Update and a look at a much warmer weather pattern headed for southern Manitoba.

 Hey Manitoban's  Mike McGregor here, I have some updates for you all on the weather pattern ahead. It's been a while since I did a blog update but I am nonetheless looking forwards to the Easter Holiday coming up on Monday. Easter is an important time of year for me as a person of Anyways on to a weather story of our own, hopeful weather is the theme this weekend. Today is the day that Jesus rose from the Grave giving us the gift of eternal life in heaven as a free Gift John 3:16, conquering death and the Grave. It is a story of hope for mankinds redemption from sin and the penalty of having to pay for it for eternity. (Romans 3:23) Jesus said when he died "It Is Finished!" (John 19;28-30) (1 Corinthians 15:1-4). He rose again 3 days later on Easter! That is the story of Easter! 

(Above: Warming pattern arriving later in the week, thanks to ridging in western Canada developing. This pattern is more typical of early spring. Hope you enjoy this outlook :-). )))

Sunday: Much of southern Manitoba will experience a beautiful day on Sunday the main jet stream is expected to be to our S with us sitting on the cooler side of the pacific jet. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely on the day into the latter half of the afternoon temperatures will remain on the above freezing side with areas in the interleakes and parklands of Manitoba including Eastern Central Manitoba may see high temperatures slightly cooler around zero to minus two degrees Celsius. Area South of the Manitoba Lakes will be basking in temperatures above zero with a pretty decent chance of seeing highs between one and four degrees Celsius on the day Sunday. It looks like Southern Manitoba will be again experiencing partly cloudy and mostly cloudy skies on Sunday night under the presence of high pressure, I'm not expecting any precipitation for Sunday night into Monday . Overnight low temperatures during Sunday night will likely drop into again the low minus single digits between minus one to minus five degrees celsius.

Monday: Much of southern Manitoba will be under the influence of the southerly flow as the high pressure moves off to the east, a warm fronts and low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba during the evening hours on Monday however it will not bring any precipitation for this forecast. Looks like temperatures on the day Monday will rise into the mid plus side single digits in the southwest part of Manitoba with areas in the southeast in the low single digits there is a possibility that some places may reach near 5 degrees if those locations are snow free during the afternoon. Monday Night: On Monday night a small disturbance is forecast to impact the western half of Manitoba into the red river valley, interlakes, and eastern manitoba later on (by morning). As it moves southeast there may be a rain snow mix but because temperatures look to remain quite mild overnight there will only be the smallest chance this completely switches over to snow. A quick 1 to 5mm of rain is likely with this quick shortwave as it moves through southern Manitoba during the overnight hours. Flurries are more likely as you travel into the central and northern interlakes areas of Manitoba. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing in the south central part of Manitoba about 1-3C. 

Tuesday: On the day Tuesday it will be our transition day into much warmer weather, a strong ridge of high pressure will be building in western Canada. A weak trough is likely to impact areas of eastern Manitoba bringing with it some residual cloudcover and winds out of the NW as the ridge builds to our west. Although it may be not as nice as Monday, our high temperatures will still rise into the 2 to 8C range with areas free of cloudy skies seeing the warmest temperatures. Areas of western Manitoba and the red river valley will be seeing much of the warmest high temperatures on Tuesday. Tuesday Night: Fog and cloudy skies are possible in the red river valley and snow covered areas, still yet to be determined. However overnight low temperatures again will be below zero from -1 to -5C. 

Second Half Of the Week: The warming temperature pattern continues, the ridging in western Canada will build into the central prairies and I also see the resulting temperatures in the 5 to 10C range midweek with overnight lows in the low to mid single digits with a increase to the 10 to 15C range by the weekend. Overnight lows will also rise into the low to mid single digits with a increase to the high single digits next weekend. Stay Tuned for more updates on this developing pattern and happy Easter!

Happy Easter!!!

Warm Above Seasonal Temperatures Persist

 Well Folk's it looks like southern Manitoba is getting another preview of early Spring weather, temperatures over the last few days have been running above seasonal, with our daytime high on Monday soaring to near record highs especially with Morden reaching a high of 14C, and Winnipeg seeing high values above 10C. This is the warmest weather that we have experienced since the month of October 2023. The overall atmospheric pattern right now is suggesting we will see a strong surge of pacific air to end this week, however that trend is looking likely to end this weekend. There is also a chance for more rain and snow on Friday. Find out when and where in this week's weather update. 

(Tonight: A strong risk for fog is likely in areas of southwestern Manitoba tonight with lower levels of risk in areas of eastern Manitoba). 

Wednesday Night: Tonight mostly cloudy skies are likely with, periods of clearing at times. The sun has been peaking out off and on this afternoon especially in areas of the red river valley. Tonight there also is a risk for for patches and some near low visibility in areas of southwestern Manitoba, as today's melted snow increases the overall moisture content in the lower levels. Snowpack density is also a lot higher in southwestern Manitoba. There is also a risk for patchy fog in southeastern Manitoba but a lot lower risk than last night. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop a degree or 2 below freezing in areas of southwestern Manitoba, the red river valley, interlakes and the parklands. There is a possibilty of snow free areas in southeastern Manitoba only staying a degree or 2 above freezing. 

Thursday: We are likely to be under the influence of high pressure on thursday, with a slight northerly flow present. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday than on the day Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies are also forecast which will may prevent some melting from happening. Even though there will be periods of sun. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower single digits (2 to 4C) in all areas of southern Manitoba and some sections of extreme southwestern Manitoba may see highs in the low minus single digits (0 to -2C). 

Thursday Night: A low pressure system will be approaching the area from the north, us being in the warm sector may allow us to briefly switch over to a westerly flow ahead of the main system. This will help keep temperatures mild on Thursday night. Overnight low temperatures will stay in the (-1C to -4C) range every where thursday night. There will be increasing clouds overnight with mostly cloudy skies by morning. 

Friday: (Above: Strong winds likely on Friday with a map of the expected precipitation in our region. Green is rain, blue is snow). This is when the weather is expected to get interesting a low pressure system is expected to move into our region with strong winds out of the west and southwest becoming more likely. Gusts of 50 to 80km/h can be expected from the northern parklands into the interlakes moving into southeastern Manitoba by the early evening. During the day most impacts will be felt along an area from the manitoba parklands, into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba mainly during the afternoon. There will be a band of rain moving into southern sections of manitoba, the edge of the rain band looks likely to be cut off at the Portage La Prairie, Elie areas with a dry frontal passage likely in western Manitoba. The rain band looks likely to only impact areas of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. This system will not be bringing any snow except for areas of Nopiming provincial park areas or the east side of Lake Winnipeg where temperatures look to support that. Temperatures appear to be too warm for any snow elsewhere. Highs across the region are expected to soar into the mid single digits in areas of the south, except areas of the northern red river valley highs will likely reach the low single digits (1 to 3C). 

Friday Night: Looks as though that the frontal system is going to be moving into northern Ontario on Friday night, with a slight northerly flow behind the system. The good news is that this system will be moisture starved so only residual flurries scattered in nature are likely, air will be cold enough to bring some lake effect streamers coming off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg. Overnight lows in the lower minus single digits are likely for areas north of highway 1 and areas south of highway and the lakes will remain above zero overnight.

The Weekend: Calm weather continues with temperatures running a degree or 2 below zero on the weekend for daytime highs with lows in the high minus single digits and low minus teens. Calm weather continues next week.

Major Winter Storm Coming to Southern Manitoba,

 Southern Manitoba get ready we are about to experience a major winter storm, one that we have not seen in over a year. Unlike the last one we had, this one will be significant. Before getting into the details, I want you all to know that the system is still developing in Montana so the outcome may be different than this forecast describes. So far areas with the worst of weather forecast is southwestern Manitoba, and the interlakes. Areas of southeastern Manitoba still have some uncertainty. Find out where and when the most intense weather can be expected and read further to find out details for your community in this storm update. 

Tonight: A strong low pressure system will be situated over Montana tonight moving into North Dakota by morning with a level of 98.9MB. As this happens a likely setup for inital snow and blowing snow is likely from west to east along areas of the border moving north into the interlake regions. This will be a narrow swath that will not be the main event of the storm. As we move into the overnight hours, this storm system is likely to impact majority of the SE part of Saskatchewan during the morning hours. Bottom line the significant winter weather does not start does not look to start until the early morning hours especially in the southwestern parts of Manitoba including the southern Red River valley including southeastern Manitoba . Winds however will be on a stronger side gusting from 50 to 70 kilometers an hour especially towards the early morning hours in the southwest parts of Manitoba where winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings are in place. Tonight overnight low temperatures for majority of the Manitoba appear to be in the upper minus single digits areas of Western and southwestern Manitoba will be in the lower minus teens wind chill values correspondingly however will be colder than the minus ten degrees Celsius range for majority of the region except areas of South Central and southeastern Manitoba.

Tomorrow (above RDPS Model and lightning potential from the HRRR model): It looks like a majority of the significant winter weather is going to occur in southwestern Manitoba as forecast during the early morning to mid afternoon majority of that area will be under moderate to very heavy snowfall with snowfall rates of three to five centimeters per hour also there will be strong northwesterly winds gusting up to 50 to 70 kilometers an hour at times.  Snow in western Manitoba will persist through the day on Sunday into Sunday evening, Of concern on Sunday will be the heavy snowfall race which will drastically reduce visibility highway travel is not recommended for areas from the Manitoba border E to Winnipeg south to the American border north into the Interlakes including Gimli Fisher Branch and areas over Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Highway travel is not recommended if you are heading out please make sure that you leave tonight and get to your destination by the morning hours .details on snowfall totals can be found at the bottom of this paragraph. Areas in the Red River valley during the morning into the afternoon hours however will be in the warm sector. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain mixture is possible during the morning and early afternoon hours. Models are having a hard time agreeing on the timing of the switch over to snowfall in this area earlier models were hinting at a chance at 1 to 5 hours of freezing rain over a majority of southcentral Manitoba newer models have been showing a smaller section of the SE getting impacted by sleet and freezing rain especially near the border. Its crucial to know that the setup for freezing rain and ice pellets with the rain and snow mix will depend on how far north that warmth can move in. HRRR has been consistent with it being over southeastern Manitoba until about 4pm CDT with a switch over to snow, other models show this period of freezing rain being brief before a switch to snow by lunch time. Bottom line there will be a risk across southeastern Manitoba east of the blizzard warnings for a risk of freezing rain, rain and snow mix. There will also be a risk for thunder to occur within the heavier batches of precipitation across the south albeit lower. Depending on how fast the low pressure system moves N will help determine our setup in the southeast, current models are indicating a swath Of five to ten millimeters of freezing rain just south of the border, which . The new model runs have been suggesting that heavier freezing rain will occur just south of the border however if that moves north at further than current models are suggesting areas of the Red River valley including the eastern parts of Manitoba may be getting into some moderate to heavy ice during the afternoon on Sunday. That much ice would be the equivalent enough to freeze power lines and knockout power.

In regards to snowfall totals (see above "Courtesy of Weatherlogics) much Of Western Manitoba appears to be getting the brunt of the system with areas West of Lake Manitoba getting 20 to 30 centimeters of snow that includes Dauphin, riding Mountain National Park, Alonsa, parts of the central interlakes and areas of extreme western Manitoba from Melita to Russell. Areas outside of that including the rest of the Interleakes extreme southwestern Manitoba areas along highway 10 S-N to Swan River including Western Lake Winnipeg to just west of Winnipeg can expect to get 15 to 20 centimeters of snow. Areas in that extreme outer section on the east side of the heavy snow all the way from Winnipeg towards eastern Manitoba down to Minot can expect to get ten to fifteen centimeters of snow. Areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba will only get between two to 10 centimeters of snow so it appears southeastern Manitoba will be getting primarily rain to freezing rain or rain snow mix . Temperatures on the day Sunday are going to be considerably different with areas of southeastern Manitoba in the low minus single digits or slightly above zero degrees Celsius depending on how far north that warmth moves. Temperatures along stream western Manitoba will be in the low minus teens areas to the east of that in the high minus single digits.

(Above:) Image of the incoming low pressure system that will bring strong north west and northerly winds as it impacts our area on sunday night possibly resulting in blizzard warnings. This system will be significant despite it moving into northern Manitoba during the night. 

Sunday Night: It appears that a majority of the snowfall including the low pressure system itself will move into northern Manitoba during the overnight. Strong northwest to westerly winds will envelope a large portion of the province and it may also bring with a blizzard conditions for majority of South Central Southeastern and southwestern Manitoba during the overnight. For those wondering there still may be some . Moderate heavy snow and fall especially in the central parts of the province before the low pressure system departs into northern Manitoba. Regardless blizzard conditions do look possible for all areas South of the Manitoba Lakes this is why environment Canada is suggesting a blizzard warning may be required during the night on Sunday into Monday morning travel is not advised unless you have to. Blizzard conditions may persist into Monday morning particularly for areas of the interlakes as the higher tighter isobars will be present there . As mentioned a majority of Southern Manitoba will be in a much colder air mass on Sunday night with, Temperatures in the low minus teens to mid minus teens and wind chill values in the upper minus teens and lower minus twenties. This is why it is crucial that if you are going to do highway traveling that you make sure to leave within the next 12 to 14 hours otherwise you'll be caught in the brunt of this storm and you may end up being stuck out in temperatures which are considerably dangerous if your car stops running.

The week ahead: Cool temperatures are forecast for the entire first part of the week with temperatures in the minus teens for daytime highs and overnight lows in the low minus 20s temperatures will vary however depending on where you are in the province especially if you're heading tire heading to places with higher snow packs temperatures will be on the colder side there. A moderating trend is likely as we head into the second half of the week.

 Please stay tuned to Manitoba Weather centre for any updates on this winter storm and weather alerts that get posted.

Keep in mind that this is not a professional weather forecast, but my own views from data analysis.