Heat and Humidity briefly return, late season severe weather threat arrives.

 Hello folks, this could be an interesting next few days ahead. Our region of the province will likely encounter another round of unusual warmth, humidity and summer like temperatures. Whats unusual is we have to look out for severe thunderstorms at the start of the week. Find out more about the severe weather potential and when this pattern will change and what to expect for the first half of the week. 

Monday: During the day a warm front will be expected to move into southern regions of Manitoba, this low pressure system will lift north into southern sections of Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of CAPE 1,000 to 1,500 from southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley is likely to take shape. Temperatures during the afternoon will soar into the high teens to low 20’s in much of southern sections of Manitoba, the dew point will not to be too far off from the actual temperature so the humidex values will rise into the high 20’s to low 30’s which gives the average humidity levels close to 50 to 75%.

(Above): HRRR model suggesting the possibility of severe weather in the red river valley and interlakes areas of Manitoba after development in the southwest part of Manitoba. 

NAM model below suggesting similar conditions except later in the evening, and further north.

For the day Monday, model data appears to be in agreement now place in regards to placement and timing, as last night was still all over the place. The HRRR is in agreement with a lot of the higher resolution models and the NAM, which places thunderstorms developing and moving through the southwest part of Manitoba during the morning and early afternoon. By early to mid afternoon most of the instability will have built up. The red river valley, interlakes area in Manitoba should be on the lookout for showers and thunderstorm development during the afternoon, before a slight risk for severe storms moves in by late afternoon. 

(Dave Carlsens Tweet above talking about the severe weather threat possible later tod afternoon into the evening.)
There also will be a risk area in southwestern Manitoba with higher supercell composite values with the risk for tornadic development moving east as the evening goes on. Upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex by evening is possible that could travel east into the red river valley, supercells are still possible. Despite the sun setting earlier now storms will be fuelled by a large area of 1,500 to 3,000 J/Kg of CAPE with Energy Helicity values of 1 to 4 and shear in the range of 30 to 50 knots which will be Centred over the red river valley and southeast Manitoba as the cold front moves through in the evening. Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible as they move east as a cold front Stay tuned to Manitoba weather center for updates, as well as my twitter page. 

Monday Night: Expect any thunderstorms to clear the area by evening, and late evening a northwesterly flow will take hold. Mostly cloudy skies are expected into the day on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tuesday: Another calm sunny day is in store with a cold front moving through on the day Tuesday, a small chance of showers is expected in the southeast part of Manitoba. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday Night: A high pressure system will begin to dig southwards with a large area of cloud cover, moving southwards with it. Cloudy skies are expected by the morning hours on Wednesday. 

Wednesday: Much of the same weather can be expected with cloudy skies and high temperatures only rising into the mid to high teens. Areas in more rural regions will be in the higher single digits .