Unsettled Weekend on the way.

 

Much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing a cooler and wetter pattern as a result of a constant trough (or dip in the jet stream) of low pressure that has been moving through the Canadian prairies provinces. The good news is that is expected to end, not without some chances for thunderstorms on Saturday. Details on our weekend below. A fairly calm weekend is expected ahead, except for the day on Saturday. There will be a low pressure system moving into the province on Saturday, ahead of the occluded front there will be a chance for showers but clearing skies are expected by afternoon with sunny skies by afternoon. Temperatures are expected to rise into the high teens and low 20’s in much of southern Manitoba.

 (A look at what could happen on Saturday with the current model data, severe weather is possible near and including Winnipeg, Red River Valley Saturday afternoon on this SHARPY sounding). Humidex values will reach near 30C for the Red River Valley regions. Increasing amounts of instability are forecast during the afternoon, with about 2,000J/Kg of CAPE or convective energy (enough for severe thunderstorms). There will be a risk for thunderstorms during the afternoon, some severe with large hail, strong winds and heavy rainfall.  I’m expecting them to develop in the afternoon. The best risk for severe thunderstorms will be in the Red River Valley. 

There will also be a risk for funnel clouds in the parklands portion of Manitoba, including Dauphin.  I’m expecting storms to exit the province by late evening. Overnight calm conditions should exist heading into Sunday . Temperatures will remain in the mid teens for overnight lows on Saturday. Sunday will be a sunny and partly cloudy much calmer day thanks to an area of high pressure over the northern plains, with high temperatures in the high teens to low 20’s with the warmest weather near the American border. The same overnight lows are expected in much of southern Manitoba on Sunday night (10 to 17C). 

Next Week: Heading into the week multiple low pressure systems look to move across southern Manitoba and the prairies. There is also a increasing chance we will see temperatures in the low to mid 20’s or warmer than 25C. There is also a risk for showers and thunderstorms and some severe thunderstorms are possible.   

Another blog will come on Monday. Enjoy your weekend !