Warmer than average Weather continues

 Southern Manitoba has experienced a warmer than average temperature pattern over the past month, this trend looks to continue as areas of low pressure ride along a westerly flow along the northern end of a ridge. This pattern looks to break down come the second half of the week. Read on to find out how that will affect us more . Below.

Monday night: An approaching trough of low pressure will move into the area overnight into the morning. A westerly flow will be dominant through the night, this will help as usual to keep our temperatures well above the normal. Cloudy skies should be in place for areas of Southeastern Manitoba, mainly shortly before and after midnight. Then extreme eastern portion of Manitoba mostly cloudy skies overnight, areas in south western Manitoba and the red river valley as well as inter lakes could also be at risk for fog developing. Clear skies are forecasted in Southwestern sections of the province. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to high minus single digits (-5 to -10C), with areas in the western sections of Manitoba’s escarpment getting slightly below to near -10C (-10 to -15C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, then partly cloudy overnight. Fog patches. Low -9C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, fog patches. Low -11C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, low -6C. Swan River: Partly cloudy. Low -9C. 

Tuesday: A large trough of low pressure will sit stationary over southern Manitoba and central Manitoba, along with an attendance low pressure system in northern Manitoba.  Ahead of this trough sunny skies mixed in with mostly to partly cloudy skies are expected. It’ll be mild as well and I’m already seeing indications that temperatures in eastern areas of southwestern Manitoba, the red river valley and sections of the parklands will see the mercury rise above 0C. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, high 1C. Brandon: Partly cloudy high -1C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy high 2C. Swan River: Sunny and partly cloudy. High -1C. 

Tuesday Night: A warm front will be approaching Southern Manitoba and sections of central Manitoba throughout the night. Increasing amounts of cloud cover is expected throughout the night into the morning, I would not be surprised to see overcast conditions come in the morning hours. Temperatures will be mild again overnight sitting in the mid to high minus single digits overnight into Wednesday (-4 to -10C). and will be well above there seasonal normals. Winnipeg: Cloudy. Low -7C. Brandon: Cloudy, low -5C, Dauphin: Cloudy, low -4C. Swan River: Cloudy, low -5C. 

Wednesday (complicated forecast subject to change): Will be one of the more interesting days of the week, a warm front looks sit along the border of Manitoba. North of it an occluded front and a low pressure system will sit in eastern Saskatchewan moving into Manitoba by evening. The good or bad news (whatever your take is in this) is that there won’t be any significant snowfall, however there appears to be a chance for a small band of freezing rain or mix of snow and rain in the afternoon into evening. The bad news is once temperatures warm we may see plain rain fall in the evening into the overnight, depending on temperatures some areas could see freezing rain (freezing rain only happens when temperatures are near 0C) there may be a period or 2 of freezing rain or rain/snow mix but the majority will likely fall as rain.  (see forecast for temperatures below). Temperatures will sit in the low minus single digits during the daytime sections of southern Manitoba especially over lake Manitoba and points south. There will also be places in the southeastern, southwestern half of Manitoba, escarpment and interlakes getting above 0C. The majority of the region will see temperatures into the plus side of the low to mid single digits by evening in the southwest and late evening in the southeast. I don’t expect much in the way of accumulating snow or rain , in general 1 to 5mm of rain or freezing rain. Winnipeg: Cloudy, with 30 percent chance of showers or flurries. High 1C.  Brandon: Cloudy, rain mixed with snow  beginning in the late afternoon with a risk of freezing rain. Temperature -1C in the afternoon. Dauphin: Cloudy, Rain mixed with freezing rain beginning in the late afternoon. High +1C. Swan River: Cloudy Rain mixed with freezing rain late in the afternoon. High +1C

Wednesday Night: Cloudy skies are expected for those not getting any form of precipitation, what will be bizzare about overnight as we typically see we won’t actually get a transition over to snowfall. The band of rain that impacts southwest Manitoba in the late afternoon will impact southeastern portions of Manitoba by evening, there may also be a risk of freezing rain as this band moves east overnight. Temperatures will oddly rise into the low single digits by mid evening persisting above zero for most of, if not half of the night. A drop in temperatures towards the mid minus single digits will occur in a west to east fashion , starting in the west after midnight to the east shortly before sunrise. This makes the southwest see los temperatures in the mid minus single digits (-5 to -8C) and areas in the southeast in the low minus single digits (-1 to -6C). Winnipeg: Cloudy. Rain with the risk of freezing rain near midnight. Temperature 3C, falling to -2C by morning. Brandon: Cloudy. Rainshowers ending  in the evening then cloudy. Temperature 1C in the evening falling to -5C overnight. Dauphin: Rainshowers with freezing rain ending in the early evening, then cloudy. Temperature 2C falling to -5 by morning. Swan River: Rain mixed with freezing rain ending early in the evening, then cloudy. Temperature +1°C falling to -5C by morning. 

Second half of the week: There appears a possibility for another low pressure system to impact southern Manitoba looks like it may bring winter storm conditions. This will have to be monitored as feature model runs come in . Current model runs do not suggest the same severity and intensity of snowfall. We will update you as the latest data comes in. As for temperatures they will be more seasonable in terms of cold for this time of year as a NW flow takes place however it will not be the same cold we are used to , where temperatures are usually in the mid -20s. Instead or daytime highs will be in the upper minus single digits and overnight lows in the minus double digit temperatures.