Unsettled Weekend on the way.

 

Much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing a cooler and wetter pattern as a result of a constant trough (or dip in the jet stream) of low pressure that has been moving through the Canadian prairies provinces. The good news is that is expected to end, not without some chances for thunderstorms on Saturday. Details on our weekend below. A fairly calm weekend is expected ahead, except for the day on Saturday. There will be a low pressure system moving into the province on Saturday, ahead of the occluded front there will be a chance for showers but clearing skies are expected by afternoon with sunny skies by afternoon. Temperatures are expected to rise into the high teens and low 20’s in much of southern Manitoba.

 (A look at what could happen on Saturday with the current model data, severe weather is possible near and including Winnipeg, Red River Valley Saturday afternoon on this SHARPY sounding). Humidex values will reach near 30C for the Red River Valley regions. Increasing amounts of instability are forecast during the afternoon, with about 2,000J/Kg of CAPE or convective energy (enough for severe thunderstorms). There will be a risk for thunderstorms during the afternoon, some severe with large hail, strong winds and heavy rainfall.  I’m expecting them to develop in the afternoon. The best risk for severe thunderstorms will be in the Red River Valley. 

There will also be a risk for funnel clouds in the parklands portion of Manitoba, including Dauphin.  I’m expecting storms to exit the province by late evening. Overnight calm conditions should exist heading into Sunday . Temperatures will remain in the mid teens for overnight lows on Saturday. Sunday will be a sunny and partly cloudy much calmer day thanks to an area of high pressure over the northern plains, with high temperatures in the high teens to low 20’s with the warmest weather near the American border. The same overnight lows are expected in much of southern Manitoba on Sunday night (10 to 17C). 

Next Week: Heading into the week multiple low pressure systems look to move across southern Manitoba and the prairies. There is also a increasing chance we will see temperatures in the low to mid 20’s or warmer than 25C. There is also a risk for showers and thunderstorms and some severe thunderstorms are possible.   

Another blog will come on Monday. Enjoy your weekend ! 

Hot Weather gradually ends on wet and unsettled note

Much of southern Manitoba has been seeing thunderstorms occur the past 2 nights in areas of southwestern Manitoba with the cool and cloudy conditions in place, with the majority of the heat and humidity off in southeastern Manitoba. Also there has been some wild temperature swings over the past 2 days, with temperatures in the mid to high teens and low 20’s in the southwest to mid to high 20’s and low 30’s in the southeast. Read on to find out how long the heat will hold on in southeastern Manitoba, and when we can expect thunderstorms to move in as well.

(Above: Rainfall totals for Friday-Sunday. Upwards of 75-100mm is possible in the southwest with 50-75mm possible in the southeast). Thursday: Sunny skies are expected during the morning in the southeast corner of the region, thunderstorms will  be ongoing in the morning for areas of central Manitoba as well as the interlakes region before they clear by near noon. Cloudy skies are likely in much of the southwest part of the province with a chance for showers, sunny weather likely in the southeastern half of the province. Heading into the afternoon there will be a risk for thunderstorms mainly in the western, central Red river valley, interlakes and eastern Manitoba as a stationary front sits over the region. There will be a risk for severe weather as well, mainly large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures for the day on Thursday will sit in the mid to high teens in southwestern Manitoba with a sharp temperature contrast as you head east into southeastern sections , once you get to pilot mound, northeast to st Claude and into the interlakes and Victoria beach east to bissett and the MB border south to the American border temperatures, will sit in the high 20’s to the low 30’s. Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms. High 29C. Portage La Prairie: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the evening with risk of a thunderstorm.  High 21C. Brandon: Cloudy, with 30% chance of showers, risk of a thunderstorm high 17C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers high 14C. 

Thursday Night: Heading into Thursday night a large portion of southern Manitoba, will be under cloudy skies except for the red river valley and southeast Manitoba as a trough of low pressure sits over southwestern Manitoba. There will be a risk for thunderstorms in the southeastern half of Manitoba in the evening. Some showers will drift into the region overnight in southwestern sections with a chance of weak thunderstorms in the southwest, however the bulk of the rain will be coming in during Friday. Temperatures overnight into Friday will drop into the mid to high teens for a majority of the region (14 to 18C), with the exceptions of parts of the southwest and the parklands dropping into the low to mid teens (12 to 14C). Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the evening with risk of a thunderstorm. Low 17C. Portage La Prairie: Partly cloudy: 30% chance of showers in the evening with risk of a thunderstorm low 15C. Brandon: Mainly cloudy, 60% chance of showers with the risk of a thunderstorm.  High 19C. 

Friday: Will end up being one of the more unsettled days weather wise , a cold front and trough will be exiting the province by evening. Behind this front a large area of showers and thunderstorms will blossom in North Dakota during the afternoon hours, this will eventually end up spreading northwards into southern sections of Manitoba and southeast Manitoba. Timing and amounts are still uncertain, however it looks as though there may be a batch of showers moving through in the morning and early afternoon before another line of showers and thunderstorms moves into the area during the late afternoon. Rainfall Amounts will likely end up being anywhere between 25 to 75mm of rain. There is a possibility that some of the storms may reach severe limits, especially in the Red River valley and southeastern Manitoba. Large hail , and damaging winds will be the risk.  Winnipeg: Cloudy, with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, risk of a severe thunderstorm. High 23C. Portage La Prairie: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms and risk of a severe thunderstorm. High 18C. Brandon: Cloudy, periods of rain beginning in the afternoon. High 14C. Dauphin: Cloudy , periods of rain beginning in the afternoon. High 12C. Friday Night a majority of the showers and thunderstorms will occur during thi time. Some may be severe only in the southeast though, storms that developed will weaken or leave the province in the late evening, showers should persist into the overnight period for the southeast, Red River valley and interlake regions. Temperatures will drop significantly for a large amount of the area, instead of low 20C overnight lows we will be seeing low teens (10 to 14C) with some areas getting as cold as 10C. Winnupeg: Cloudy with 60% percent chance of showers or thunderstorms in the evening. Risk of a severe thunderstorm. Then mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the evening and overnight. Low 11C. Portage La Prairie: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms, risk of a severe thunderstorm in the evening. Then mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers. Low 12C. Brandon: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms. Low 10C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms. Low 11C. 

The Weekend: Showers will persist into Saturday afternoon before clearing conditions take over, Sunday can expect another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain in the mid to high 20’s for daytime highs and the lows in the low to mid teens. 

Heat ushers in thunderstorm chances.

 NEW INFO: The blogs from here on out will have shorter overnight forecasts unless there is significant weather expected. 

Much of southern Manitoba is in store for very hot conditions over the coming days, and it’s no surprise considering how our summer has been so far we have had already 5-10 heatwaves. A high pressure system off in the NE USA and Ontario is resulting in this persistent heat, with ridging over our area. This heat will likely come to an end over the coming days as a cold front pulls through. Find out when this heat will end and what we can expect for thunderstorms , below.

 

Monday Night: A cold front will be sitting over the region tonight into Tuesday, there will be a risk for thunderstorms in areas of the Red River Valley into eastern Manitoba. There is a possibility that some of them might end up being severe, however capping appears to be present so there will be a very low risk of anything developing. Overall hazy conditions are likely as smoke drifts in from the fires in British Columbia, which may result in smoke being brought down to ground level at times. Temperatures will drop into the high teens to low 20’s (17 to 23C) for a majority of the south with the warmest weather occurring in the southeastern half of Manitoba and the coolest occurring in the western half of Manitoba by Dauphin. Winnipeg: Risk of a thunderstorm this evening, clear low 21C. Brandon: Clear, local smoke and haze. Low 19C. Dauphin: Clear, local smoke and haze. Low 18C. 

Tuesday: Will end up being hot again, sunny skies and local smoke will once again be in play. A cold front will be sitting by the American border during the afternoon  It will also be one of Temperatures will soar into the high 20’s (25 to 30C) and low 30’s (30 to 35C)for much of southern Manitoba. The dividing line of temperatures from high 20’s and low 30’s will be through just south of Riding mountain national park , into the interlakes to just south of Bissett. Winnipeg: Mainly sunny, then 30% chance of showers in the late afternoon with risk of thunderstorms. High 32C. Humidex 38C. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers. Risk of thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Local smoke high 32C . Dauphin: Sunny , then partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers. Risk of thunderstorms late in the afternoon high 32C. 

Tuesday Night: Indications are that there will be enough instability built up from in the afternoon to evening for thunderstorm development some severe by mid to late evening. (Photo above shows the amount of most unstable CAPE available for thunderstorms on Tuesday night if the cap breaks). However because of capping there will be a low risk for any thunderstorms to develop. There will be a risk for large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and as stated by ECCC a risk for gusts of 90-100km/h (IF storms can break the xap and develop) The risk for thunderstorms and severe weather appears to be from Riding mountain national park south to the American border east towards Winnipeg and eastern Manitoba with CAPE in excess of 2,000J/Kg. Essentially all of southern Manitoba will be at risk for thunderstorms and some severe thunderstorms during the evening into the overnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens (15 to 20C) in the southwestern half of Manitoba while , low to mid 20’s (20 to 25C) are forecast in the southeastern half of Manitoba. Winnipeg: Clear, then partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers with risk of thunderstorms in the evening. Low 21C. Brandon: Partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms in the evening and after midnight. Low 15C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15C. 

Wednesday: Will be one of the less unstable days, a small band of showers and thunderstorms will move through central portions of Manitoba , and parts of the interlakes in the morning hours.  Sunny skies are expected for the afternoon, capping will prevent thunderstorms from developing despite there being a low pressure system sitting over the area. Areas in all of southern Manitoba will have a chance at showers and thunderstorms during the day, lower risk further east. Whether they will be severe depends on the dynamics. We’ll look more on Wednesdays post.  Temperatures will soar into the mid to high twenties to the low 30’s (25 to 35C). A few areas in extreme southern sections of Manitoba may have a chance at seeing high 30C temperatures. Winnipeg: Sunny. High 33C. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 40% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms. High 25C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers with risk of thunderstorms high 17C. 

Wednesday Nigbt: Clear skies are expected for the night however areas through southwestern Manitoba into the parklands and interlakes regions have a chance at showers and thunderstorms during that period. If the front moves far enough south there is a chance the southern half could see showers and thunderstorms that chance is low though. There is a likelihood they could stay there for the overnight period in a line mainly through the parklands into east central Manitoba. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens (13 to 18C). Winnipeg: Clear, risk of thunderstorms in the evening. Low 20C. Brandon: Clear, then partly cloudy with risk of thunderstorms in the evening. Low 16C. Dauphin: Clear, risk of thunderstorms in the evening. Low 15C.  

Second half of the week: The trough of low pressure that sat over our area during the first half of the week, will start advancing further east allowing for multiple low pressure systems to move through our area. There will be a much higher risk of seeing showers and or thunderstorms. The risk for severe weather may be there as well, it remains to be seen in the model data. Temperatures will vary from being in the mid to high twenties and low 30’s on Thursday to the high teens and low 20’s on Friday. Overnight lows even cooler sitting well into the mid to high teens for the second half of the week . 

Major heat returns for the weekend

  Much of southern sections of Manitoba can expect a return to heat as a southerly flow develops behind an area of high pressure in eastern Canada. The southerly flow will also result from a few low pressure systems approaching the province. This heat will probably end up being one of the last few heatwaves of the summer. Find out how long it will last and how hot it will get, below. 

Saturday: Will end up being one of the days that kicks off the start to a hot weekend, sunny skies aided by a southerly flow and southerly wind will allow temperatures to soar into the low to mid 30C range for a majority of the south. I’m expecting day time highs anywhere between 31C and 37C, with the majority of the heat impacting areas of the parklands and southwestern Manitoba. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 34C. Brandon: Sunny, high 35C. Dauphin: Sunny high 36C. 

Saturday Night: A trough of low pressure will sit over the central regions of Manitoba with little in the way of precipitation expected, south of this trough very warm air will sit over the region overnight. Temperatures will only drop into the high teens to low 20s , (15 to 21C) with some areas only dropping to 23C. These lows are more common in July than August. Winnipeg: Clear, low 20C. Brandon: Clear, low 20C. Dauphin: Clear, low 24C. 

Sunday: Will end up being one of the hottest days of the weekend, Sunday will end up being sunny and extremely hot. Despite a trough of low pressure sitting over the area, there will be too much capping to allow for thunderstorm development even with 1,500 to 2,000 J/Kg of CAPE. There will be a risk for thunderstorms in the interlakes and parts of the red river valley, however that will be a low chance.  Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 30’s and low 40’s with only low to mid 20’s around all of the Manitoba lakes. The best chance for 40C temperatures appear to be in the dauphin and parkland areas. There is a chance a few areas or 2 in southern sections may see 40C. Winnipeg: Sunny, risk of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon high 39C. Brandon: Sunny, risk of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon high 39C. Dauphin: Sunny, risk of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon high 40C. NEW: Victoria Beach for comparison, high 30C. 

Sunday Night: Not much of a cool down is expected overnight into Monday, clear skies are likely overnight into Monday with temperatures only reaching the mid to high teens in the parklands; southwestern Manitoba. Areas in the southeastern sections of Manitoba and the interlakes as well as the red river valley only dropping into the low to mid 20’s. Winnipeg: Clear, low 25C. Brandon: Clear, low 18C. Dauphin: Clear low 18C. 

The week ahead: There are some indications that the heat will stick around for the first half of the week, with a return to mid to high 30s and low 40C temperatures possible in some parts of Manitoba, overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 20C range. There will also be a risk for thunderstorms as well on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Severe thunderstorms mixed in with a heat smoothie

 Much of southern Manitoba will be at risk for some unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, as a low pressure system comes in from Montana. There may be some more unsettled weather behind it, the heat will also continue. Find out how hot it will get below.

 

Monday : Sunny skies are likely to start off the day in the morning as a area of high pressure sits over the region ahead of an area of low pressure, the warm front should start lifting north along with that area of low pressure that will be centred over northern North Dakota tomorrow afternoon. This area of low pressure will be the culprit for showers and thunderstorms towards the late afternoon and evening which I will discuss more below. As for the day on Monday expect sunny skies with a chance of showers towards the latter half of the afternoon. During the late afternoon if enough daytime heating occurs there probably will be enough CAPE , in excess of 2,000 with 3,500 J/Kg possible in some spots especially near the border. Looking at the shear , specifically the EHI there is a slight to moderate risk of tornadoes occurring near the American border with a chance of it extending into the red river valley. This threat isn’t really expected until late afternoon. For tomorrow late afternoon and evening all things considered all of these ingredients will contribute to a area of showers and thunderstorms developing over northern North Dakota, moving into southern Manitoba in the evening. Areas that get under these thunderstorms may receive a lot of rain in a short period of time, localized flooding. As to where they develop is not certain. The higher resolution models show them forming over central North Dakota completely missing the southwest half of Manitoba, whereas other models such as the NAM, NAMNest, NSSL WRF, NSSL WRF ARW show the severe thunderstorms forming over central northern North Dakota which means they may drift into parts of southwestern Manitoba with the red river valley , Winnipeg , southeastern Manitoba, and the white shell under the gun for severe weather. All things considered a Moderate risk of severe thunderstorms are forecast over the southern half of Manitoba tomorrow, with a slight risk further north from the eastern half into the interlakes, and western Manitoba. What this means is that in the moderate risk area (see photo above)there is a chance for, wind gusts up to 110 km/h, hail up to 2-4cm , an isolated tornado or 2, rainfall in excess of 50mm which may lead to localized flooding , if any as it had been so dry . Regardless our daytime high temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s, with a large area of low 30’s expected in southeastern Manitoba. Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Risk of severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon. High 31C. Brandon: Partly cloudy then 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, risk of severe thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 22C. Dauphin: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers. Risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High  21C.

Monday Night: Thunderstorms will clear the province towards the latter half of the evening as the low pressure system lifts into northern Ontario. Severe weather will possibly persist into shortly after midnight for areas of eastern Manitoba.  Mainly clear skies are expected towards the latter half of the night. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid to high teens (10 to 15C).  Winnipeg: 60% chance of showers or Thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Risk of severe thunderstorms. Low 13C. Brandon: 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms in the evening , then clearing low 13C. Dauphin: Cloudy 40% chance of showers in the evening and after midnight then clearing. Risk of a thunderstorm. Low 17C. 

Tuesday : Much of southern Manitoba is expecting to have a much calmer weather day on Tuesday. A cold front will be coming into the province by the late afternoon, sunny skies are expected for the day before increasing clouds and a slight chance of some showers are possible.  High temperatures for the day on Tuesday will soar into the mid to high twenties for the afternoon . Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 26C. Brandon: Cloudy then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon high 23C. Dauphin: Cloudy, showers beginning in the afternoon high 17C. 

Tuesday Night: Clearing skies are expected into the overnight period for much of the region, with temperatures dropping into the mid to high teens. Winnipeg: Clearing low 14C. Brandon: Clearing low 11C. Dauphin: Clearing low 12C. 

Wednesday: 

Seasonal temperatures continue. Unsettled weekend

 Much of southern Manitoba will be at risk for thunderstorms over the coming days , along with some unsettled weather. This pattern is expected as a area of low pressure is expected to travel through northern regions on Saturday and Sunday. 

Saturda: As I write this it is 3:35pm sunny skies are prevelant across the south although smoke from forest fires in northern Manitoba are drifting downwind into southern manitoba. Which continues to be causing poor air quality. A special weather statement is in place because of this we will continue to see poor air quality. We still haven’t reached our day time temperatures for the day so, I’m still expecting them to get into the mid to high 30’s for parts of southern Manitoba. Areas of the southeast part of Manitoba however are expected to only reach the high 20C range. 

Hot weather continues with risk of thunderstorms

 This blog is published a bit late as I had my second COVID vaccine today and I felt a bit under the weather. This blog will be short as I don’t have a lot of time to create long blogs with my busy schedule. I’ll be getting back in the rhythm with  the longer more detailed blogs starting on Friday, for the Monday , Wednesday, Friday schedule. Much of southern Manitoba continues to be in a drought as a constant ridge sits over the prairie provinces, the good news however is that pattern appears to break down as we get into the next couple of days. 

A few areas of low pressure will move through the southern half of Manitoba , specifically on Wednesday afternoon and evening. There will be a area of showers moving through in the morning and early afternoon then risk for thunderstorms on Wednesday mainly in the interlakes, red river valley and southeastern Manitoba, some may be marginally severe with the risk of large hail and damaging winds. The risk for thunderstorms will ease towards the evening. Heading into Thursday and Friday calmer weather conditions are expected, sunny skies are expected on both days. There will be a continued risk for thunderstorms during the second half of the week whether or not there expected to be severe will be dependent on how strong daytime heating is. As for temperatures highs are expected to reach the mid to high 20’s. 

Heading into the weekend an area of low pressure will be sitting over the region, bringing a chance for showers and or thunderstorms for the latter half of Saturday. Sunny skies and calm weather are expected for Sunday.