Major Winter Storm Coming to Southern Manitoba,

 Southern Manitoba get ready we are about to experience a major winter storm, one that we have not seen in over a year. Unlike the last one we had, this one will be significant. Before getting into the details, I want you all to know that the system is still developing in Montana so the outcome may be different than this forecast describes. So far areas with the worst of weather forecast is southwestern Manitoba, and the interlakes. Areas of southeastern Manitoba still have some uncertainty. Find out where and when the most intense weather can be expected and read further to find out details for your community in this storm update. 

Tonight: A strong low pressure system will be situated over Montana tonight moving into North Dakota by morning with a level of 98.9MB. As this happens a likely setup for inital snow and blowing snow is likely from west to east along areas of the border moving north into the interlake regions. This will be a narrow swath that will not be the main event of the storm. As we move into the overnight hours, this storm system is likely to impact majority of the SE part of Saskatchewan during the morning hours. Bottom line the significant winter weather does not start does not look to start until the early morning hours especially in the southwestern parts of Manitoba including the southern Red River valley including southeastern Manitoba . Winds however will be on a stronger side gusting from 50 to 70 kilometers an hour especially towards the early morning hours in the southwest parts of Manitoba where winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings are in place. Tonight overnight low temperatures for majority of the Manitoba appear to be in the upper minus single digits areas of Western and southwestern Manitoba will be in the lower minus teens wind chill values correspondingly however will be colder than the minus ten degrees Celsius range for majority of the region except areas of South Central and southeastern Manitoba.

Tomorrow (above RDPS Model and lightning potential from the HRRR model): It looks like a majority of the significant winter weather is going to occur in southwestern Manitoba as forecast during the early morning to mid afternoon majority of that area will be under moderate to very heavy snowfall with snowfall rates of three to five centimeters per hour also there will be strong northwesterly winds gusting up to 50 to 70 kilometers an hour at times.  Snow in western Manitoba will persist through the day on Sunday into Sunday evening, Of concern on Sunday will be the heavy snowfall race which will drastically reduce visibility highway travel is not recommended for areas from the Manitoba border E to Winnipeg south to the American border north into the Interlakes including Gimli Fisher Branch and areas over Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Highway travel is not recommended if you are heading out please make sure that you leave tonight and get to your destination by the morning hours .details on snowfall totals can be found at the bottom of this paragraph. Areas in the Red River valley during the morning into the afternoon hours however will be in the warm sector. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain mixture is possible during the morning and early afternoon hours. Models are having a hard time agreeing on the timing of the switch over to snowfall in this area earlier models were hinting at a chance at 1 to 5 hours of freezing rain over a majority of southcentral Manitoba newer models have been showing a smaller section of the SE getting impacted by sleet and freezing rain especially near the border. Its crucial to know that the setup for freezing rain and ice pellets with the rain and snow mix will depend on how far north that warmth can move in. HRRR has been consistent with it being over southeastern Manitoba until about 4pm CDT with a switch over to snow, other models show this period of freezing rain being brief before a switch to snow by lunch time. Bottom line there will be a risk across southeastern Manitoba east of the blizzard warnings for a risk of freezing rain, rain and snow mix. There will also be a risk for thunder to occur within the heavier batches of precipitation across the south albeit lower. Depending on how fast the low pressure system moves N will help determine our setup in the southeast, current models are indicating a swath Of five to ten millimeters of freezing rain just south of the border, which . The new model runs have been suggesting that heavier freezing rain will occur just south of the border however if that moves north at further than current models are suggesting areas of the Red River valley including the eastern parts of Manitoba may be getting into some moderate to heavy ice during the afternoon on Sunday. That much ice would be the equivalent enough to freeze power lines and knockout power.

In regards to snowfall totals (see above "Courtesy of Weatherlogics) much Of Western Manitoba appears to be getting the brunt of the system with areas West of Lake Manitoba getting 20 to 30 centimeters of snow that includes Dauphin, riding Mountain National Park, Alonsa, parts of the central interlakes and areas of extreme western Manitoba from Melita to Russell. Areas outside of that including the rest of the Interleakes extreme southwestern Manitoba areas along highway 10 S-N to Swan River including Western Lake Winnipeg to just west of Winnipeg can expect to get 15 to 20 centimeters of snow. Areas in that extreme outer section on the east side of the heavy snow all the way from Winnipeg towards eastern Manitoba down to Minot can expect to get ten to fifteen centimeters of snow. Areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba will only get between two to 10 centimeters of snow so it appears southeastern Manitoba will be getting primarily rain to freezing rain or rain snow mix . Temperatures on the day Sunday are going to be considerably different with areas of southeastern Manitoba in the low minus single digits or slightly above zero degrees Celsius depending on how far north that warmth moves. Temperatures along stream western Manitoba will be in the low minus teens areas to the east of that in the high minus single digits.

(Above:) Image of the incoming low pressure system that will bring strong north west and northerly winds as it impacts our area on sunday night possibly resulting in blizzard warnings. This system will be significant despite it moving into northern Manitoba during the night. 

Sunday Night: It appears that a majority of the snowfall including the low pressure system itself will move into northern Manitoba during the overnight. Strong northwest to westerly winds will envelope a large portion of the province and it may also bring with a blizzard conditions for majority of South Central Southeastern and southwestern Manitoba during the overnight. For those wondering there still may be some . Moderate heavy snow and fall especially in the central parts of the province before the low pressure system departs into northern Manitoba. Regardless blizzard conditions do look possible for all areas South of the Manitoba Lakes this is why environment Canada is suggesting a blizzard warning may be required during the night on Sunday into Monday morning travel is not advised unless you have to. Blizzard conditions may persist into Monday morning particularly for areas of the interlakes as the higher tighter isobars will be present there . As mentioned a majority of Southern Manitoba will be in a much colder air mass on Sunday night with, Temperatures in the low minus teens to mid minus teens and wind chill values in the upper minus teens and lower minus twenties. This is why it is crucial that if you are going to do highway traveling that you make sure to leave within the next 12 to 14 hours otherwise you'll be caught in the brunt of this storm and you may end up being stuck out in temperatures which are considerably dangerous if your car stops running.

The week ahead: Cool temperatures are forecast for the entire first part of the week with temperatures in the minus teens for daytime highs and overnight lows in the low minus 20s temperatures will vary however depending on where you are in the province especially if you're heading tire heading to places with higher snow packs temperatures will be on the colder side there. A moderating trend is likely as we head into the second half of the week.

 Please stay tuned to Manitoba Weather centre for any updates on this winter storm and weather alerts that get posted.

Keep in mind that this is not a professional weather forecast, but my own views from data analysis.