Unsettled weather returns to Manitoba, severe weather risk returns

 Southern sections of Manitoba will be seeing a return to wetter than average conditions with the possibility of severe thunderstorms thanks to remnants of a tropical system hurricane marie. With all said and done mild temperatures look likely as we enter the final days of summer. Find out where the most active weather could occur in this weekends blog as we cover details of the long weekend. 

    Possibly severe storms are likely to return to southern Manitoba during the evening hours in Manitoba. HRRR model is a bit later in the day compared to other weather models, see below for more data. This is a start to what could be an unsettled rest of the weekend.

Saturday Night: A calm Night is in store for southern Manitoba with temperatures dropping into the upper teens with mainly clear skies and calm winds. There shouldn't be anything in the way of unsettled weather in southern Manitoba during the overnight time frame.

Risk of a severe line of thunderstorms moving through southern Manitoba during the early afternoon hours a bit earlier than the HRRR as suggested on the HRW ARW. 

Sunday: Temperatures during the afternoon will be rising into the mid 20s for southwestern manitoba Areas of eastern Manitoba including the Red River Valley will be seeing temperatures in the mid to high 20s, with Humidex values rising into the low 30s to mid 30s. during the early afternoon to evening a cold front will be moving through southern sections of manitoba Ahead of it a fairly unstable airmass will be situated over the region with general MUCAPE levels rising into the 1000 to 3000 joules per kilogram range, with bulk Sheer Values from 30 to 60 knots over southern sections of Manitoba during the afternoon and evening as well as Storm Relative helicity numbers between 100 to 400. What this all means is that there will be a chance for thunderstorm development in southern sections of Manitoba during the early afternoon into the evening hours from the western border of Saskatchewan and manitoba Into the Inter Lakes and red River Valley, as these thunderstorms develop there is a possibility that they will become severe with strong winds in excess of 100 kilometers an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls, flooding rains, and frequent lightning are all possible with these thunderstorms.There is also an initial risk of tornadoes in western Manitoba as these storms happen. It again is a possibility that this does not pan out as some other weather models are suggesting that these thunderstorms will not happen, but there's other weather models which are showing some significant thunderstorm activity over the region during the afternoon it's better to be safe than sorry with the information. Also storms will have the capability of flooding rains, the NAM and HRRR both show the red river valley seeing anywhere from 75-100+mm of rain with storms. 

Sunday night, It appears that this unsettled weather will persist in eastern sections of Manitoba before storms clear if they do happen. a pause in unsettled weather looks possible overnight into Monday given the approaching low pressure system in North Dakota will not be impacting our region much. overnight low temperatures for majority of southern sections of Manitoba will be in the upper teens and low 20s.

Monday a low pressure system will be sitting over sections of North Dakota and ahead of it a warm front will be moving through southern sections of manitoba, ahead of it a large area of precipitation including thunderstorm activity will be moving through southern sections through the afternoon and early evening hours. (Photo to the left of the HRW FV3 model suggesting strong storms in southern Manitoba during the afternoon on Monday) Temperatures during the afternoon will be in the upper teens to low to mid 20s depending on if skies can clear with the forecasted cloud that is expected. A general area of instability of 2,000 J/Kg CAPE will be drifting into the Red River Valley come the evening hours a second round of thunderstorm activity may develop in the Red River Valley region after the initial batch of rain and thunderstorms move through as the warm front lifts north. I'm not anticipating a severe weather outbreak as the day it was on Sunday, I am expecting a risk of marginally severe thunderstorms with some large hail and damaging winds a possibility but a much lower threat overall compared to the day on Sunday. a total of 20 to 40mm of rain as possible during the afternoon and evening in the Red River Valley and southwestern manitoba I have attached a photo of rainfall totals above this post with the HRRR and Nam model.

The rest of the week: Much calmer weather conditions are likely for the second half of the week into the weekend , it doesn't look like anymore storm systems will be impacting us for the foreseeable future after this weekend. Daytime high temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s for the first half of the week and then towards the end of the week temperatures returning into the upper 20s. it looks like temperatures in the low to mid teens are likely during the overnight time frame.

Severe thunderstorm threat returns to southern Manitoba, cooler and calmer weather to follow.

Hi everyone my posting has kind of been lacking this summer given my busyness and I recently moved into my own place with lots of things to keep busy with and the weather has been quiet so I haven't posted much.it fairly quiet summer in regards to thunderstorm potential over the Canadian Prairies provinces however that does look to change this week on Monday another low pressure system will be moving across the Prairie provinces into southern Manitoba bringing another round of potential severe thunderstorms. We last had our significant severe weather event on July 29th I unfortunately did not get a post out about this event and then earlier in July we had a tornado which touched down inside city limits. Find out more about Monday's severe weather potential in todays weather blog

Overnight it looks like southern Manitoba could have the potential for some thunderstorm activity Drifting in from southeastern Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba some of these thunderstorms could be severe with hail up to the size of Toonies or golf balls. These storms will weaken as the morning approaches. With overnight low temperatures getting into the upper teens in the Southwest and mid teens in the Southeast.

HRW WRF ARW Model hinting at severe storms in south central Manitoba during Monday Evening.

RRFS Model hinting at severe storms developing in the parklands and then developing further south, this is one possible outcome. 

The NAM 3Km is showing storms forming west of Winnipeg and then congealing into a line of storms come the evening hours. 

Monday should be an interesting day weather wise a cold front will be moving into southern sections Manitoba during the afternoon hours and evening, ahead of it temperatures will be rising into the upper 20s and potential low 30s for some regions. There is a possibility that some areas will see temperatures and humidex values range into the upper 30s. Combine this together there will be upwards of 2000 to 3000 joules per kilogram of CAPE, bulk sheer of 30 to 40 knots, Dew point temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s, Ehi values of 2 to 3, . What this will equate to is a threat for severe thunderstorms in South central Manitoba including Winnipeg Steinbeck, Gimli Stonewall, Portage la Prairie, Winkler, West central Manitoba including the parklands, the Interlakes and eastern Manitoba. Based off of model data it could be that storms fire in western Manitoba and then gradually fill in further south based off of the RRFS model. There is also the NAM 3km model which is suggesting storms develop West of Winnipeg and impact the Red River Valley into eastern Manitoba, one of the high resolution CAM models is suggesting storms will develop in the Red River Valley.. And then there is the regular weather models which are suggesting storms only will be impacting northwestern Ontario That is an outlier at this point given the position of the front and the Area of instability present ahead of the front suggests that Manitoba will be mainly under the gun. There is an odd chance though that Manitoba misses out completely on storms and northwestern Ontario gets them I think this is highly unlikely at this moment given the GFS, the ECMW and the high resolution models are suggesting storms in southern Manitoba. There is a risk for hail up to the size of golf balls, Wind gusts up to with 90 or 100km an hour, and there is an isolated tornado threat as well with rainfall rates of 50 to 75mm an hour. Storms originally maybe multi cell or individual supercell thunderstorms which will congeal into a line moving east in the evening hours into northwestern Ontario after sunset.

Storms should clear by the evening hours with temperatures cooling down behind the front. Temperatures on Monday night will drop into the upper teens with a few areas hovering around 20 degrees Celsius. Tuesday will bring a renewed threat for showers and scattered thunderstorms they will be non severe however as the low pressure system sits over S central Manitoba with only temperatures rising into the upper teens and low 20s. the rest of the week should be much calmer with temperatures in the Low to mid 20s Overnight lows should be in the low teens to mid teens with some areas during the week dropping below 10 degrees Celsius.

Active weekend on the way to Manitoba

Well another weekend of active weather is set to impact southern Manitoba this weekend, thanks to a large trough setting up over western Canada and a ridge developing over the eastern united states. Inbetween that a strong jetstream is set to establish itself over the prairies bringing with it areas of low pressure and instability and rounds of severe weather. Details about this is on the way in today's weather blog. 

Saturday Night: Tonight a large swath of showers and thunderstorms will develop in Montana, NW North Dakota and SE Saskatchewan with MUCAPE values of 2,000-3,000K/Kg and Storm relative helicity of 200-300 it should support thunderstorms with the potential for severe thunderstorms. The tornado threat appears to be in SE Saskatchewan, not in Manitoba. As a result of the instability a line of thunderstorms looks to develop and move east northeast through the evening and overnight hours, making it's way into SW Manitoba shortly after midnight. As the storms move through the potential is there for wind gusts up to 100-110km/h, and hail up to the size of golf balls. Storms may weaken as they move east,northeast throughout the night. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper teens.

Sunday (Above): Another day of interesting weather is forecast for our region, a warm front will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba and a cold front sitting over eastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. As a result of this setup a large area of dewpoint temperatures in the mid to high 20's is forecast allowing CAPE levels to rise into the 1000 to 2000 range (Thunderstorm energy), with EHI levels of 2-3. As a result expect thunderstorms to possibly develop in SW MB and the western parklands, there also is a chance for some thunderstorms to form in the red river valley, eastern Manitoba but lower. Some of the storms that form may be severe with hail up to the size of golf balls or larger, wind gusts up to 110km/h, 75-100mm of rain and a tornado threat. This threat is conditional on clearing happening, if it doesn't clear storms may not likely have the neccessary environment to develop. Expect thunderstorms to clear by late evening and lift northeast into central parts of Manitoba. Temperatures will drop only in the upper teens for a majority of the region. 

Monday (Above): The attention turns to southeastern Manitoba as the center of the low pressure system sits over North Dakota and lifts north into southern Manitoba by evening. Temperatures will reach the mid to high 20's in southeast Manitoba, where the west will sit in the high teens and low 20's. Dewpoints in the low 20's are possible in eastern Manitoba. What this will do is allow for moisture to advect north into southeastern Manitoba with upwards of 2,000 to 3,500 J/Kg, SRH values of 400 to 800 are possible in southcentral and southeastern Manitoba, EHI values of 6 to 10 are possible. What this all means is that storms will likely develop in North Dakota during the afternoon and will move north into south central and southeastern Manitoba, there will be a risk for supercells with the possibility of hail up to the size of baseballs, heavy rain in excess of 75-100mm, tornado or 2 is possible with the storms that develop. They may move northeast into eastern Manitoba come later in the evening. We at the weather centre of Manitoba will update you as the day gets closer. Both the NAM and the RRFS have convection moving through the red river valley on Monday. 

Storm totals will vary from 50 80mm of rain in the western portions of Manitoba and the parklands in Swan River, Areas of the Red River valley From Winnipeg West to Portage La Prairie may see 50 to 75mm of rain elsewhere a general 20 to 45mm of rain is expected.

A brief cooldown is possible during the first half of the week with temperatures in the low 20's before another heatwave kicks in during the second half of the week with highs in the upper 20's and low 30's. Environment Canada has already hinted at signs of a heat wave in there latest forecast discussion. 

Severe Thunderstorm Threat Likely in Manitoba today

 Hi everyone, I have an update on the severe weather threat, which is likely to impact southern Manitoba this afternoon evening and overnight time frame. A strong low pressure system is going to be impacting in southern sections of the province bringing with it increase levels of moisture, humidity, and instability. The end result of this will turn out not to be the best for some. Find out the details of where, and when the worst of the weather will occur

.

Today: I’ll try and keep things simple for today’s outlook. Today’s Southern Manitoba is under the gun for significant thunderstorms as a result of temperatures reaching the low 30s and high 30s with the heat index. A warm front will be moving into southern Manitoba, bringing in instability values quite significant for this time of year . Most unstable CAPE values will rise into the 3000 J per kilogram range to 4000 J per kilogram range in some areas of the SW parts of Manitoba, by this evening, energy helicity values will rise into the 5 to 12 levels. With all of this combined and dewpoint temperatures reaching the 20s this afternoon. Overall, with all the ingredients in place, we have ample thunderstorm, energy, shear, twisting in the atmosphere for super cells, humidity, and a cold front and warm front as the trigger we will be looking at a significant risk for thunderstorms, which will be severe This afternoon, a risk of discreet super cell thunderstorms with the capacity to bring in hail up to baseball size, rainfall rates up to 30-50mm or more , and tornadoes. This risk is possible in southeastern Manitoba and the red River Valley and southwestern Manitoba along a warm front as it lifts north. As the evening progresses, a dry line will advance east through Northwestern, North Dakota and southwestern Manitoba ahead of this a line of super south thunderstorms will likely develop forming into a squall line which will impact a majority of southern sections of Manitoba during the evening and overnight hours. An extreme risk for severe weather is possible in In areas from Brandon East to Winnipeg with the eastern half of Winnipeg to the Ontario border in a high risk for severe weather. With this squall line expect wind gust up to 130 km an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls are larger, and heavy rain rates of 50 to 75 mm/h. It is possible that this event may classify as a Derecho. 

Tomorrow, much of the same as in the forecast for southern sections of Manitoba and eastern portions of the province, with a lower risk of severe thunderstorms and a non-organized threat for scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms. Less instability will be in play for the day on Wednesday. 

Much cooler conditions are forecast for the second half of the week with temperatures reaching the teens for daytime highs and low 20s. Overnight lows in the upper single digits or low teens.

Severe Weather Returns to southern Manitoba, June starts off with a boom

Southern Manitoba is in line for a round of severe weather and this is the first of the summer season, an area of low pressure is expected to impact southern Manitoba today, all well temperatures are expected to rise into the 20s. This will signal a start of a potential unsettled weather pattern Find out more in this week's blog.

Today:

Southern Manitoba will be under hot humid air mass this afternoon and evening ahead of a frontal system, temperatures today will rise into the low twenties in southwestern Manitoba with areas of south central and south eastern Manitoba rising into the high twenties, with humidex values in the mid to high 30's. Of note today will be the rising instability numbers in southern Manitoba with CAPE values in the 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg range (thunderstorm energy), supercell composite values of 2-10 in southwestern Manitoba, and EHI of 2-8, and bulk shear of 40-80 knots and finally dewpoints of 15-20C will be in place allowing for sufficient moisture for thunderstorm development. Based on this data, thunderstorms will be developing in southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon hours with supercells the primary risk from an area by Melita and extreme southwestern Manitoba into the portage la prairie region. We cannot narrow down exactly where they will form however when they do impact an area they will bring a risk for 100-130km/h winds, ping pong to golf ball size hail, 30-50mm of rain and a risk of a tornado or 2.  Convection will then congeal into a line of severe storms in the western half of Manitoba as they organize, gradually moving east northeast into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba where they will weaken the further east they go with areas of the red river valley seeing a chance at 90-110km/h winds, nickel to ping pong ball size hail and 30-50mm of rain. Storms may persist into the overnight in the eastern half of Manitoba where they will be non severe. 

I have attached simulated radar images below of the storms between 5pm-10pm.

Tonight: Storms will clear and there will be a chance at remaining showers and storms may move up into the red river valley but that will, be a low chance. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low teens in the western half of Manitoba and mid teens in south central and southeastern Manitoba. 

Wednesday: Sunny skies are likely during the first half of the day but a returning chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the day, as a frontal system moves through this threat will be in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba as the main instability axis sits over the region. Temperatures will rise into the low 20's in southwestern Manitoba and mid 20's in the southeast part of the region. Clear skies are likely in the overnight timeframe, with overnight low temperatures in the upper single digits in the parklands and the mid teens in south central Manitoba.

Second half of the week: much cooler temperatures are forecast for the second half of the week with temperatures reaching the upper teens to low 20s and overnight low temperatures in the low teens and upper single digits.Calmer weather conditions as a result of high pressure. It appears that we may be in line again for another round of heat as we get towards the weekend with another round of potential thunderstorms for our region on Sunday.

Heat Wave Persists Over Manitoba, small chances at showers and thunderstorms

It looks like southern Manitoba is locked in the middle of a heatwave and this is just the start of the stretch of hot weather, an omega block of high pressure has set up over the prairie provinces resulting in temperatures at times 15-20 degrees above normal, heat warnings are in place currently for much of Manitoba at the moment. There also is some instability forecast in southern Manitoba this weekend. Find out where the hottest of the weather is forecast. 

Above: Photo of the current omega block and jet stream making its way all the way up into northern Canada while sinking south over eastern Canada and western Canada. The heat is a result of this pattern we are currently stuck in.

Friday: Temperatures in the mid 30s across a large portion of southern manitoba. 

Humidity may be a little bit higher with values reaching the upper 30s But I don't see significant humidex values as a factor. by evening temperatures in southwestern Manitoba will be in the upper 20s. there is a small risk for pop up showers and thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon and evening hours A small chance you might see a rumble of Thunder. This was the thunderstorm chances that was hinted at in the blog post title.

Friday night: Temperatures in the overnight time frame will actually not drop that much, our overnight low temperatures will be close to our normal daytime high temperatures for this time of year with majority of the regions seeing overnight lows in the upper teens and low 20s it'll be warmer the further east you go. The warmest of the overnight low temperatures look to be in eastern Manitoba where some areas may only drop to 22°C.

Above: A snapshot of some of the hottest temperatures forecast over southern Manitoba on the day Saturday with the NAM model, stay cool!!

Saturday: Saturday afternoon majority of the region will be seeing temperatures in the low to mid 30s areas of western Manitoba in the parklands may see temperatures in the upper 20s or low 30s. Humidex values during the afternoon will not be that significant with some regions may be seeing upper 30s compared to our normal average summer humidex in the 40s. Areas of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg may see temperatures in the mid 30s.

Saturday Night: Cooler Overnight lows are forecast for Saturday night with majority of the region seeing temperatures in the upper teens If you're over by the Manitoba lakes more than likely temperatures will drop with the cooler influence of the frozen lakes into the mid teens.

Sunday: Will be the last few days of the major heat with high temperature values in the upper 20's in western Manitoba, and low 30's in eastern Manitoba. The bulk of the heat on the day Sunday will be in the central and northern regions of Manitoba. The lakes areas again will feel cooler with the result of the ice cover in some locations. 

Sunday Night: There will be a chance for showers in southwestern Manitoba, during the overnight timeframe. There may be a rumble of thunder but the main unsettled weather will be in Montana and NW ND. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens there is a chance that ice covered areas will be cooler. 

First half of the week: There will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms on Monday through Wednesday, some of which may be severe as a favourable environment develops for severe weather as a result of strong upper level support, moisture and a unstable environment with low pressure systems moving through. We will be watching this in future model runs and we will keep you in the loop, right now we cannot tell anyone where these storms will happen including Winnipeg, Brandon or any localities as it is too early to narrow down exact locales. Temperatures will be in the upper twenties to start the week. 

Warm Weather Returns and Spring will Fully Arrive. Good News for your start to the week.

 

Hey everyone, what an unusual spring we have had this season so far. This past week southern Manitoba experienced it's first sandstorm ever, our temperatures took a swing in to the 20's for the first time this season, and we have had flip flopping temperature patterns non stop from warm to cold, cold to warm. There was even snow in wasagaming this long weekend. Well I have some good news, that trend looks to end this week as we finally get into an upper pattern that allows for warmth to persist as high pressure moves off to our east shifting our winds to a southerly to southwesterly flow. Find Out more in this latest blog. 

Tuesday: Will be a generally calm and sunny day with a northerly flow still present allowing our temperatures to remain generally cooler than average for the day with high temperatures in the upper single digits in the east, with highs in the low teens around 10C for the red river valley with highs in the low to mid teens in the western part of Manitoba. A generally cool night will be on tap for the red river valley and eastern Manitoba with lows hovering in and around 0C some localities may drop into the low minus single digits, a risk of frost is possible in these areas. 

Wednesday: The winds should be out of the south during the morning hours with an improvement in the upper pattern that will favour the warmer weather starting in the afternoon, high temperatures in the teens are likely with areas of southwestern Manitoba possibly reaching highs near 20C. Unfortunately for those living along the lake shores of Lake Manitoba and Winnipeg will only see highs in the low teens, as the lakes are still partially frozen over. Overnight some clouds may drift in from saskatchewan with some leftover possible shower activity drifting through during the late evening and late night hours, none of this looks like it will be in the form of thunderstorms. Temperatures during the night will be in the upper single digits in southwest and south central MB with lows in the east possibly staying around or above 10C, the interlakes will unfortunately drop into the mid to low single digits.

Thursday: Will be the warmest day of the week so far with high temperatures reaching the upper teens and low 20's especially along the international border, there will be an area of instability in southwest Manitoba during the late afternoon and evening along a warm front that may bring a risk of thunderstorms in the western part of the province during the evening hours with a small chance that south central Manitoba will see something but doubtful for the east. I don't think this will move into eastern Manitoba most models are keeping it in the southwest part of the province and in North Dakota. We at the weather centre of Manitoba will update you if this changes as it is a few days out still. Overnight lows will drop into the low teens and upper single digits for most as we go into the overnight timeframe. 

Friday and the Weekend: Unsettled weather may be on tap with a chance for showers and  thunderstorms as a trough sits over our area, nothing will be rained out though there will be a chance of some sunny skies between these rainy periods. We will monitor this trend as it may persist into the week next week. Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper teens in the east and low teens in the west, overnight lows in the upper single digits are likely. Temperatures could hit the upper teens and low 20;s on Saturday and highs in the upper 20's on Sunday. We will keep you in the loop if things change between now and then. 

Winters Last Gasp?? It Better Be!! Potent Clipper System To Impact southern and central Manitoba

 A strong and potent low pressure system will be impacting southern and central Manitoba before another cooldown impacts our region, another batch of snow, rain and freezing rain can be expected over the next 24-48 hours. Find out when and where the worst of the weather will occur in my latest blog update.

Today: A batch of snow will be impacting the central and western portions of Manitoba as a trough sets up over NW Ontario, behind this trough is where the heaviest of snow looks to setup. Snow or heavy snow will be falling today over central Manitoba from Swan River to Dauphin to Bissett, highways are already closed in the parklands part of Manitoba. Snow will persist into the latter half of the day, there also is a risk for freezing rain in southern Manitoba this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will be in the low minus single digits in western Manitoba, with temperatures in the lower single plus side of single digits in southern sections of Manitoba. 

Tonight: This evening the system will be developing stateside bringing with it another batch of rain which will likely transition into a freezing rain and rain snow mix as it moves through the red river valley, parts of southwestern Manitoba and eastern Manitoba. Snow will weaken but will persist further north in the interlakes and parts of the parklands. There will be a decent shot at some rain showers in southeastern Manitoba during the evening, then a transition to possible snow or freezing rain after midnight in south central Manitoba. Snow will likely impact areas of far eastern sections of southwestern manitoba, by Carberry or MacGregor possibly Brandon. Snow will persist into the morning hours for most of southern Manitoba, the heaviest band looks to setup over the red river valley. Freezing rain totals only 1-5mm, snowfall totals likely from 5 to 10cm in a corridor from Winkler, to Carman to Winnipeg NE to Beausejour and Bissett. I have attached a graphic below of possible snowfall totals. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 25cm is possible in West Central Manitoba and the western parklands, localized areas may see 30cm. Dauphin:15-20cm, Brandon: 1-5cm, Winnipeg: 5 to 10cm. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low minus single digits with areas of the west seeing lows close to minus ten. 

Friday: Periods of light snow will persist in the morning and afternoon into the evening for central parts of Manitoba, and the northern red river valley maybe just missing Winnipeg. Only 1 to 3cm will fall by the end of the day. Elsewhere cloudy skies are likely with high temperatures in the minus single digits below average for this time of year. 

Friday Night: The low pressure system should begin clearing out during the overnight by morning all of it should be in Northern Ontario, behind it mostly cloudy skies are likely in the east with partly cloudy skies in the west by morning. With overnight lows in the low minus single digits. 

The Weekend: Moderating Temperatures are likely with daytime high temperatures in the low single digits and low minus single digits during the overnight. Even warmer conditions are likely to start the week with high temperatures in the upper single digits and low teens. 

Potent Clipper System On The Way, Winters Last Snowfall???

 Hi everyone, Mike McGregor here. I am here to provide another weather update with details on the next system expected to impact southern and central Manitoba. 

Today: Sunny to partly cloudy skies are likely to continue with calm conditions continuing, temperatures today are in the low minus single digits with highs near zero. 

Tonight: Clear conditions are likely with temperatures in the low minus single digits in the southwest to temperatures in the low minus teens in eastern Manitoba with areas in the Lake Winnipeg area seeing lows in the minus 20's. 

Tuesday: As the low pressure system approaches cloudy skies are likely with some parts of the day having sunny periods. Temperatures in the low minus single digits are likely in portions of western Manitoba, areas in the rest of the south will reach the low plus side of single digits. 

Tuesday Night: The clipper system will begin moving into southern Manitoba, with rain mainly falling during the overnight timeframe from western Manitoba into the red river valley before the rain in the red river valley turns to snow and freezing rain during the morning hours. There is enough lift with this system to have thunder embedded within the rain and freezing rain. General non severe thunderstorms are possible during the overnight. The thing with this system is that it will be far enough north that the heaviest of the snow will be impacting central parts of Manitoba, there snow will begin during the late evening hours and will persist into the overnight timeframe. Snow and blowing snow with near zero visibility will occur in the interlakes and north interlakes region south of Thompson along a west to east line from swan river to bissett. Temperatures on Tuesday Night will likely drop only into the low minus single digits with the exception for southwest Manitoba where temperatures will remain above zero. 

Wednesday: The snow will then move into eastern sections of Manitoba during the latter half of the morning, snow and heavy snow will persist in the central parts of MB including Swan River to the interlake regions of Manitoba into the eastern regions. There is a chance for the system to wrap around enough that by late afternoon a batch of light flurries and or rain may form in southwestern Manitoba and the south central part of Manitoba. However the system looks to occlude/close off enough that clearing takes place during the afternoon in the south where high temperatures will rise into the mid single digits to near 10C. Areas further north will see highs in the low minus single digits. 

Wednesday Night: The eastern edge of the system will likely begin impacting parts of southern Manitoba with light snow and periods of blowing snow. No major accumulation is likely as it moves through. Overnight low temperatures will drop in the low minus single digits in southern Manitoba, with lows in the minus teens in the central part of Manitoba. 

Total Snowfall Accumulations,15-25 to 30cm likely in the interlakes and central Manitoba. 4 to 10mm of rain in the southwest and western red river valley. 4-8cm of snow in the red river valley with a trace to 2mm of rain and risk of freezing rain.  Graphic Below: (thanks to Justin Oretel For Posting this Graphic. 

 

Second Half of The Week: Cooler weather conditions are likely with calmer weather. Highs in the low single digits with lows in the minus single digits. A warmup will come by the weekend, high temperatures in the upper single digits are possible with highs in the low teens even possible according to ECMWF AIFS model.  

Warmer weather Conditions to arrive this week, spring on the way?

 Southern sections of Manitoba and the region as a whole will be getting a taste of spring as warm air moves in with a pacific flow a return to above seasonal temperatures is likely to arrive the second half of the week. The clipper system that impacted us was part of the transition, thanks to multiple areas of low pressure that will be sitting over the western prairies this week. Find out how warm it will get and for how long. 

Wednesday: Wednesday will be the first warm day of  the week , cloudy skies are likely with a risk of freezing drizzle in the morning with Flurries possible.. Temperatures rising into the low single plus side of the single digits. There’s a chance the southwest may see rain showers during the afternoon. Not really much in the way of melting can be expected during the day,areas in the central part of Manitoba and the interlakes can expect highs in the minus single digits. Overnight lows will drop into the low minus teens in southeastern Manitoba and the interlakes with lows  in the minus single digits in the southwest . 

Thursday: temperature is on Thursday will rise into the low single digits in the southeast to the highest single digits in the southwest there will be a chance that areas in the river Valley could reach highs between 2 and 6°C areas in southwest between 6 to 8°C. Temperature is on Thursday night will drop into the low minus single digits in the south central and southeast part of Manitoba areas of the southwest, however will likely see temperatures overnight in the low plus side of a single digits. 

Friday: Friday will be the warmest day of the week for the southern part of Manitoba end of the weekend what temperatures and some areas of the southwest reaching 10 to 12°CAreas of south eastern Manitoba will only see high temperatures between two and 4 to 6°C in some localities. Friday night looks like a mild night with much of the south seeing lows in the low single digits, the exception of the interlakes and  the parklands regions seeing lows in the low minus single digits. 

The Weekend: Temperatures will remain mild on Saturday with high temperatures on Saturday only reaching the low single digits in the extreme south with highs in the minus single digits in the interlakes and central Manitoba. The cold returns on Sunday into the start of the week with values in the minus single digits for day time highs and. Overnight lows in the minus teens. The cooldown will persist into the week next week. 

Strong Montana Low to Impact Southern Manitoba

 Hey folks I’m back with another weather blog update this time it’s about a strong Montana low that will impact southern Manitoba this Tuesday, looking like the worst of the system will be over by Thursday. Environment Canada already has warnings out for this system . 

Tuesday. The low pressure system will begin impacting western Manitoba with the possibility of freezing rain in areas of that region, there’s a chance that as the day persists some of that may come up to extreme southern portions of Manitoba up to the red river valley later in the day . Temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits remaining quite warm. Freezing rain will begin transitioning to snow after wards the supper timeframe 

Tuesday night: This is when the worst of the system looks to impact our region with the increasing chances of snow and blowing snow over our region, snow and blowing snow will begin impacting much of southern Manitoba . Wind gusts over southern Manitoba may exceed 60km/h at times especially over the red river valley . Temperatures will remain quite mild with overall values in the minus single digits. 

RDPS model run for snowfall totals 

Vs 

NAM Snowfall totals. 

Wednesday: Snow will persist into the second half of the day when it will begin slowly winding down in intensity by the evening hours. Highways will be likely treacherous or even closed down by the time this system is over with. Travel isn’t recommended, until snow crews can get out. Temperatures will remain mild in the south except for a portion of the riding and assesisppi mountains where highs in the minus teens in the lower range are possible . Travel isn’t recommended in these conditions. 

Snowfall Totals: Much of the region can expect between 15-25cm with most of the snow likely in a corridor west of Winnipeg seeing the highest amounts, with areas by Brandon and western regions expecting the highest amounts with some areas at risk of 30-35cm in the purple shown above. 

Wednesday night: Low pressure clears out as it does so a large area of arctic air will begin slowly moving in behind it. It will take a while to reach the southeast with areas of the rest of the province seeing temperatures in the low minus teens , especially in the interlakes and western Manitoba on Wednesday night. 

Second half of the week: Temperatures will continue to make a nose dive but slowly as the arctic air takes a while to reach southern Manitoba especially the southeast. Minus teens temperatures may not be felt in the southeast until Friday afternoon. 

I’m back!! Warm weather stays in southern Manitoba after deep freeze.

 Hello everyone welcome I’m back with your weekly weather blog updates, it looks like it’s going to be an interesting week ahead weatherwise what temperature is on the upswing well have details about it in this week’s weather blog. 

Monday: Monday will be a day with mainland, cloudy skies with the presence of a low pressure system over a region. Temperatures on the day Monday will be in the lower single digits areas south of Highway one temperatures will remain a degree or two above zero, what areas north of that will see temperatures in the lower minus single digits.  There will be a chance for flurries in the early morning hours behind it. An Arctic air mass will slightly infiltrate our region however temperatures will remain warm. Overnight low temperatures on Monday night will be in the upper minus single digits between -10 to -5°C. Most of the snow that is forecast will be in northern Manitoba as southern Manitoba remains in the warm sector 

Tuesday:

Behind the low pressure system on Tuesday afternoon temperatures will be a little bit cooler than they were on Monday with sunny skies, likely in the afternoon hours and temperatures in the lower - minus single digits with areas in the Interlakes in the upper minus digits closer to -10°. Tuesday night cold Arctic arrow infiltrate our region in southeastern Manitoba specifically areas of western Manitoba remain quite mild with Lows in the low minus single digits between -4 and -6° areas in southeastern Manitoba will see low temperatures in the minus teens with some areas in the Interlakes in the -20s. 

Wednesday: another burst pacific air will be infiltrating on the Talbot on the day Wednesday with more cloud cover except for areas in extreme eastern Manitoba. You can thank the cold arctic air which infiltrated overnight as a result of Arctic high-pressure, which will begin moving off to our east on Wednesday, which will help with a southerly flow over our region. Temperatures will be in the low minus single digits between -3 and -6C. 

Second half of the week it looks like that mild pacific air will still continue infiltrating our region heading well into the weekend with temperatures, possibly on a couple of days reaching above 0°C there isn’t any sign of the Arctic air returning onto our region until next week in the middle of the week so it looks like there’s warm weather that we’ve been experiencing will persist and get out and enjoy it while you can! 

Colorado low system to impact southern Manitoba for Thanksgiving Weekend

 Hello folks I am back after not being able to write blogs over the last few months. It has been an interesting summer with sleeper setups, tornado events coming out of nowhere. Forecasts that were supposed to deliver potential for tornado events that never happened, there was concerns that SW MB one day this summer would have had dangerous storms. And this month flash flooding occcuring in Steinbach overnight with 125mm of rain in one night. And just 2 weeks ago a storm that we weren’t completely expecting formed over southern Manitoba SW of Winnipeg which turned into a strong storm complex that lasted well into NW Ontario . I will have a blog reviewing this summer coming up in the next few weeks. 

(Forecast wind speeds in southern Manitoba during the night into Monday) Potential exists for damaging winds on the Manitoba lakes. 

Anyways the Colorado low that has developed over the southern sections of the SW United States is moving up into southern Manitoba, southern Manitoba's story will be rain and wind. Areas of Northern Manitoba will be experiencing snow. As the system approaches a broad swath of rain will be moving into southeastern sections of Manitoba during the overnight time frame into Sunday morning. There will be a risk for a couple of rumbles of Thunder but the mean weather occurrence overnight will be mainly rain showers persisting into the morning hours. temperatures during the overnight time frame will be mainly in the low teens. 

On Sunday  as the Colorado low moves into the central region of the province, rain will be moving into central western Manitoba and the parklands region of western Manitoba during the afternoon. Some of it might be thunderstorms as it moves into the interlakes by late afternoon. There will be a line of showers and potential weak thundershowers developing by the late afternoon in southern Manitoba as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens in areas of the south, up to the interlakes. Rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm are possible in the parklands where Rainfall warnings are in place. 

Sunday night winds will increase over a large portion of southern Manitoba with gusts continuing to reach 90 to 95km an hour in areas of the interlakes further south gusts from 60 to 80 are possible for a large section of southern sections of the province. there is concerns that areas of the central interlakes up into far northern sections of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba may see wind gusts up to 100km an hour or higher. Temperatures for the evening will drop into the low single digits. a majority of southern Manitoba will see winds from 50 to 60km an hour with gusts up to 90km an hour during the overnight time frame we will keep you updated on the weather centre of Manitoba about any alerts that get posted in regards to the winds. There also will be a area of snow that will develop in areas that see rain in central Manitoba on sunday night. This will not impact any parts of southern Manitoba. The good news is that the snow that does fall in this area should melt. Areas from Melita northeast into Swan River will see this as it moves northeast into areas of the far northern interlakes. 

Some unfortunate news however to start the week temperatures will likely only reach the mid to high single digits, during the day on Monday and overnight low temperatures to start the week will drop into the upper minus single digits which is literally the warmest that we could go for overnight lows. Upper single digits are usually warmer lower single digits are usually colder.. A return to more normal temperatures are likely by the middle to later half of the week . 

Updates about The Forecasting Conundrum Were In

 Everyone, I just wanted to inform you I apologize for the lack of weather posts this summer and this fall. It has been an incredibly difficult year for forecasting, not only for the United States but also for Canadians one of the things that I’ve noticed is the increased lack of accuracy with weather models, including high resolution convection allowing models one of the main problems I’ve come across is every single convector model over the last few months has shown a different output resolution for storms in Manitoba as well. 

There has been completely different outcomes with each model run and is because of the Trump administration in the United States cutting access to funding for meteorologists and firing staff in NWS offices, to launch Weather balloons. Computer model data has also significantly deteriorated in terms of quality therefore focus accuracy has gone down the gutter this year. I cannot confidently forecast to the level that I did last year at this point when it comes to forecasting storms even today all the weather models were hinting at thunderstorms, developing in the red river Valley and Southern Manitoba, today they developed along the American border and even at this moment, the model is suggesting thunderstorms impacting Winnipeg with upwards of 30 to 40 mm of rain and that seems to not be the case at all based on current radar data. I am looking forward to the full months and creating forecast for winter storms, but it has been incredibly difficult year for forecasting thunderstorms. Also we have had a couple of sleeper set ups where not a lot of models are suggesting storms happening and they pop up out of know where along the frontal system that moves into the province at this point I have to find some ways to Find more meaningful forecasting opportunities for next summer.   As for the administration in the United States I don’t think they will make any changes to the situation in United States are Weather offices, and this is contributing to the current problem with forecasting solutions. Find out more what I mean here: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/weather-balloons-stop-trump-cuts-forecasts-less-accurate-rcna198055

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-04-17/californias-national-weather-service-offices-reduce-services-amid-trump-admin-cuts

Showers and Thunderstorms likely tonight

 Southern Manitoba will be likely getting severe weather this evening and overnight as another round of severe storms is possible, thanks to another low pressure system moving into the region from eastern Saskatchewan. 

Photos of the HRRR model run with thunderstorms impacting our region tonight. App is Weather front. you can get it on the App Store , model data is available as well.

Above: Severe weather risk map as shown by Environment Canada for this afternoon evening.

Below: Severe weather risk map from Environment Canada for tonight. 

I write this blog at 4:46 PM. There is a small cluster of thunderstorms by Portage La Prairie and Elie, which may make it swing to Winnipeg by around 6 PM. These storms will be the first round, before another round comes in tonight. Feel free to read on for information about tonight’s severe weather threat . 

Ahead of this low pressure system temperatures are likely to skyrocket well into the upper 20s in southeastern Manitoba and south Central regions were as areas of south western Manitoba into south eastern Saskatchewan will see high temperatures later today. Reach the low mid 30s with huge ex values corresponding higher in the mid upper 30s in south western Manitoba and mid 30s in the southeast part of Manitoba. Currently a large swath of 3000-5000 J per kilogram cape is positioned in extreme south eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba with the swath of instability moving into southern Manitoba towards the middle to latter evening hours. Along with this supercell composite values between 4 to 10 are in place for a large portion of southwest, which will increase the overall shear available for thunderstorms once they develop. One of my main concerns is the storm relative helicity available for all thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba between 200 to 500 m/s squared. 

There will be no shortage of moisture in Southern Manitoba dew points you clean 15 to 25°C with a higher view point and southwestern Manitoba as the front encounters, the moisture shear and instability there will be an increased risk for super cells developing this evening in southwestern Manitoba. The best threat right now for tornadoes is in the tornado watch area, which includes areas south of Dauphin to the American border. During the evening hours from 5-9pm risk for tornadoes during the initial phase of development with hail the size of baseballs and upwards of 50 to 75 mm of rain in storms. If these storms can congeal into a line depending on how far east they make it there could be a risk for the severe Weather area to move as far east as Winnipeg and Beauséjour, and the beaches area. It appears the main risk area for these dangerous storms will be in Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan border as far east, as the white shell with a marginal risk expected as you go further east however, areas of the interlakes and western Parklands will likely experience the brunt of the system, I have attached some photos of the simulated radar imagery for this evening. It appears that the storm system and storm threat is significant enough that Reed Timmer is highlighting the concern in his post normally he doesn’t talk about Canada. 

Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist during overnight timeframe and will clear during warning hours another round if possible and settle. Weather is likely tomorrow afternoon as the cold front goes in, but the atmosphere may have a hard time recovering from the storms overnight so if storms do fire tomorrow, they end up being non severe in nature. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid teens as thunderstorms impact most folks before a rebound to the upper teens in the morning hours. Thursday : expects a risk for unsettled weather during the early afternoon hours as the front passes the region behind it sunny skies are forecast with temperatures in the low 20s with the exception of southwestern Manitoba in the 20s under a dryer cooler air mass. 

Risk for showers and unsettled weather,  thunderstorms are not likely however a northerly flow will establish cooler temperature of pattern on Friday with highs only in low 20s and overnight lows in the low teens. It looks like Southern sections Manitoba on Friday and Friday night, will allow enough warm air moving over the Manitoba Lakes to produce some lake affect showers that will persist into early Saturday. 

On Friday night expect temperature is to be in the low teens and daytime highs on the day Saturday in the upper teens and low 20s . 

Severe Weather Threat Returns to Southern Manitoba

Hey, what’s up everybody? I have an update on the weather situation in Southern Manitoba. We have an interesting next 24 to 48 hours on the way. Southern instructions in Manitoba is at risk of seeing some severe weather on the day Monday. A trough of low pressure is expected to approach our region.

Tornado threat on the day Monday for southern Manitoba shown  (Above). 

During the day Monday (Above) severe weather is possible in these regions simulated radar from high res models. There may be some residual showers from convection left over in southeastern Manitoba as that clears out temperature should skyrocket into the upper 20s. Dewpoint temperatures should rise into the upper teens and low 20s and it looks like sheer will rise into the 50 to 60 knot range towards the evening. Ahead of this General MUCAPE values look to exceed 2000 J per kilogram, with super cell composite values less than eight. All of this combined along with approaching upper level trough there will be a risk for scattered super cell thunderstorms with the potential for hail up to the size of golf balls, and an isolated risk of tornadoes . There is a chance that there may be a line of thunderstorms which develop further to the west earlier in the day. Areas at risk are from Portage La Prairie east to Winnipeg and NE to the Lake Winnipeg area.  It all depends on how the system evolves. Models have been fairly inconsistent this year however, look for a stormy evening in southeastern Manitoba. If nothing happens just know I was writing this to inform you all of the possibility of this type of weather happening. 

On Monday night, expect storms to clear out of the region. Then another increasing threat for storms as likely as another thunderstorm complex develops in south eastern Saskatchewan and Northwestern, North Dakota. This may turn into a  MCS complex, which will move north east through the late overnight timeframe into the morning hours. Models are kind of still inconsistent with the development and timing on the system forming. This will likely future a wind and rain threat with the last system in North Dakota giving wind gust up to 200 km an hour. I don’t think that this will be an occurrence with these storms maybe gusts  up to 100 at max. These storms will be known as ridge riders. They were likely be rainfall rates and after cause localized flash flooding Justin and I will monitor this situation on the early morning hours on Tuesday. 

Tuesday, I’m expecting thunderstorms persist throughout the early morning to late afternoon hours in the southeast part of Manitoba. This may change and I will update this information at the comment section. Mostly cloudy skies are likely in the day on Tuesday after thunderstorms clear. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the low to mid 20s except for areas in the southwest, which will be in the upper teens for most of the day by evening. All of southeastern Manitoba will be in the teens as a much cooler air mass comes in behind the front.

Much calmer weather conditions are likely on Wednesday.  With highs in the 20’s once again expected There is also a chance on Wednesday morning for another round of convection however, this is only showing on one model solution at the time.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Arrives

 Southern Manitoba will be seeing a return to possible thunderstorms in the southeast part of Manitoba during the day Sunday. It has been a relatively quiet last couple of weeks in southeastern Manitoba, the west has been lighting up a lot lately. However that is about to change, as a low pressure system is set to impact areas of NE ND and NW MN. This same low is likely to set off some unsettled weather over the next 24 hours. 

(Above): NAM convection likely developing during the afternoon in SE MB. Potential for severe thunderstorms are there.

(Above): Thunderstorms which will likely be severe in the southeast may develop during the morning hours, before another round may develop in north Dakota by mid afternoon moving NE into the red river valley.) I will have a update in the morning with another photo above this updated.  

Sunday: An area of instability is likely over the extreme southeast in the morning hours, models earlier were showing robust convection developing in the southeast from Steinbach to the whiteshell areas with severe thunderstorms a possibility. That area of the province is in a slight risk. These thunderstorms will be quite potent, there is a risk of damaging winds, large hail. Flooding rains are likely in the areas that are impacted by these storms in the morning hours. Tornadoes however do not look likely. Based on latest convective models there will be another threat developing later in the day in the red river valley for severe thunderstorms however a marginal risk will exist in this area. My concern is that the NAM model has been showing relatively strong shear, so if storms happen they may rotate however Justin mentioned to me tornadoes arent as likely in our neck of the woods but higher in NW MN. However any storms that develop will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall, and large hail. Given that we will be on the backside of the low pressure system there may be some brief spin ups. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely move north and northeast quite quickly. I will know more specifics in the morning, but regardless this is going to be southeastern Manitobas turn at showers and storms. Temperatures in the afternoon will only rise into the upper teens and low 20's. There will also be some humidity mixed in as well. Thunderstorms will likely clear out by the late evening hours. 

The Week Ahead: Calmer Weather is likely with temperatures moderating in the teens and low 20's. There may be a few low pressure systems that move through during the week. 

Severe Weather Threat Returns to southern Manitoba. Weak Tornado threat Possible .

 Hello, what is up everybody? I have a forecast update and this one is going to be short and brief. We do have some severe weather on the way for southern Manitoba and a region, which will not only bring well needed rain for the wildfire situation, but it will also help Reduce our overall drought situation. Tomorrow expect temperatures across southern Manitoba will rise into the 20s. There will likely be increasing humidity out ahead of the area of low pressure off to our south. The day may start off with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms north of the main area of low pressure. If that happens temperatures may have a hard time reaching there day time highs clearing can be expected during the latter half of the afternoon. If we avoid the initial round of showers and thunderstorms, some of the Weather models are suggesting that areas of southeastern Manitoba may rise into the upper twenties and possibly low 30s where as the southwest will see highs in the teens, This is all dependent on initial convection. Regardless of whether this happens later in the day with the low pressure system moving into our region, there will be increasing upper level support for shear as well as instability we’re looking at CAPE from 1,000 to 1,500J/Kg and EHI of 1 to 5. This will not only increase the severe Weather potential, but there will be a higher likelihood that a couple of spin ups (tornado threat is possible in these areas)  could happen in areas of the red river valley and just along highway 1 east of Portage La Prairie with Winnipeg included in this risk map. See photo below for a look at one of the SKEW T Graphs near the YWG area. Expect multiple rounds of convection to develop later today before clearing around midnight. Rainfall totals could exceed 50mm in some areas, 

Temperatures behind the system will cool off into the teens during the overnight timeframe. The system will move off to the east behind bringing a cooler air mass with overnight low temperatures in the single digits in the southwest and low teens in the east . Also, there will be initial rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the late evening and early overnight timeframe, which may persist into the day on Friday.