Thunderstorm and Rain Threat Returns

After we received a brief reprieve from the rainfall and thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba today, a return to wetter and stormier conditions is expected as a trough of low pressure enters the region. The day will start off with some morning cloudcover or sunshine, it all depends on overnight convection and where it goes, but right now I am leaning towards more sunshine and warmth than cloudcover. As the trough approaches heat and humidity will begin to rise throughout southern Manitoba as southeasterly winds draw gulf moisture northwards once again. With the humidity rising, dewpoint temperatures will rise into the 15 to 20C range for much of SouthMB with an increase to 20 to 25C by late afternoon for South Central Manitoba but likely for the rest of Southern Manitoba come evening. High Temperatures will likely top out in the mid to high 20's, with likely a few localities bearing into the 30's especially along the border and in Southeastern Manitoba. Combined together the humidex values could be feeling closer to 40C considering the NAM is forecasting a 35C to 40C range. Add that a trough will be moving through southwestern Manitoba for the late morning to late afternoon and into the Red River Valley by evening to overnight before leaving the province by morning.

CAPE Values are expected to rise into the 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG range for much of SouthMB on Tuesday

Every thunderstorm parameter is looking excellent for Southern Manitoba, things have changed in the last model run and as a result CAPE Values will be from 2,000 J/Kg by early afternoon to 4,000 J/Kg by afternoon and evening but less so overnight, LI's of -10 to -12 for southwestern manitoba, but -8 to -10 for the rest of the south. Dewpoints will also be high likely from the 15 to 25C range along the trough, a decent shear profile also looks to be in place for scattered places in southern manitoba. All combined severe weather looks likely for all of southern manitoba including Winnipeg, Brandon, though especially for the southwest. The threat will exist for large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, intense lightning and possibly tornadoes in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that form will likely experience upscale growth into what models are possibly hinting at an MCS for the Red River Valley and EastMB come evening. Watches and warnings may be issued tomorrow by Environment Canada, stay tuned for updates.

As for the day on Wednesday things will quiet down, with the possibilty of some more scattered showers and storms on the way for Wednesday in Eastern Manitoba as the low moves on through, severe weather may become likely . It will clear the province by late Wednesday. I'll be in Beausejour Wednesday so maybe I'll get some action. As for the rest of the week warmer and drier weather can be expected as a ridge builds but there could be some thunderstorm chances any will be weak and short lived.

Overall things will have to be monitored and kept an eye on, have a look and keep any eye on what models are saying http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en as they may change ideas on the new model runs. Anyways thank you and hopefully you enjoyed the post, I'll try and update things as best as I can through the day but I might be held back by my house chores tomorrow. Though updates will come in the evening likely.

Data was based on the 00Z Tuesday NAM Model Run and partly from A Weather Moment

Showers and Thunderstorms To Finish Off The Week.... Heading Into The Weekend

After what was a great week will now be another unsettled start to the weekend, as another area of low pressure marches across Southern Manitoba with an adjoining warm front going through today and a cold front passing by on Saturday.  The arrival of this low pressure system will bring forward a marginal to likely risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend right through to the start of the week, as is typical of mid June. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the Southwest portion of the province with some decent lightning detected in them, any of the activity there will spread northeastwards (mainly missing Winnipeg and the Red River Valley) creating the potential for heavy rainfall, some damaging winds, small hail and intense lightning. Another batch of showers and storms will form out in the southwest by late afternoon (behind the current activity) and travel to the east as the evening nears, reaching the Red River Valley by the mid evening period or around that time. Storms will travel into the Eastern half of the province getting themselves into a flattened out area of rain around the time they enter central Northwest Ontario. The threats with the storms will be small hail, intense lightning, heavy rains and some moderate winds, however that threat may change if severe storms become likely that would mean a chance of large hail, damaging winds, and possible supercells. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid to high 20's for the day ahead. I will monitor for updates on potential severe weather. For the weekend it looks like instability will be in place on Saturday and Sunday giving way to a chance at more scattered showers and storms with high temperatures in the mid 20's. No severe weather is anticipated, but with it being June anything can happen (there could be a chance). 

Much Nicer weather is forecast for the week with more heat and humidity and temperatures in the mid to high 20's to near 30C. Another severe weather potential arrives mid to late week. Enjoy next week while you can!

Data was in part from and compiled from pretty much all of the weather websites in my links, but mostly from A Weather Moment and JJ Winnipeg Weather..

Thunderstorm Outlook

There will be the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a cold front travels through the South, not only that there is a risk of some severe cells in the Southwest as the day goes on. The storms that turn severe will be very isolated and only last a short while. Any cloudcover we have today will not inhibit storm development, there are already storms ongoing in NW North Dakota. The storms will travel eastwards through the day reaching the Red River Valley by late afternoon to early evening/mid evening and into the eastern portions by late evening to overnight. So watch for storms later on...

You can find a good writeup on what expect at A Weather Moment...

Stormy Start To The Week With An Amazing End In Store...

Today's Thunderstorm Risk Map

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across parts of Southern Manitoba today, with another batch of showers and storms moving across the parklands at the moment. Any of the activity will weaken as we head into the late evening, however another batch of showers and storms from saskatchewan are forecast to spread into southwest Manitoba and into the inter lakes tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of it may reach the Red River Valley before weakening in the late morning. Rainfall amounts of 15 to 35mm can be expected in those showers and storms, though the bulk of the activity will hit areas just to the west and north of Winnipeg, however there is a slim chance that we might see something. Throughout the morning any showers or storms will dissapate making way for partly cloudy to partly sunny skies though a reemergence of showers and storms are likely as we head into the late afternoon tomorrow especially west of the Red River Valley on into EastMB. Thunderstorms will be likely as we get into the evening with SBCAPES of 500-1000J/Kg Storms may be severe at times, though they will weaken as the sun starts setting. The storms will all depend on the amount of sunshine that we get, the more the better. However if it stays cloudy all day in the south, storms will not form and then we will have a grey gloomy day all day long.

The rest of the week will offer much calmer conditions weatherwise as a ridge of high pressure builds into the province, temperatures will rise into the mid to high to high 20's by midweek with increasing humidity levels and the return 30+ humidex values. A chance for strong to severe storms return by the end of the week into the weekend.
So the summer weather is finally returning! Sorry for those who hate heat..

Overall a stormy but wonderful week on the way, enjoy!

Today's thunderstorm risk, also a new post on the way tomorrow morning...

 Discussion is coming soon...

Stormy Week On The Way

After what was a quiet weekend in Southern Manitoba with cloudy and cool conditions, we now can expect a return to more unsettled weather. A southwesterly flow will start taking shape over the northern plains with a ridge of high pressure building out in Eastern Canada. As a result the mean stormtrack will establish itself over the southern prairie provinces this week, bringing multiple areas of low pressure with periodic chances at showers and/or thunderstorms. The first wave of showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected late Monday into early Tuesday (with locally heavy rainfall), as an impulse spreads moisture from the Dakotas. Much drier weather is anticipated through the Middle of the week before we see the arrival of another low pressure system that will bring a more significant chance at rainfall and possibly some strong to severe thunderstorms through the Thursday-Saturday time period.  Those looking for sustained warmth you will likely have very little luck this week! The wet weather looks like it could trek onwards until the 8th of June based on the CFSV2 outlooks, then again this is not unusual for this time of year. On average June is usually the wettest month, as increasingly warmer and humid air creeps north of the border mixing with frontal systems crossing the prairies. Severe weather will become much more likely as we get into mid June.

My Amateur Summer Outlook for 2013

Summer 2013 is on the way and many people are already wondering how the season will turn out after our long winter, glad you asked! 

Before we get to that, we have to deal with the month of June first. It is usually around this time that severe weather starts to arrive as building heat from the United states starts clashing with cool air along frontal systems. Also, don't forget the fact that we can also start seeing heat coming in waves from the states. For example, last year we had gotten quite hot and humid already through the time period of June. Through this June we can expect to see pretty much the same, but a more variable weather pattern is expected as the main storm track situates itself over our region giving us a fair amount of different types of weather. There will be likely periods of warmer than normal temperatures, cooler than normal temperatures and most likely a number of days in a row where we see active weather rolling through as systems march there way across the region. With warmer weather in June we can always anticipate an increase in severe weather as we get into summer.

Temperature Outlook

Summer 2013 will be a fairly nice one for those of you who love heading to the beach, cottage, or camping. Temperatures will not be on the side of below normal so it won't be cold at all, which is great after our long winter. We won't be terribly hot either, we will actually be experiencing a little bit of both; we will be in the near normal zone which means will be dealing with some periods of warmer than usual weather mixed in with colder than normal weather, just like the month of June. We will be experiencing this kind of weather this summer thank's to the abundance of low pressure systems bringing heat and humidity ahead of them and cooler/drier weather behind them. If we have a period where we get upper level ridging and less low pressure systems we might get into a period of sustained warmth but it won't last long, similar to where we had heat in summer of 2012. However, our summer will not be like that at all at this point. Though if you live up in the interlakes expect cooler than normal temperatures to prevail thank's to the ice remnants and cooler than normal waters over North Lake Winnipeg & Manitoba.

Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation through the summer period will be above normal with more severe thunderstorms than normal (like the month of June) especially through areas of southern Manitoba. An abundant amount of low pressure systems will allow building heat & humidity from the USA to clash with the cooler air up North. Picture it as oil and water they don't mix well. This in turn will result in the likelihood of severe weather outbreaks quite frequently, bringing the threat forward for all types of severe weather including tornadoes. The most known types of severe weather include squall lines, bow echoes, derechos, MCS, MCC's, supercells and don't forget tornadoes. Localized flooding could also be a possibility during and after severe thunderstorm events. The most likely period for this active weather will be through the month's of June and July, with the month of August also a possibility. Overall the active summer weather will be sure to bring all of those well known storm chasers into the province, and keep those who chase on a regular basis quite busy! Don't forget all of the weather enthusiasts out there who have been waiting a long time for this to take place. If anyone asks about our Summer ahead, tell them we'll have a variable temperature pattern and wet weather with a bunch of opportunities here and there to take in the sun. 

The pattern for summer could change that it is why I will be watching carefully and updating as needed. In the meantime this is how it look's. (Summer Outlook Information was provided by Brett Anderson of Accuweather, Graphics and expanded thought's were my own)