Much of southern Manitoba will likely be under the gun again for significant winter weather and the likelihood of snow and blowing snow, there will be a colorado low coming up from the United States which will feed on gulf moisture on the south end of the system. I honestly hope this will be the last snowstorm to talk about this coming year. Anyways let’s have a look at the latest information that I have been able to look at through the HRRR, NAMNest and the NAM4km.
Tonight: South of the border an area of thunderstorms will develop in North Dakota and will impact areas around Fargo. Further North snow and blowing snow will be impacting areas of western North Dakota which will likely not impact our region until morning. So there will be a bit of reprieve before the main event begins. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits, except for areas of the red River valley where lows will stay around 0C. Below are photos of precipitation for Wednesday morning, in 2 scenarios, and Wednesday afternoon as well.
Scenario 1: Above
Scenario 2 Below:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Wednesday: This is by far a tricky forecast so expect 2 scenarios for the day. During the morning (above) a squall line of heavy snow could develop and push through southern Manitoba which would be the first scenario, (Above) with it there will be a hazard of freezing rain for areas along the border. Which later in the day, snow will likely move through the entire half of Manitoba. Scenario 2: A large swath of snow moves into Manitoba with areas along the international border showing a risk for freezing rain and or sleet/ice pellets. As this lifts North the risk of freezing rain and rain will begin to fill in across the southeast and south central parts of Manitoba. There is some concern for extended periods of freezing rain in western Manitoba during the day time. Mixed precipitation will be likely in areas of the red river valley west towards Brandon and the parklands until about later on in the day. Things will likely taper off by the evening. Areas further west will be under the brunt of the heavy snowfall,, snow and blowing snow there will reduce visibility to near 0km at times. Highway travel will be impossible at points, however Saskatchewan looks to bear the brunt of the heavy snow on Wednesday. Read to the end to find out rainfall and snowfall totals. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will rise into the low minus single digits for some areas a degree or 2 above zero.
Wednesday Night (Above): A full transition over to snowfall is likely as temperatures drop overnight, the snow will be covering pretty much all of the region as far North as the north interlakes. The low pressure system moves further east we will begin to switch over to the backside of the system. Snow and blowing snow at times may be heavy, winds will also gust to over 60km/h at times. Temperatures will likely stay at or slightly below zero for a large region of the south (-2C to +1C).
Thursday (Above): Heavy snowfall will likely develop across southeastern regions of southern Manitoba, before it reaches all of southern sections Manitoba. It will also likely be a wet snow as temperatures will be close to the freezing mark, near the -1 to -3C range. I am concerned about the chance that given such tight gradients that winds could likely exceed 50-70km/h. Highway travel will not be advised during the day Thursday.
Thursday Night (Above): Snow and blowing snow will continue as a double barrled low pressure system will spill moisture in from Ontario, if you’re wondering on the night Thursday if any of the snow will be less heavy. The good news is that I can tell you that it will likely be more on the moderate strength. The only concerns I have is given the prolonged nature of this snow as you will read more below is highway closures. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits varying temperatures (-1 to -4C).
Friday (Above): Snow and blowing snow will be less severe on the day Friday, there will be periods of heavier snow however winds will likely still gust up to 70km/h at times. This system will not wane down until at least Friday night. Winds will also begin to blow out of the northwest, word of encouragement if we were to go back 2 months a northwest wind would give us windchills of -20C or more. So I consider +1C to +3C a blessing, which will be our day time highs on Friday.
Friday night (Above): Snow will begin to taper off, and calmer weather will arrive finally. Overnight clearing is possible and low temperatures will drop from as warm as -4C in the east to as cold as -8C in the west. Simply put well below average.
Snowfall Totals: Much of southern sections of Manitoba look to have totals of 10 to 20cm from the border to the interlakes regions. A swath of snow from the pembina valley towards the parklands could get upwards of 30 to 40cm. Red River valley and the southwestern half of Manitoba 10 to 25+cm. So in general if melting occurs there could be a lot less accumulation than forecasted.
I know given that temperatures will be so close to above freezing this will be heavy wet snow. So there is a possibility of power outages across the south. Have a power outage plan in case you do lose power. Also do not travel unless you have to .
Thankyou for the detailed report. I appreciate that you are not quick to jump the gun and make a weather report just because it sounds exciting. You are a trustworthy source for me as a rural bus driver. My hwy is never reported on and I travel 200km each day and you’ve been the most accurate source I’ve found in the last 2-3 years.
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