October Heat Continues, Unsettled Weather to Follow?

 Much of our region has been experiencing an unusually warm start to October, temperatures on Tuesday soared to 32C in Brandon. The hottest October temperature ever recorded, since records began in 1941. According to Justin Oertel “the previous record happened on October 5th, 2011 the High was +30.9C and October 1st, 1992 the High was +30.9C” This trend looks to continue only for a few days, as a persistent ridge of high pressure sits over our area, a trough of low pressure will move into the region by Thursday and that will begin our transition to more seasonal temperatures. Find out what this means for the weather ahead and find out what that transition will look like. 

Wednesday: During the day a large area of low pressure will sit off to our west ahead of it a southerly flow will contribute to sunny skies with some clouds in the southwestern half of Manitoba and warm temperatures for the day, again another day to get out and enjoy what’s left of summer. Temperatures for the afternoon will soar into the mid to high twenties for the area, with a chance at seeing some areas approaching or surpassing 30C (25 to 31C). Winnipeg: Sunny High 28C. Brandon: Sunny: High 27C. 

Wednesday Night: A stationary front will be sitting over central Manitoba by the overnight hours. The southerly flow will continue and not much in the way of cloudcover or precipitation is expected, temperatures will drop only into the low to mid teens, with the cooler weather expected in the western half of Manitoba. (12-14C western Manitoba), (14 to 16C eastern Manitoba). Winnipeg: Clear, low 14C. Brandon: Clear low 12C. Dauphin: Clear low 14C. 

Thursday: Some cloudy skies are likely in the morning hours ahead of a cold front for a large section of south central and southeastern Manitoba, heading into the afternoon sunny skies should begin to take over.  A cold front will begin crossing into western Manitoba come the afternoon hours, this front will begin allowing northwesterly winds to move into only the western half of Manitoba. Get outside because this will end up being the last day for any summer like warmth. Temperatures for the day will soar into the low 20’s (21-24C) in the southwest with temperatures in the southeastern half seeing highs in the mid to high 20’s (25-28C). Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 26C. Brandon: Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 22C. Dauphin: Cloudy in the morning, becoming sunny with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 21C. 

This is a snapshot of what could be thunderstorms and showers moving into the south central region of Manitoba on Thursday night. We’ll be keeping you informed on this. 

Thursday Night: During Thursday evening, a cold front will be sitting over the south central areas of Manitoba from mainly just south of lake Manitoba and points east. This front will move east southeast throughout the overnight, along and ahead of this front partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with heavier cloud expected in the southwest mainly behind the cold front. Increasing amounts of instability will be moving into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba during the overnight period. Generally 800-1,000 J/KG of CAPE can be expected, with only 100-300m2s2 for shear which means if there’s storms they won’t be organized and may only be scattered to isolated in nature. I’m expecting showers and thunderstorms to be a potential overnight from Portage La Prairie south to the American border north into the interlakes east to the MB/ON border, and south and west looping back through Winkler and Pilot Mound. The bulk of the activity occurring west of and in the Red River Valley. No severe weather is expected however, some storms could become strong however. Thunderstorms should clear by the early morning hours to near sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens in the southeast (12 to 15C) , with areas of the western half of Manitoba dropping anywhere between the mid single digits and low teens (6 to 14C).  Winnipeg: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low 15C. Brandon: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 30% chance of showers overnight. Dauphin: Mostly cloudy, clearing before morning. Low 6C.  

Friday: Will end up being one of the more unsettled days of the week, during the morning hours a batch of precipitation will be moving through the southeastern portion of Manitoba as the cold front moves into Ontario. Behind it a secondary low pressure system in North Dakota will start shifting north and a warm front attached to the cold front may end up moving north into our region. If not it will end up missing southern Manitoba but there still is a likelihood of us expecting precipitation. Regardless I’m expecting mostly cloudy skies, before another area of precipitation moves into the area during the late afternoon in southern sections of Manitoba, model data is all over the place in regards to precipitation placement and amounts. The GDPS shows a batch moving up from the dakotas in the afternoon through the evening in the southwest to the Red River Valley, while the NAM is showing nothing on Friday until late Friday evening into the overnight. Looking over the fronts and the fact that there is a marginal risk of severe storms south of the border I cannot discount a chance some or most of the showers and storms may cross over into Manitoba. Regardless expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and towards suppertime for the Red River Valley and southeastern sections, with a smaller chance of showers and thunderstorms occurring towards the latter half of the day in the southwest. Temperatures will soar only into the mid to high teens across the board with areas struggling to reach 20C. (15-18C)  Winnipeg: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon high 18C. Brandon: Partly cloudy then cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the afternoon. High 18C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy, with 30% chance of showers in the afternoon high 15C. 

Friday Night: That low pressure system I mentioned about on Friday will be sitting stationary over North Dakota overnight, with it a large area of showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected in the eastern red river valley through eastern portions of Manitoba in the early evening before clearing. The unfortunate news however is that behind this system cooler weather will filter in with it being a cooler night than expected for most. Clearer skies in the southwest will contribute to cooler than average temperatures overnight, with lows in the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C) and areas in the southeast seeing more in the way of heavier cloudcover so lows will only drop into the low teens (10 to 14C). Winnipeg: Cloudy with 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Low 12C. Brandon: Cloudy in the evening then clearing low 8C. Dauphin: Partly Cloudy, low 7C. 

The weekend: Much of Southern Manitoba will likely be seeing cloudy skies with some sun mixed in, another low pressure system looks to start moving into the area on Saturday with a chance at substantial rainfall in the Red River Valley, east/southeastern Manitoba and parts of the Pembina Valley with another chance at thunderstorms. Calmer weather is likely on Sunday as the low moves into Ontario. Daytime highs will sit in the low to mid teens, and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with Saturday nights lows being a tad warmer in the southeast around 10-15C than on Sunday Night.