Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Today

After we experienced a nice couple of days with showers and occasional storms mixed in with sunshine. We now are under the gun for severe weather once again, thank's to another trough of low pressure that is moving across the prairies.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Jul 13/14

A decent severe weather setup is in play today, with all of the conditions present and ready to go. Brad from A Weather Moment Quotes  "In the warm sector of this system ample daytime heating combined with increasing low-level moisture and gradual destabilization of the mid-to-upper-levels will work in tandem to produce MLCAPES of nearly 2000J/kg. The strong upper-level jets -- nearly 60kt at 500mb and over 100kt at 250mb will provide ample upper-level support for severe thunderstorms and, when combined with the surface flow and increasing 850mb LLJ in the late afternoon and evening, will produce 0-500mb bulk shear values of nearly 50-60kt." As a result there will be the likelihood for tornado producing supercells in areas of Southwestern Manitoba, bringing along with them the threats for large hail (Baseball size possibly) damaging winds, and deadly lightning. Areas under the gun include (Melita/Boissevain/Turtle Mountain Provincial Park/Virden/Souris/Western Parts of Killarney/Pilot Mound/Manitou and Brandon/Carberry/Treherene). Any storms that do produce tornadoes will likely give off weak to moderate tornadoes, however there is no way of telling the EF rating until damage is done. Folk's living in the threat area need to stay aware of changing and adverse weather condition's do get to safety if you see any green skies and or a funnel cloud/tornado! Don't wait for warnings to be issued, your window to the sky should be your warning. After the peak tornado timeframe ends (about 7pm) any activity should be able to merge together into a decent line of severe storms and travel eastwards through the evening hours. They will either weaken or maintain there strength as they move on eastwards into the Red River valley late evening or after midnight. That is why I have posted a slight risk for severe weather through and after the 12am period in the rest of Southern Manitoba. Things will calm down Sunday with sunshine and warmer weather, but not until we get through a few rough patches first.

Another chance at showers or thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday to start the week. Have a good time enjoying the storms!

Thunderstorm and Rain Threat Returns

After we received a brief reprieve from the rainfall and thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba today, a return to wetter and stormier conditions is expected as a trough of low pressure enters the region. The day will start off with some morning cloudcover or sunshine, it all depends on overnight convection and where it goes, but right now I am leaning towards more sunshine and warmth than cloudcover. As the trough approaches heat and humidity will begin to rise throughout southern Manitoba as southeasterly winds draw gulf moisture northwards once again. With the humidity rising, dewpoint temperatures will rise into the 15 to 20C range for much of SouthMB with an increase to 20 to 25C by late afternoon for South Central Manitoba but likely for the rest of Southern Manitoba come evening. High Temperatures will likely top out in the mid to high 20's, with likely a few localities bearing into the 30's especially along the border and in Southeastern Manitoba. Combined together the humidex values could be feeling closer to 40C considering the NAM is forecasting a 35C to 40C range. Add that a trough will be moving through southwestern Manitoba for the late morning to late afternoon and into the Red River Valley by evening to overnight before leaving the province by morning.

CAPE Values are expected to rise into the 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG range for much of SouthMB on Tuesday

Every thunderstorm parameter is looking excellent for Southern Manitoba, things have changed in the last model run and as a result CAPE Values will be from 2,000 J/Kg by early afternoon to 4,000 J/Kg by afternoon and evening but less so overnight, LI's of -10 to -12 for southwestern manitoba, but -8 to -10 for the rest of the south. Dewpoints will also be high likely from the 15 to 25C range along the trough, a decent shear profile also looks to be in place for scattered places in southern manitoba. All combined severe weather looks likely for all of southern manitoba including Winnipeg, Brandon, though especially for the southwest. The threat will exist for large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, intense lightning and possibly tornadoes in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that form will likely experience upscale growth into what models are possibly hinting at an MCS for the Red River Valley and EastMB come evening. Watches and warnings may be issued tomorrow by Environment Canada, stay tuned for updates.

As for the day on Wednesday things will quiet down, with the possibilty of some more scattered showers and storms on the way for Wednesday in Eastern Manitoba as the low moves on through, severe weather may become likely . It will clear the province by late Wednesday. I'll be in Beausejour Wednesday so maybe I'll get some action. As for the rest of the week warmer and drier weather can be expected as a ridge builds but there could be some thunderstorm chances any will be weak and short lived.

Overall things will have to be monitored and kept an eye on, have a look and keep any eye on what models are saying http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en as they may change ideas on the new model runs. Anyways thank you and hopefully you enjoyed the post, I'll try and update things as best as I can through the day but I might be held back by my house chores tomorrow. Though updates will come in the evening likely.

Data was based on the 00Z Tuesday NAM Model Run and partly from A Weather Moment

Showers and Thunderstorms To Finish Off The Week.... Heading Into The Weekend

After what was a great week will now be another unsettled start to the weekend, as another area of low pressure marches across Southern Manitoba with an adjoining warm front going through today and a cold front passing by on Saturday.  The arrival of this low pressure system will bring forward a marginal to likely risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend right through to the start of the week, as is typical of mid June. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the Southwest portion of the province with some decent lightning detected in them, any of the activity there will spread northeastwards (mainly missing Winnipeg and the Red River Valley) creating the potential for heavy rainfall, some damaging winds, small hail and intense lightning. Another batch of showers and storms will form out in the southwest by late afternoon (behind the current activity) and travel to the east as the evening nears, reaching the Red River Valley by the mid evening period or around that time. Storms will travel into the Eastern half of the province getting themselves into a flattened out area of rain around the time they enter central Northwest Ontario. The threats with the storms will be small hail, intense lightning, heavy rains and some moderate winds, however that threat may change if severe storms become likely that would mean a chance of large hail, damaging winds, and possible supercells. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid to high 20's for the day ahead. I will monitor for updates on potential severe weather. For the weekend it looks like instability will be in place on Saturday and Sunday giving way to a chance at more scattered showers and storms with high temperatures in the mid 20's. No severe weather is anticipated, but with it being June anything can happen (there could be a chance). 

Much Nicer weather is forecast for the week with more heat and humidity and temperatures in the mid to high 20's to near 30C. Another severe weather potential arrives mid to late week. Enjoy next week while you can!

Data was in part from and compiled from pretty much all of the weather websites in my links, but mostly from A Weather Moment and JJ Winnipeg Weather..

Thunderstorm Outlook

There will be the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a cold front travels through the South, not only that there is a risk of some severe cells in the Southwest as the day goes on. The storms that turn severe will be very isolated and only last a short while. Any cloudcover we have today will not inhibit storm development, there are already storms ongoing in NW North Dakota. The storms will travel eastwards through the day reaching the Red River Valley by late afternoon to early evening/mid evening and into the eastern portions by late evening to overnight. So watch for storms later on...

You can find a good writeup on what expect at A Weather Moment...

Stormy Start To The Week With An Amazing End In Store...

Today's Thunderstorm Risk Map

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across parts of Southern Manitoba today, with another batch of showers and storms moving across the parklands at the moment. Any of the activity will weaken as we head into the late evening, however another batch of showers and storms from saskatchewan are forecast to spread into southwest Manitoba and into the inter lakes tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of it may reach the Red River Valley before weakening in the late morning. Rainfall amounts of 15 to 35mm can be expected in those showers and storms, though the bulk of the activity will hit areas just to the west and north of Winnipeg, however there is a slim chance that we might see something. Throughout the morning any showers or storms will dissapate making way for partly cloudy to partly sunny skies though a reemergence of showers and storms are likely as we head into the late afternoon tomorrow especially west of the Red River Valley on into EastMB. Thunderstorms will be likely as we get into the evening with SBCAPES of 500-1000J/Kg Storms may be severe at times, though they will weaken as the sun starts setting. The storms will all depend on the amount of sunshine that we get, the more the better. However if it stays cloudy all day in the south, storms will not form and then we will have a grey gloomy day all day long.

The rest of the week will offer much calmer conditions weatherwise as a ridge of high pressure builds into the province, temperatures will rise into the mid to high to high 20's by midweek with increasing humidity levels and the return 30+ humidex values. A chance for strong to severe storms return by the end of the week into the weekend.
So the summer weather is finally returning! Sorry for those who hate heat..

Overall a stormy but wonderful week on the way, enjoy!

Today's thunderstorm risk, also a new post on the way tomorrow morning...

 Discussion is coming soon...

Stormy Week On The Way

After what was a quiet weekend in Southern Manitoba with cloudy and cool conditions, we now can expect a return to more unsettled weather. A southwesterly flow will start taking shape over the northern plains with a ridge of high pressure building out in Eastern Canada. As a result the mean stormtrack will establish itself over the southern prairie provinces this week, bringing multiple areas of low pressure with periodic chances at showers and/or thunderstorms. The first wave of showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected late Monday into early Tuesday (with locally heavy rainfall), as an impulse spreads moisture from the Dakotas. Much drier weather is anticipated through the Middle of the week before we see the arrival of another low pressure system that will bring a more significant chance at rainfall and possibly some strong to severe thunderstorms through the Thursday-Saturday time period.  Those looking for sustained warmth you will likely have very little luck this week! The wet weather looks like it could trek onwards until the 8th of June based on the CFSV2 outlooks, then again this is not unusual for this time of year. On average June is usually the wettest month, as increasingly warmer and humid air creeps north of the border mixing with frontal systems crossing the prairies. Severe weather will become much more likely as we get into mid June.