Thunderstorm threat returns more unsettled weather ahead for the weekend.

Hey everyone we're gonna do a quick weather update for the weekend normally I would go into in depth information about our overall weather setup. This weekend looks to be one of those more unsettled setups got multiple days of rounds of thunderstorms that could impact a majority of southern Manitoba. Read on more below.

During the afternoon on Saturday a area of low pressure will sit over central Manitoba just north of Winnipeg, this area of low pressure looks to create an unstable air mass during the afternoon there will be a possibility or threat of strong thunderstorms some of which may be severe however we're not looking at a large severe threat comparative to other events that we've had. If we do get severe storms they will be marginal with hail only about 1 to two millimeters thickness and rainfall of 30 to forty millimeters, Environment Canada is suggesting that majority of these storms will remain subsevere however some may briefly approach or surpass severe limits. Temperatures on the day Saturday will be warm in the southeast with the majority of the SE seeing highs in the mid to high 20s there is a possibility that some localities may be a bit cooler especially in the southwest part of the province where showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. If storms can hold off till later in the afternoon temperatures may reach the low to mid twenties in the southwest.

Above two images simulated radar imagery for Saturday afternoon with thunderstorms developing across a broad section of our region, there will be an isolated risk for a severe storm or two with large hail and heavy rain. Significant severe weather is not forecast.

On the overnight into Sunday expects partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with the possibility of more clearing towards morning hours. Overnight temperatures on Saturday night will likely drop into the mid teens with areas Across the region dropping between 11 and 15 degrees Celsius. Cooler In the southwest.

Sunday will be a much calmer weather day compared to earlier this Weekend, I'm looking at high temperatures on a day Sunday rising into the mid 20s areas around the Manitoba Lakes however maybe a little bit cooler seeing temperatures in the upper teens. Unsettled weather will not be expected on the day of Sunday however odd pop up shower may occur. Heading into Sunday nights this is when there could be a threat for severe weather over southern Manitoba a complex of thunderstorms may likely develop in Saskatchewan and then drift E SE over the parklands into the Lake Manitoba region and then the Red River valley and Interlake regions overnight. We will wait on model runs to come out to verify this. The NAM model is suggesting this as well as the NAMNEST model. These thunderstorms may present a severe threat we will know more by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain seasonal for a majority of the night with temperatures dropping into the mid teens.

The week ahead looks potentially active especially the day on Monday, A renewed threat for severe thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon and evening on Monday. A frontal system will move through southern Manitoba during the afternoon hours there is a possibility for increased levels of instability as humidity and heat move in from the United States this may be the hottest day of the week with temperatures rising into the upper 20s and humidity values in the upper 30s and possibly near 40C.

Severe Weather Threat Returns to Southern Manitoba.

 Hello everyone. An active period of weather is likely to impact southern sections of Manitoba this weekend. I am actually quite surprised at the latest data and it seems like conditions will be similar to the weather we had earlier this week. Overall a humid, hot and potentially unstable pattern is on the way to southern Manitoba this weekend as a batch of tropical air will be moving up from the united states gulf of Mexico. Find out how bad the weather will get and where and when in this weekends latest blog.

(Above: First summer batch of humidity arrives for southern Manitoba with dewpoint values between 15 and 20C - Muggy).

Tonight much of Southern Manitoba will be under threat for another round of thunderstorms especially areas from the Saskatchewan border as far east as Winnipeg could see scattered showers and thunderstorms with small hill mainly. During the later overnight hours most of these should weaken as sunrise nears. Severe weather is not anticipated for this. 

The attention then turns to Saturday when a southwesterly flow will be present with many low pressure systems the last couple of weeks moving east along a zonal flow however given the fact that there will be much high level moisture available tapping from the Gulf of Mexico severe weather is possible later in the day. Temperatures during the afternoon according to the high resolution models including the Canadian High Resolution Model will rise into the mid to upper 20 degrees Celsius range across the south. Current model guidance shows that dew point temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens as a result we are expecting general thunderstorm energy to rise. I don't really get into much atmospheric dynamics however there is broad troughing over the Western United States that is resulting in multiple areas of low pressure to develop over the Canadian Prairie provinces. As a result of this low pressure system there will be an increased threat for severe thunderstorms over southwestern Manitoba into the Red River Valley. Towards the afternoon there is a smaller risk in eastern Manitoba as some high resolution models are hinting at scattered severe thunderstorms popping up during the afternoon in the southern Red River Valley which may impact Winnipeg in the afternoon however this confidence is a lot lower given that the threats will be highest in the western part of Manitoba during the afternoon and evening. So let's get into the details.

(Above: Possible severe storms in the red river valley during the afternoon hours. Based on the RDPS model).

 Scenario #1 Starting in the afternoon a warm front will be sitting over the Canadian border moving into southern Manitoba by the afternoon bringing strong dew points and instability north of the border which will also move into areas of southwestern Manitoba. There is conditional instability present in the Red River valley which may contribute to an area of severe thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and early evening which may impact the Winnipeg and eastern portions of Manitoba, this will only be possible if there is no early morning convection or showers. If storms form later in the day and develop in the southwest as well with these storms they could be some powerful thunderstorms especially in the Red River Valley regions. There is a possibility that some of these may be super cells however there is not a lot of model information on the HRDPS i'm just mentioning that there is a possibility that the Red River valley could also see storms in the late afternoon and early evening. If there is morning showers or storms this risk for this potential thunderstorm threat would be lower. 

(Above: Radar Images on the severe weather forecast to impact southern Manitoba during the evening in the SW.):

The higher levels of concerns for severe thunderstorms will be present in western Manitoba I spoke with Justin and he said that there will be a risk for supercell development in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba with MUCAPE values between 2000 and 4000 joules per kilogram with plenty of shear. But we are then looking at is the development of possible super cell thunderstorms with the ability to produce hail up to the size of golf balls or baseballs given the fact that we have that experienced that earlier this week, there is also a risk that an area from Melita to Brandon N to Neepawa W to Portage la Prairie will be at risk for tornadoes to develop along with flooding rains, most areas will get between 10 to 70mm+ of rain depending on thunderstorm activity). Based on what Justin had mentioned to me there is a possibility of potentially dangerous situation tornadoes in the southwest part of Manitoba, EHI values which basically tell the severity of storms ahead of time sometimes we can tell how bad it might be. The values are right now forecast to be between one and 4 which show significant severe risk. If conditions allow these thunderstorms will merge into a thunderstorm complex which will then travel east across the southwest part of the province into the Red River valley by overnight which may weaken into rain and possible thunderstorms. Some of the other high res models are also showing that thunderstorm complex dying out with more thunderstorms developing over Northern Lake Winnipeg which is an odd location for thunderstorms given that instability will not be significant in that area will have to monitor to see if there's any changes in future runs.

Thunderstorms are expected to persist during the late evening into the overnight hours there is a possibility they may completely weaken as they reach the Red River valley as instability values drop significantly. However if they do sustain themselves there is a possibility for wind gusts up to 90 kilometers an hour or more with small to moderate hail and frequent lightning. ****(Unrelated note: For those of you who want to see thunderstorms in the Red River valley we still have the entire summer to go and all it takes is for one low pressure system to encounter heat humidity and boom we get storms that could be quite powerful. And the Red River valley is also known for some pretty powerful thunderstorms over the last 50 years or so, I'm not gonna go in a tangent but St Claude had a major tornado in 1984, there was a major wedge tornado by Brunkild in 2000 and you also have Elie in 2007, Gull Lake in 2006 on August 5th and you also have that tornado which struck South Winnipeg on July 6 of 1987. So storm season is not over yet it's just beginning unfortunately for those of you don't like thunderstorms you have to wait until September comes.)***   Temperatures are forecast to drop only into the upper teens overnight. 

During the morning hours on Sunday there may be some remaining instability of CAPE as the front moves east in areas of the Red River Valley East, with a possibility of new thunderstorms developing over the central Red River valley and areas east into the white shell into the morning hours these storms will not be significantly severe. Looking at the possibility at some heavy downpours and hail. However if storms from the overnight are persistent it may not allow for these thunderstorms to develop during the morning and general clearing would be expected. Sunday will be one of those calmer weather days with temperatures behind the cold front sitting in the lower 20s to mid 20s, with areas to the W in the province there will be temperatures in the upper teens for daytime highs.

The week ahead: Unsettled weather will persist On Monday and Tuesday as a southwesterly flow sits over our region with temperatures slightly below average there will be a couple chances for showers and thunderstorms especially on Monday and Tuesday. Your weather is not likely however there is a possibility for some isolated severe cells depending on how much instability builds in. Be happy however I just heard in Montana that there is a possibility of a winter storm headed their way this week so could always be worse in Manitoba. Calmer weather is likely throughout the rest of the week

Seasonal weather continues, heat and humidity arrive briefly. Severe weather threat possibly arriving midweek.

Good evening everyone I have a weather blog update for the weather for the beginning part of the week there's some interesting weather forecast with the potential for some severe weather on the day Wednesday afternoon will get into that shortly. Looks like a broad area of low pressure will be swinging through the central and eastern Prairie provinces with the possibility of bringing with it some unsettled weather and temperatures around normal. 

Above photo of severe thunderstorm risk on Wednesday (Top Photo) followed by the NAM weather model on the (bottom photo) showing the SKEW T Graph threat of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday just South of Winnipeg this may also change depending on the updated model runs over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tonight an area of low pressure will be moving through southern sections of Manitoba with the possibility of mainly cloudy skies and mostly rain heading into the overnight. General rainfall amounts expected to be between, 10 to fifteen millimeters of rain the most rainfall is likely to fall in southwestern parts of Manitoba up into the Manitoba Scarpent and the east part of western Manitoba near Riding Mountain National Park. By morning a majority of the rain should be out of the province there should be a possibility of showers in the Interlake region as the area of low pressure begins To move SE. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to low teens areas of the Interlakes and expect to be seeing temperatures closer to the 10 degrees Celsius marked with the cooler lake waters in those areas.

The weather on Tuesday afternoon should clear out with sunny skies forecast temperatures getting into the upper teens and lower 20s especially if you're in areas closer to the American border. There will be a chance for some scattered showers and weak thunderstorms during the afternoon with very little instability in place expect them to be non severe in nature. A more robust chance of thunder storms are possible on the day on Wednesday. Tuesday night looks like a warm front will approach our region ahead of it there will be a chance for some weak showers or scattered showers during the morning hours overnight low temperatures will be in the mid teens with areas of the Inter Lakes again seeing temperatures in the lower teens.

On Wednesday this is when the weather gets concerning a area of low pressure will be off to our north another one be moving through southeastern Manitoba into northwestern Ontario. Temperatures Will be rising into the mid it to high 20s especially in areas of the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, along with it high levels of instability. We are generally looking at convective available potential energy values between one thousand five hundred and two thousand five hundred along with Bulk shear between 25 and 45 knots. It looks like the threat for severe thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening in south central and eastern Manitoba there is also a possibility that this risk area could shift a bit further to the West depending on how far east the frontal system decides to move on the day Wednesday. There is an indication during the afternoon that thunderstorms will develop in southwestern Manitoba moving east into the more unstable air mass there will be a possibility of tornadoes happening during the afternoon and evening hours. The risk will be low for tornadoes however. I've looked over several models and the super cell composite as well as significant tornado parameter are on the lower end which shows that there is a slight risk for tornadoes. Areas included are from Brandon to Winnipeg, east to the whiteshell then south to the american border. Also we're not looking at anything that would be considered a more substantial level which you would get in July or August. Bottom line if storms can hold off till a little bit later in the day they may be a little bit more significant however they look like majority of the storms will fire shortly after lunchtime or in the early to mid afternoon hours with very little capping in place these storms may not reach the significant levels that we get in the United States. Regardless look for a risk for a severe thunderstorms on the day Wednesday with large hail damaging winds and torrential rain. Will also be quite humid our humidx values will likely reach the mid 30s during the afternoon on Wednesday. Justin or I will have a updates on this weather threat on the morning hours or late morning early afternoon on Wednesday.

Calmer weather is likely for the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper teens lower 20s possibilities of mid 20s as well, there will be a chance for some showers on Thursday followed by calmer conditions on Friday. However more unsettled weather is likely for the weekend as more areas of low pressure move into southern Manitoba with more instability coming in from the United States, it looks like this is a start to what could be our storm season as June is a more active month on average.