Warm Above Seasonal Temperatures Persist

 Well Folk's it looks like southern Manitoba is getting another preview of early Spring weather, temperatures over the last few days have been running above seasonal, with our daytime high on Monday soaring to near record highs especially with Morden reaching a high of 14C, and Winnipeg seeing high values above 10C. This is the warmest weather that we have experienced since the month of October 2023. The overall atmospheric pattern right now is suggesting we will see a strong surge of pacific air to end this week, however that trend is looking likely to end this weekend. There is also a chance for more rain and snow on Friday. Find out when and where in this week's weather update. 

(Tonight: A strong risk for fog is likely in areas of southwestern Manitoba tonight with lower levels of risk in areas of eastern Manitoba). 

Wednesday Night: Tonight mostly cloudy skies are likely with, periods of clearing at times. The sun has been peaking out off and on this afternoon especially in areas of the red river valley. Tonight there also is a risk for for patches and some near low visibility in areas of southwestern Manitoba, as today's melted snow increases the overall moisture content in the lower levels. Snowpack density is also a lot higher in southwestern Manitoba. There is also a risk for patchy fog in southeastern Manitoba but a lot lower risk than last night. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop a degree or 2 below freezing in areas of southwestern Manitoba, the red river valley, interlakes and the parklands. There is a possibilty of snow free areas in southeastern Manitoba only staying a degree or 2 above freezing. 

Thursday: We are likely to be under the influence of high pressure on thursday, with a slight northerly flow present. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday than on the day Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies are also forecast which will may prevent some melting from happening. Even though there will be periods of sun. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower single digits (2 to 4C) in all areas of southern Manitoba and some sections of extreme southwestern Manitoba may see highs in the low minus single digits (0 to -2C). 

Thursday Night: A low pressure system will be approaching the area from the north, us being in the warm sector may allow us to briefly switch over to a westerly flow ahead of the main system. This will help keep temperatures mild on Thursday night. Overnight low temperatures will stay in the (-1C to -4C) range every where thursday night. There will be increasing clouds overnight with mostly cloudy skies by morning. 

Friday: (Above: Strong winds likely on Friday with a map of the expected precipitation in our region. Green is rain, blue is snow). This is when the weather is expected to get interesting a low pressure system is expected to move into our region with strong winds out of the west and southwest becoming more likely. Gusts of 50 to 80km/h can be expected from the northern parklands into the interlakes moving into southeastern Manitoba by the early evening. During the day most impacts will be felt along an area from the manitoba parklands, into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba mainly during the afternoon. There will be a band of rain moving into southern sections of manitoba, the edge of the rain band looks likely to be cut off at the Portage La Prairie, Elie areas with a dry frontal passage likely in western Manitoba. The rain band looks likely to only impact areas of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. This system will not be bringing any snow except for areas of Nopiming provincial park areas or the east side of Lake Winnipeg where temperatures look to support that. Temperatures appear to be too warm for any snow elsewhere. Highs across the region are expected to soar into the mid single digits in areas of the south, except areas of the northern red river valley highs will likely reach the low single digits (1 to 3C). 

Friday Night: Looks as though that the frontal system is going to be moving into northern Ontario on Friday night, with a slight northerly flow behind the system. The good news is that this system will be moisture starved so only residual flurries scattered in nature are likely, air will be cold enough to bring some lake effect streamers coming off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg. Overnight lows in the lower minus single digits are likely for areas north of highway 1 and areas south of highway and the lakes will remain above zero overnight.

The Weekend: Calm weather continues with temperatures running a degree or 2 below zero on the weekend for daytime highs with lows in the high minus single digits and low minus teens. Calm weather continues next week.