Severe thunderstorms mixed in with a heat smoothie

 Much of southern Manitoba will be at risk for some unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, as a low pressure system comes in from Montana. There may be some more unsettled weather behind it, the heat will also continue. Find out how hot it will get below.

 

Monday : Sunny skies are likely to start off the day in the morning as a area of high pressure sits over the region ahead of an area of low pressure, the warm front should start lifting north along with that area of low pressure that will be centred over northern North Dakota tomorrow afternoon. This area of low pressure will be the culprit for showers and thunderstorms towards the late afternoon and evening which I will discuss more below. As for the day on Monday expect sunny skies with a chance of showers towards the latter half of the afternoon. During the late afternoon if enough daytime heating occurs there probably will be enough CAPE , in excess of 2,000 with 3,500 J/Kg possible in some spots especially near the border. Looking at the shear , specifically the EHI there is a slight to moderate risk of tornadoes occurring near the American border with a chance of it extending into the red river valley. This threat isn’t really expected until late afternoon. For tomorrow late afternoon and evening all things considered all of these ingredients will contribute to a area of showers and thunderstorms developing over northern North Dakota, moving into southern Manitoba in the evening. Areas that get under these thunderstorms may receive a lot of rain in a short period of time, localized flooding. As to where they develop is not certain. The higher resolution models show them forming over central North Dakota completely missing the southwest half of Manitoba, whereas other models such as the NAM, NAMNest, NSSL WRF, NSSL WRF ARW show the severe thunderstorms forming over central northern North Dakota which means they may drift into parts of southwestern Manitoba with the red river valley , Winnipeg , southeastern Manitoba, and the white shell under the gun for severe weather. All things considered a Moderate risk of severe thunderstorms are forecast over the southern half of Manitoba tomorrow, with a slight risk further north from the eastern half into the interlakes, and western Manitoba. What this means is that in the moderate risk area (see photo above)there is a chance for, wind gusts up to 110 km/h, hail up to 2-4cm , an isolated tornado or 2, rainfall in excess of 50mm which may lead to localized flooding , if any as it had been so dry . Regardless our daytime high temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s, with a large area of low 30’s expected in southeastern Manitoba. Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Risk of severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon. High 31C. Brandon: Partly cloudy then 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, risk of severe thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 22C. Dauphin: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers. Risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High  21C.

Monday Night: Thunderstorms will clear the province towards the latter half of the evening as the low pressure system lifts into northern Ontario. Severe weather will possibly persist into shortly after midnight for areas of eastern Manitoba.  Mainly clear skies are expected towards the latter half of the night. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid to high teens (10 to 15C).  Winnipeg: 60% chance of showers or Thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Risk of severe thunderstorms. Low 13C. Brandon: 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms in the evening , then clearing low 13C. Dauphin: Cloudy 40% chance of showers in the evening and after midnight then clearing. Risk of a thunderstorm. Low 17C. 

Tuesday : Much of southern Manitoba is expecting to have a much calmer weather day on Tuesday. A cold front will be coming into the province by the late afternoon, sunny skies are expected for the day before increasing clouds and a slight chance of some showers are possible.  High temperatures for the day on Tuesday will soar into the mid to high twenties for the afternoon . Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 26C. Brandon: Cloudy then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon high 23C. Dauphin: Cloudy, showers beginning in the afternoon high 17C. 

Tuesday Night: Clearing skies are expected into the overnight period for much of the region, with temperatures dropping into the mid to high teens. Winnipeg: Clearing low 14C. Brandon: Clearing low 11C. Dauphin: Clearing low 12C. 

Wednesday: