition into Colder Weather

 Southern Manitoba will be off to a rocky start for the second half of the week another area of low pressure will slide through the central portion of Manitoba bring long with it strong gusty winds and the potential for snow and blowing snow as well. A pattern change is on the way too, find out more below . Note the Swan River and Dauphin forecasts will return on Friday or Saturday. 

Wednesday: An area of low pressure will sit over central portions of Manitoba, and will gradually move east throughout the day into Ontario by evening. The day will start off and continue as cloudy for a majority of southern Manitoba. Model data is all over the place at the moment, however looking at the consensus there appears to be a band of freezing rain and mixed precipitation moving through the red river valley during the late morning hours should be in the eastern portion to Manitoba by mid morning. Another band of heavy snow will move east into the white shell by afternoon . Followed by shortly after lunch another batch of rain and snow will move south from the inter lakes into southern Manitoba particularly the red river valley and points east. As that band of rain and snow next moves south east into south eastern Manitoba, expect it to turn over to heavy snow in certain sections. 

One thing of note, winds on Wednesday will be blowing out of the north west and west from 60 km an hour gusting to 90 to 110km/h TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS in southwestern sections of Manitoba into the western Red river valley. Winds will be slightly weaker as you head into the red river valley, however they will still be gusting to 80km/h with a small chance of gusts over 90km/ those winds will move east through the afternoon into the evening. (Photo on the left). Temperatures for the afternoon will rise into the low minus single digits (-1 to -5C) in western portions of southwestern Manitoba into northern inter lakes and southeastern Manitoba, with sections in South Central and portions of southwestern Manitoba including interlakes where the temperatures will rise a few degrees above zero (0 to 3C). Winnipeg: Cloudy 60 percent chance of flurries in the morning, then rain mixed with snow beginning in the afternoon. Wind becoming west 60 gusting to 80-90km/h in the afternoon.  High 3C. Brandon: Cloudy, 60 percent chance of flurries in the morning and early afternoon. Winds west/ northwest 60 gusting to 80-100km/h in the afternoon. High 0C.

Wednesday night: An arctic cold front will be moving south throughout the night ahead of this some squalls of snow and small areas of snow and blowing snow will occur. Behind the front an influx of arctic air will drive south into regions of southern Manitoba and Central Manitoba, clear skies calm winds will aid in temperature is dropping low minus double digits for overnight lows (-10 to -17C) with windchills in the low to mid-20s. Areas in southwestern Manitoba will be spared by this only seeing -5 to -10C overnight lows. Winnipeg: Cloudy, Periods of snow mixed with rain ending in the early evening then cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Clearing after midnight. Low -14C, windchill -24C. Brandon: Cloudy 60 percent chance of flurries with blowing snow in the evening . Then clear. Winds 40 gusting to 60km/h overnight. Low -10C windchill -15C. I will say that areas in northern Manitoba will see windchills from -30°C to -46C. 

Thursday: And arctic cold front will be signing south into the Dakotas throughout the day behind it a large area of Arctic air will filter in, as a result expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies in the morning and early afternoon with sunny skies expected towards the later half of the day. No precipitation is expected however. Daytime high temperatures are expected to rise into the low minus double digits to mid minus double digits (-10 to -15C), the colder temperatures will occur over Lake Winnipeg and areas in the interlakes surrounding the lake. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, high -13C. Brandon: Partly cloudy. High -12C. 

Thursday Night: Another cold front will dive southeast gradually during Thursday night,  another band of light snow will develop and impact the parklands into the Interlakes by morning. Partly cloudy skies mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight. Temperatures for overnight will Stay in the low to mid minus double digits (-10 to -15C) with Varying temperatures as you travel throughout the south. The eastern portion of Manitoba however will see temperatures drop into the -15 to -20C range. Winnipeg: Clear becoming mostly cloudy by morning, low temperature -15°C. Brandon: clear then Mostly cloudy. Low temperature -14C. 

Friday: As mentioned above the cold front will stall out over southern Manitoba during the afternoon, the light area of snow that moved through in the overnight will continue to move through Manitoba through the morning hours. Mostly cloudy skies should be expected throughout the day. Areas along a line from Elkhorn or Virden , Brandon and points east along the trans Canada will be a dividing line between temperatures in the low minus double digits to the North (-10 to -15C) and the high minus single digit temperatures to the south (-5 to -10C). Winnipeg: Periods of snow in the morning then cloudy, high temperature -10°C. Brandon periods of snow ending late in the morning then cloudy. High temperature -10°C.

Friday Night: It looks like an area of low pressure will move east through the region bring another chance for a shot at snow. Consensus is hard to tell at this point how much we will get but it looks like it might be something to watch as we get closer. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus double digits to mid minus double digits (-10 to -15C), then rise into The high minus single digits (-4 to -10C) in the southwest part of the province  . Then the low minus double digits in the south central part of the province (-10 to -13C) . With temperatures remaining in the mid minus double digits in the southeast (-12 to -16C). Winnipeg:Cloudy, flurries or snow beginning by morning. Temperature -13°C rising to -9°C by morning. Brandon: Cloudy periods of snow beginning after midnight, temperature -10°C rising to -7°C by morning.

***Details on the rest of the second half of the week to follow later today , I wrote this at three in the morning I could not finish the rest was exhausted. ****

Warmer than average Weather continues

 Southern Manitoba has experienced a warmer than average temperature pattern over the past month, this trend looks to continue as areas of low pressure ride along a westerly flow along the northern end of a ridge. This pattern looks to break down come the second half of the week. Read on to find out how that will affect us more . Below.

Monday night: An approaching trough of low pressure will move into the area overnight into the morning. A westerly flow will be dominant through the night, this will help as usual to keep our temperatures well above the normal. Cloudy skies should be in place for areas of Southeastern Manitoba, mainly shortly before and after midnight. Then extreme eastern portion of Manitoba mostly cloudy skies overnight, areas in south western Manitoba and the red river valley as well as inter lakes could also be at risk for fog developing. Clear skies are forecasted in Southwestern sections of the province. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to high minus single digits (-5 to -10C), with areas in the western sections of Manitoba’s escarpment getting slightly below to near -10C (-10 to -15C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, then partly cloudy overnight. Fog patches. Low -9C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, fog patches. Low -11C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, low -6C. Swan River: Partly cloudy. Low -9C. 

Tuesday: A large trough of low pressure will sit stationary over southern Manitoba and central Manitoba, along with an attendance low pressure system in northern Manitoba.  Ahead of this trough sunny skies mixed in with mostly to partly cloudy skies are expected. It’ll be mild as well and I’m already seeing indications that temperatures in eastern areas of southwestern Manitoba, the red river valley and sections of the parklands will see the mercury rise above 0C. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, high 1C. Brandon: Partly cloudy high -1C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy high 2C. Swan River: Sunny and partly cloudy. High -1C. 

Tuesday Night: A warm front will be approaching Southern Manitoba and sections of central Manitoba throughout the night. Increasing amounts of cloud cover is expected throughout the night into the morning, I would not be surprised to see overcast conditions come in the morning hours. Temperatures will be mild again overnight sitting in the mid to high minus single digits overnight into Wednesday (-4 to -10C). and will be well above there seasonal normals. Winnipeg: Cloudy. Low -7C. Brandon: Cloudy, low -5C, Dauphin: Cloudy, low -4C. Swan River: Cloudy, low -5C. 

Wednesday (complicated forecast subject to change): Will be one of the more interesting days of the week, a warm front looks sit along the border of Manitoba. North of it an occluded front and a low pressure system will sit in eastern Saskatchewan moving into Manitoba by evening. The good or bad news (whatever your take is in this) is that there won’t be any significant snowfall, however there appears to be a chance for a small band of freezing rain or mix of snow and rain in the afternoon into evening. The bad news is once temperatures warm we may see plain rain fall in the evening into the overnight, depending on temperatures some areas could see freezing rain (freezing rain only happens when temperatures are near 0C) there may be a period or 2 of freezing rain or rain/snow mix but the majority will likely fall as rain.  (see forecast for temperatures below). Temperatures will sit in the low minus single digits during the daytime sections of southern Manitoba especially over lake Manitoba and points south. There will also be places in the southeastern, southwestern half of Manitoba, escarpment and interlakes getting above 0C. The majority of the region will see temperatures into the plus side of the low to mid single digits by evening in the southwest and late evening in the southeast. I don’t expect much in the way of accumulating snow or rain , in general 1 to 5mm of rain or freezing rain. Winnipeg: Cloudy, with 30 percent chance of showers or flurries. High 1C.  Brandon: Cloudy, rain mixed with snow  beginning in the late afternoon with a risk of freezing rain. Temperature -1C in the afternoon. Dauphin: Cloudy, Rain mixed with freezing rain beginning in the late afternoon. High +1C. Swan River: Cloudy Rain mixed with freezing rain late in the afternoon. High +1C

Wednesday Night: Cloudy skies are expected for those not getting any form of precipitation, what will be bizzare about overnight as we typically see we won’t actually get a transition over to snowfall. The band of rain that impacts southwest Manitoba in the late afternoon will impact southeastern portions of Manitoba by evening, there may also be a risk of freezing rain as this band moves east overnight. Temperatures will oddly rise into the low single digits by mid evening persisting above zero for most of, if not half of the night. A drop in temperatures towards the mid minus single digits will occur in a west to east fashion , starting in the west after midnight to the east shortly before sunrise. This makes the southwest see los temperatures in the mid minus single digits (-5 to -8C) and areas in the southeast in the low minus single digits (-1 to -6C). Winnipeg: Cloudy. Rain with the risk of freezing rain near midnight. Temperature 3C, falling to -2C by morning. Brandon: Cloudy. Rainshowers ending  in the evening then cloudy. Temperature 1C in the evening falling to -5C overnight. Dauphin: Rainshowers with freezing rain ending in the early evening, then cloudy. Temperature 2C falling to -5 by morning. Swan River: Rain mixed with freezing rain ending early in the evening, then cloudy. Temperature +1°C falling to -5C by morning. 

Second half of the week: There appears a possibility for another low pressure system to impact southern Manitoba looks like it may bring winter storm conditions. This will have to be monitored as feature model runs come in . Current model runs do not suggest the same severity and intensity of snowfall. We will update you as the latest data comes in. As for temperatures they will be more seasonable in terms of cold for this time of year as a NW flow takes place however it will not be the same cold we are used to , where temperatures are usually in the mid -20s. Instead or daytime highs will be in the upper minus single digits and overnight lows in the minus double digit temperatures.

Unusually Bizarre mild January weather Continues.

 Happy New Year everyone!! As we continue the new year southern Manitoba will continue to be impacted by a bizarre ,unseasonably warmer than normal weather pattern over the coming days. Multiple ridges of high pressure will continue to amplify the upper pattern over the coming days allowing for these warmer than normal temperatures to continue. Read on to find out how our weather will be for the second half of the week. 

Above: Temperatures on Thursday will be well above normal for this time of year, 10 to 28C above normal in much of Manitoba. This trend looks to continue over the coming weeks thanks to ridges that keep building over the prairie provinces. 

Thursday : Southern regions of Manitoba will experience a cloudy day, a trough of low pressure will be situated in the southwest part of Manitoba into the  parklands and northern Manitoba. A Narrow band of freezing rain and mixed precipitation well set up itself a long a line from the parklands into the northern Interlake region. Flurries will occur elsewhere in southwestern Manitoba. It will die off towards the evening hours. Temperatures for the region will rise into the low to mid minus single digits for areas of southwest, southeast, southern and central inter lakes and the red river valley areas (-1 to -5C). Areas in the parklands and northern inter lakes will hover around or slightly below 0C. Winnipeg: Cloudy, high -4C. Brandon: Cloudy, high -1C. 

Thursday night: A area of high pressure will be off to the east overnight allowing for a southerly flow to draw in warmer than normal air. Cloudy skies should be in place for the region as a area of low pressure skirts the border of Saskatchewan and North Dakota. Mild conditions will be in place overnight, under mainly cloudy skies low temperatures will drop and remain in the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -8C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, low -4C. Brandon: Cloudy, low -1C.

Friday: Southern regions of Manitoba will start the day under mainly cloudy skies , there will be a chance for some flurries across southern sections of the province including the red river valley, inter lakes and southwestern Manitoba. Not much in the way of accumulation is expected though. High temperatures will once again soar into the low to mid minus single digits with a few areas in the Brandon and surrounding regions rising into 0 to 2C range (whoa). Expect light winds out of the south 20 to 40km/h. Winnipeg: 30% chance of flurries. High -2C. Brandon: Cloudy, 30% chance of flurries high +1C. 

Friday Night: A large ridge of high-pressure will continue to sit over the southern prairie provinces overnight into Saturday, thankfully it will allow for calm conditions with cloudy skies in place. There may be a few scattered flurries, overnight lows will drop into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -8C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, 30 percent chance of flurries. Low -3C. Brandon: Cloudy. 30 percent chance of flurries low -2C. 

The weekend: Looks like the warmer than normal temperature pattern will continue through the weekend, with daytime highs in the mid minus single digits (-1 to -8C). Overnight low temperatures will start to cool into the low to mid minus double digits overnight on Sunday into Monday. Enjoy the warm weather, we’re in the dead of winter , it could end at anytime !! 

Happy New Year and Blessings to all for 2021

 

Hello everyone wanted to wish you guys a happy new year! I hope that your holidays were wonderful and had a chance to spend time with family and friends, I didn’t really update much over the past two weeks I got myself a little bit of a break from updating. I had a wonderful holiday time with my family and friends socially distanced of course, I hope it was the same for you all.  I really hope that 2021 is a lot better of a year than 2020 for you all and that there is a lot of opportunities for seeing and capturing more different weather events this year. I might even start storm chasing on my own . 

Also I’m going to start forecasting for central Manitoba this year along with northern Manitoba following suit probably in a month after I practice looking over model data more up north. I’ll have a update later on tonight for the weather ahead . Thursday-Saturday.