Unsettled weather makes a return.

 Much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing average temperatures and calm weather over the past week and a half, that trend looks to continue. The only thing is that we can expect some slightly unsettled weather and possibly a tad colder weather. Read on to Find out what we can expect weather wise and how cold things will get. 

(Above: Rain is expected for the day on Wednesday into Thursday. Amounts will vary, it won’t be a wash out but in general I’m only expecting 5-10mm maybe even 15mm in sections of the white shell)

Wednesday: Will end up being a cool and cloudy to start off, an approaching area of low pressure and trough off in southwestern Manitoba in the morning will move into the red river valley and eastern sections of the province by afternoon. Ahead of it a southerly flow will bring in showers for the afternoon and some of them may end up being heavier in some regions of the southeast. On average amounts are expected to be between 5-10mm, with 15mm possible in some localities. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to high single digits (5 to 10C). The exception being southwestern Manitoba , where the sun might be able to come out with those places seeing highs in the high single digits to the low teens (10 to 15C). 

Wednesday Night: Showers are expected to continue for the evening hours in the red river valley and the southeast, with the exception of the southwestern half of Manitoba seeing clear skies. Cloudy skies are expected to stick around in the east overnight into the morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits overnight (2 to 5C), some places may even get as cold as the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C) especially just west of lake Manitoba.

Thursday: A northwesterly flow will take over and as a result cloudy skies are expected in the southeastern half of Manitoba during the day, the good news is that this will clear by the late afternoon hours. Sunny skies are expected in western Manitoba including the pembina valley just west of the red river valley. Temperatures will suffer however and won’t rise much in areas with heavier cloud, high single digits and low to mid teens are likely in the southwest part of Manitoba (8 to 14C). Areas in the southeast, interlakes and eastern sections can only expect to see highs in the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C). Dress Warm!! 

Thursday Night: Clear skies are likely for a majority of southern Manitoba, the exception being southeastern sections where fog is possible. It’s hard to tell on the cloud cover forecast model. Regardless, I’m expecting temperatures to drop into the low to mid minus single digits overnight. (-1 to -4C) The exception will be areas of parts of the parklands, and the Manitoba lakes where lows will stay above freezing in the low single digits (1 to 4C).

Friday: The forecast gets a bit more tricky on Friday an area of low pressure will be moving into the region not only bringing increasing clouds on the north side of it with a chance of showers for some sections, but also helping boost temperatures for parts of the south. Larger areas of showers will develop in the second half of the day towards the late afternoon in the interlakes and western and eastern central Manitoba. Temperatures on the day Friday will soar into the low to mid teens with areas as far north as Dauphin seeing those temperatures as Far East as Winnipeg and just east of the Red River Valley. The exception being the interlakes and parts of eastern Manitoba where highs will only reach the high single digits (7 to 9C). 

A peak at Friday Night and the weekend: Rainy conditions are expected with a majority of that happening on Friday night, on the backside of that system on the weekend cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely. Maybe even a chance for flurries on Sunday. Temperatures will once again sit in the low to mid single digits for daytime highs and overnight lows a couple degrees below or above zero during the overnight. Sunday will of course be the coldest of the weekend. We’ll talk about the snow more on Friday’s blog more in detail though. 

Warm Weather comes to an end

I just got back from a bike ride and I really enjoyed the  summer like weather we’re getting for the second time this fall. As you know much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing warmer than average temperatures with the average daytime highs getting 10-15 degrees above average, that pattern looks to break down however. A cold front will be cutting across Manitoba tonight into Tuesday. The unfortunate part of this is that our second summer will disappear. Better get out your pumpkin spice coffee or tea, and your warm blankets. Maybe might even need to turn on your furnace. Ugh the dreaded slow but deadly return to winter, I guess we don’t have to worry about Michael Meyers running around.  If you dare to read about Frosty the snowman . Find out how cold it will get and how long it will last for read on. 

Monday Night: An advancing cold front will move through the region over night into Tuesday, with it increasing cloud cover will fill into the area. A small chance of showers may come along with it as well. As for temperatures, we’re looking at temperatures dropping into the low to mid single digits (2 to 7C). The coldest of the temperatures look to be mainly in the extreme western half of Manitoba, the warmer side of temperatures look to be in parts of the southwest into the eastern half of Manitoba and the interlakes. 

Tuesday: A arctic high pressure system will begin moving into the province, bringing in temperatures cooler than what we have been used to. Add on that cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday. Much of the region will see highs in the mid to high single digits (5 to 7C). It appears our daytimehigh numbers are pulling a April fools joke. 

Tuesday Night: A northerly flow will aid in clearing cloud cover mainly in southeast Manitoba, however western Manitoba cloudy skies are likely once again. The northerly flow will allow temperatures to drop drastically especially in the southeastern half and western portions, where lows will drop in the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C). Areas in the western half of Manitoba might even see lows of -5C. Areas from just west of Winnipeg into the interlakes regions and parts of western Manitoba will see lows in the low single digits (1 to 2C). 

Wednesday: An adjacent area of high pressure will be sitting over the northern prairies, a northwesterly flow will be in place during the day. Cloudy skies are likely in the early afternoon, before sunny skies expected to filter in. Unfortunately a mix of sun and some cloud cover will prevent any significant warming occurring in the southwest.  Sunny skies are still expected in the southeast. Temperatures for the day are likely to end up being in the mid single digits (5 to 8C), talk about a cold fall day. 

Wednesday Night: Clear skies are expected however a batch of cloud cover will develop in the southwestern half of Manitoba overnight into the early morning with cloudy skies filling in for the rest of the region. Temperatures will vary from being a couple degrees above zero in the pembina valley, and just south and southwest of Lake Manitoba (1 to 3C) Areas in the red river valley, interlakes and western Manitoba will see lows in the low to mid minus single digits (-3 to -6C). Areas in the assessippi regions may even see lows down to -9C. 

Second half of the week: Much of the region will continue to see temperatures in the low, mid and high single digits for daytime highs. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are also expected under the presence of high pressure. No significant rainfall or snowfall is on the horizon. 

October Heat Continues, Unsettled Weather to Follow?

 Much of our region has been experiencing an unusually warm start to October, temperatures on Tuesday soared to 32C in Brandon. The hottest October temperature ever recorded, since records began in 1941. According to Justin Oertel “the previous record happened on October 5th, 2011 the High was +30.9C and October 1st, 1992 the High was +30.9C” This trend looks to continue only for a few days, as a persistent ridge of high pressure sits over our area, a trough of low pressure will move into the region by Thursday and that will begin our transition to more seasonal temperatures. Find out what this means for the weather ahead and find out what that transition will look like. 

Wednesday: During the day a large area of low pressure will sit off to our west ahead of it a southerly flow will contribute to sunny skies with some clouds in the southwestern half of Manitoba and warm temperatures for the day, again another day to get out and enjoy what’s left of summer. Temperatures for the afternoon will soar into the mid to high twenties for the area, with a chance at seeing some areas approaching or surpassing 30C (25 to 31C). Winnipeg: Sunny High 28C. Brandon: Sunny: High 27C. 

Wednesday Night: A stationary front will be sitting over central Manitoba by the overnight hours. The southerly flow will continue and not much in the way of cloudcover or precipitation is expected, temperatures will drop only into the low to mid teens, with the cooler weather expected in the western half of Manitoba. (12-14C western Manitoba), (14 to 16C eastern Manitoba). Winnipeg: Clear, low 14C. Brandon: Clear low 12C. Dauphin: Clear low 14C. 

Thursday: Some cloudy skies are likely in the morning hours ahead of a cold front for a large section of south central and southeastern Manitoba, heading into the afternoon sunny skies should begin to take over.  A cold front will begin crossing into western Manitoba come the afternoon hours, this front will begin allowing northwesterly winds to move into only the western half of Manitoba. Get outside because this will end up being the last day for any summer like warmth. Temperatures for the day will soar into the low 20’s (21-24C) in the southwest with temperatures in the southeastern half seeing highs in the mid to high 20’s (25-28C). Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 26C. Brandon: Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 22C. Dauphin: Cloudy in the morning, becoming sunny with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 21C. 

This is a snapshot of what could be thunderstorms and showers moving into the south central region of Manitoba on Thursday night. We’ll be keeping you informed on this. 

Thursday Night: During Thursday evening, a cold front will be sitting over the south central areas of Manitoba from mainly just south of lake Manitoba and points east. This front will move east southeast throughout the overnight, along and ahead of this front partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with heavier cloud expected in the southwest mainly behind the cold front. Increasing amounts of instability will be moving into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba during the overnight period. Generally 800-1,000 J/KG of CAPE can be expected, with only 100-300m2s2 for shear which means if there’s storms they won’t be organized and may only be scattered to isolated in nature. I’m expecting showers and thunderstorms to be a potential overnight from Portage La Prairie south to the American border north into the interlakes east to the MB/ON border, and south and west looping back through Winkler and Pilot Mound. The bulk of the activity occurring west of and in the Red River Valley. No severe weather is expected however, some storms could become strong however. Thunderstorms should clear by the early morning hours to near sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens in the southeast (12 to 15C) , with areas of the western half of Manitoba dropping anywhere between the mid single digits and low teens (6 to 14C).  Winnipeg: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low 15C. Brandon: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 30% chance of showers overnight. Dauphin: Mostly cloudy, clearing before morning. Low 6C.  

Friday: Will end up being one of the more unsettled days of the week, during the morning hours a batch of precipitation will be moving through the southeastern portion of Manitoba as the cold front moves into Ontario. Behind it a secondary low pressure system in North Dakota will start shifting north and a warm front attached to the cold front may end up moving north into our region. If not it will end up missing southern Manitoba but there still is a likelihood of us expecting precipitation. Regardless I’m expecting mostly cloudy skies, before another area of precipitation moves into the area during the late afternoon in southern sections of Manitoba, model data is all over the place in regards to precipitation placement and amounts. The GDPS shows a batch moving up from the dakotas in the afternoon through the evening in the southwest to the Red River Valley, while the NAM is showing nothing on Friday until late Friday evening into the overnight. Looking over the fronts and the fact that there is a marginal risk of severe storms south of the border I cannot discount a chance some or most of the showers and storms may cross over into Manitoba. Regardless expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and towards suppertime for the Red River Valley and southeastern sections, with a smaller chance of showers and thunderstorms occurring towards the latter half of the day in the southwest. Temperatures will soar only into the mid to high teens across the board with areas struggling to reach 20C. (15-18C)  Winnipeg: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon high 18C. Brandon: Partly cloudy then cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the afternoon. High 18C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy, with 30% chance of showers in the afternoon high 15C. 

Friday Night: That low pressure system I mentioned about on Friday will be sitting stationary over North Dakota overnight, with it a large area of showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected in the eastern red river valley through eastern portions of Manitoba in the early evening before clearing. The unfortunate news however is that behind this system cooler weather will filter in with it being a cooler night than expected for most. Clearer skies in the southwest will contribute to cooler than average temperatures overnight, with lows in the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C) and areas in the southeast seeing more in the way of heavier cloudcover so lows will only drop into the low teens (10 to 14C). Winnipeg: Cloudy with 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Low 12C. Brandon: Cloudy in the evening then clearing low 8C. Dauphin: Partly Cloudy, low 7C. 

The weekend: Much of Southern Manitoba will likely be seeing cloudy skies with some sun mixed in, another low pressure system looks to start moving into the area on Saturday with a chance at substantial rainfall in the Red River Valley, east/southeastern Manitoba and parts of the Pembina Valley with another chance at thunderstorms. Calmer weather is likely on Sunday as the low moves into Ontario. Daytime highs will sit in the low to mid teens, and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with Saturday nights lows being a tad warmer in the southeast around 10-15C than on Sunday Night.