Warmer weather and sunnier conditions on the way, possible change to wetter conditions for the coming week

 Hello folks of southern Manitoba and those weather watchers in the southern part of the province we have an update on the weather for the weekend into early next week we'll see if we can add some information about the weather into the 2nd half of the week. On the heels of a low pressure system which impacted majority of southern Manitoba over the last couple of days is now moving into northwestern Ontario behind it a large area of high pressure will develop which will bring us slightly cooler temperatures to start the weekend however as we get into start the week it appears that we could have a return to warmer than normal conditions. Bottom line of beautiful weekend is more than likely to happen for us. In regards to the amount of rainfall that received areas west of Winnipeg received between 20 and thirty millimeters rain areas of southeastern Manitoba also picked up about 20 to twenty five millimeters of rain areas further north including the Interlakes only picked up about 10 to fifteen millimeters of rain and areas of the southwest also picked up similar amounts. I have attached three photos below with information on where the heaviest rainfall occurred from the CO CRAHS maps.

Saturday: High pressure looks to impact the majority of our region during the weekend specifically Saturday and Sunday could be some of the nicest days we've had in a long time, sunny skies are likely with high temperatures for majority of our region reaching the low teens and some areas may get close to the fifteen degrees celsius mark.

Saturday Night: Southern sections in Manitoba will be in a much cooler air mass on Saturday night as well mostly clear skies are likely however there is a possibility of fog patches developing in the Red River valley the good news is that this will not persist. There is also a low risk of frost for areas of The Western escarpment and areas around the Manitoba Lakes. Temperatures for a majority of the region will drop into the low to mid single digits.

Sunday: This will be one of the warmer days of the weekend and I'm actually kind of surprised with the latest model data suggesting high temperatures in the high teens for a majority of the our region especially if you're gonna be closer to the American border some areas could receive or at least get up to about twenty degrees Celsius this is something we have not seen in a couple weeks. The warmest of the weather is also likely to continue as we head into the week details on that below. 

Sunday Night: Overnight low temperatures will likely stay warmer again during the overnight. Sunday instead of seeing our little values drop closer to zero our low values will drop closer to the 10 degrees Celsius mark so that's a switch up from what we are forecast to see on Saturday night.

The week ahead: it looks like much of southern Manitoba will be in a warmer temperature pattern however a little pressure system is expected to impact southern Manitoba during the day on Tuesday through Thursday,  There is a possibility however that this system decides to move W further into Saskatchewan and Alberta there is a possibility that this may change depending on where the position sets up but a majority of the rain is likely to impact the Western prairies.We're still figuring out the details about this system. If the forecast changes and we get rain for our region during the week it'll be welcome news for our farmers. 

Cooler Weather Trend On the Way For Southern Manitoba, rain and wet conditions also likely this week.

Hello Folks I know its been a while since I last posted a blog I have been busy with moving and I also had to get over the flu a few weeks ago. I am back and better than ever though. I will have quick details for you all on the upcoming week ahead for our weather pattern. 

Rainfall accumulations as forecast by the NAM model, a general 5 to 10mm of rain is likely before another batch moves in to our area on Thursday. 

Tuesday: Southern Manitoba will be on the verge of another area of low pressure which will enter the region and during the evening hours, most like cloudy skies will likely be in place throughout the afternoon and evening. Precipitation including rain will move into areas of southwestern Manitoba late in the afternoon. Temperatures during the afternoon on Tuesday will soar into the high single digits and low teens the warmest of the weather will be across the south except for areas of the far northern eastern and western side of Manitoba . Tuesday Night: Rain will begin moving across southern Manitoba into far central regions during the overnight hours, there will be some regions in western Manitoba specifically by dauphin and Swan River that could experience periods of snow during the overnight hours. A general 3 to 5mm of rain is likely in all areas of the south except areas of the southwest part of Manitoba where 5 to 10mm of rainfall is more likely overnight. Temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid single digits with the majority of the region seeing low temperatures between one and five degrees Celsius.

Wednesday: During the day on Wednesday the rain which we experienced on Tuesday night will Will move north along with a frontal system into northern sections Manitoba, areas of southern Manitoba will start seeing increased levels of instability with a possibility of seeing thunderstorm energy values between 300 to 700 joules per kilogram there is a possibility of seeing weak garden variety thunderstorms in a scattered nature across southern sections of the region towards late afternoon areas at higher highest risk right now appear to be southwestern Manitoba portions of the Red River Valley and the escarpments of Western Manitoba by Riding Mountain National Park. This may change depending on the frontal system that is forecast to move through on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday for majority of the South will likely be in the upper single digits and low teens areas north of highway one for Central Western Manitoba the Interlakes and Central Eastern Manitoba will only see high temperatures in the mid to high single digits.

Wednesday night: A low pressure system developing is forecast to move into southern Manitoba with a wide swath of rain areas all areas will be impacted by this overnight as a system lifts into our region, The majority of the rain will be impacting our region by Thursday morning expect scattered showers with mostly cloudy skies during the overnight. Into the morning is when majority of the rain should start falling for a region between the saskatchewan/Manitoba Border and Winnipeg areas further east may not get impacted until later on the day on Thursday. By the morning hours areas of southwestern Manitoba will have received between 3 to 5millimeters of rain. Overnight low values will likely drop into a fairly mild overnight roll considering the last few nights will be a lot colder I'm looking at values between five and 10 degrees Celsius during the overnight mainly from a swath from From Pilot Mound to Winnipeg N into Gimli and SE into Sprague areas north of that will see overnight lows in the mid single digits.\

The second half of the week: Looks like unsettled weather weather will continue with rain persisting as a result of troughing over the Canadian Prairie provinces which will contribute to more rainfall accumulations by the end of the week we will know more on this low pressure system by Wednesday afternoon I will have another weather blog update on Thursday to detail this weather system that's coming in for our end of the week into the weekend which will hopefully experience some calmer weather conditions towards Friday.

Major Rainfall first of the season for Southern Manitoba.

Hello folks of southern Manitoba this is another weather update, we have some interesting weather on the way a low pressure system developing in Colorado will be moving into southern portions of Manitoba including areas in the north even though that I do not cover that forecast area there is a chance for some significant snowfall in areas of northern Manitoba and portions of Western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. This is the first of hopefully many low pressure systems to deliver moisture to desperately needed areas especially areas in the South that experience a drought this past winter. Read on to find out more about the weather impacts that are forecast with this low pressure system. 

Rain forecast to impact areas of southern Manitoba, system is going to impact the region. 

*Please note that forecast for temperatures will not be mentioned in the daily outlook they will be mentioned at the bottom at this post to allow for more clarification on snowfall and precipitation patterns for this forecast system.*

***This blog may be a little bit shorter than normal I am in the process of creating a playlist for my radio show tomorrow on CKUW so I am in the middle of multitasking but this blog should be sufficient enough for those who are looking for information on the upcoming rainfall expected over our region. *** 

Tuesday: Low pressure system will be off to our S in the United States in North Dakota during the afternoon ahead of it in the warm sector and to the north of the low a wide swathe of rain will begin moving into southern Manitoba starting in southwestern parts of the province from pilot mound to Portage La Prairie moving north east throughout the day by around lunchtime areas of the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba can expect to be seeing rain at times heavy persisting into the evening hours. This rain will basically cover all of southern sections of Manitoba including Western Parklands. Given the fact that this rain will be stalling over western parts of Manitoba for a majority of the afternoon on Tuesday they can expect to see the heavier amounts. If the heavier rain decides to set up further to the east in the Red River valley Pemina Valley and eastern Manitoba amounts instead of 10 to twenty five millimeters will be in the 25 to forty five millimeter range however current forecasts show that areas of the southwest and the West will receive between 20 and forty millimeters of rain areas in eastern Manitoba will be seen between 10 to twenty five millimeters of rain although heavier amounts in convective rainfall. There is a possibility that during the early afternoon to mid afternoon there may be a chance at seeing some thunderstorms but that chance appears to be very slim and only areas of the Red River valley and over areas by Lake Manitoba appear to be at the highest chance expect only a couple rumbles of Thunder as a possibility.

Tuesday night: a cooler air starts wrapping in behind the system bringing a possibility of snow mix with rain mainly areas of The Red River valley points east into eastern Manitoba areas south of highway one also have a possibility of seeing this. It may continue into the morning hours however given the fact that roads will still be warm a lot of the snow will melt on contact. Models are disagreeing on the placement of where the transition to snow and if that happens depends on where the cold air wraps around behind the system. There is a risk that areas from just north of the international border all the way into the interlakes for all of Southern Manitoba will possibly see some slight snow accumulations on Tuesday night. This will not be a significant snowfall by any means as majority of the precipitation is forecast to fall as rain. 

(Rainfall Totals in map shown above)

Wednesday: During Wednesday in the morning hours a broad swath of rain mixed with snow will move through southern ports of Manitoba majority of the snow should melt on contact in urban centres including some rural areas I'm expecting that this rain snow or just plain snow fall will end towards the early to mid afternoon hours. The model that's putting out the highest snowfall amounts is the NAM NEST which is suggesting areas mainly north of Winnipeg into the Interlakes W to Dauphin can expect to see between 10+ centimeters of snow, I highly doubt that this is going to happen for areas South of the Manitoba Lakes in the Red River Valley, eastern parts of the province will escape this with only about one to about nine or ten centimeters possible. 

Wednesday night: It appears that areas of our region will escape the majority of the snow that is expected to hit northern areas., in southern sections of Manitoba will expect to be mostly cloudy or partly cloudy during the overnights winds will be also out of the north making the temperatures quite brisk. There is a chance for some Lake effect flurries or showers during the overnight. The bulk of the precipitation which impacted the region on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in Ontario at the time.

During the second half of the week the low pressure system is forecast to impact areas of northern Manitoba however the effects will be felt minimally in areas of southern Manitoba with only flurries or rain showers of possibility during Thursday and Thursday night Friday will be much calmer as low pressure system moves into northwestern Ontario. 

Temperatures for the period:

 Tuesday expecting high temperatures in the afternoon in the mid to high teens with the exception of Southwestern Manitoba seeing high temperatures in the high single digits, 

Temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the lower end of the single digit mark areas may escape seeing overnight low values around the freezing mark.

Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the mid to high signal digit range areas of the southeastern parts of Manitoba will be likely to see the warmer values during the afternoon.

 Wednesday night overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the low single digits in some areas especially in areas of southwestern Manitoba around the zero to minus 5 degrees Celsius mark. Areas east of the Pembina Valley will escape the overnight lows around 0C. 

Update and a look at a much warmer weather pattern headed for southern Manitoba.

 Hey Manitoban's  Mike McGregor here, I have some updates for you all on the weather pattern ahead. It's been a while since I did a blog update but I am nonetheless looking forwards to the Easter Holiday coming up on Monday. Easter is an important time of year for me as a person of Anyways on to a weather story of our own, hopeful weather is the theme this weekend. Today is the day that Jesus rose from the Grave giving us the gift of eternal life in heaven as a free Gift John 3:16, conquering death and the Grave. It is a story of hope for mankinds redemption from sin and the penalty of having to pay for it for eternity. (Romans 3:23) Jesus said when he died "It Is Finished!" (John 19;28-30) (1 Corinthians 15:1-4). He rose again 3 days later on Easter! That is the story of Easter! 

(Above: Warming pattern arriving later in the week, thanks to ridging in western Canada developing. This pattern is more typical of early spring. Hope you enjoy this outlook :-). )))

Sunday: Much of southern Manitoba will experience a beautiful day on Sunday the main jet stream is expected to be to our S with us sitting on the cooler side of the pacific jet. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely on the day into the latter half of the afternoon temperatures will remain on the above freezing side with areas in the interleakes and parklands of Manitoba including Eastern Central Manitoba may see high temperatures slightly cooler around zero to minus two degrees Celsius. Area South of the Manitoba Lakes will be basking in temperatures above zero with a pretty decent chance of seeing highs between one and four degrees Celsius on the day Sunday. It looks like Southern Manitoba will be again experiencing partly cloudy and mostly cloudy skies on Sunday night under the presence of high pressure, I'm not expecting any precipitation for Sunday night into Monday . Overnight low temperatures during Sunday night will likely drop into again the low minus single digits between minus one to minus five degrees celsius.

Monday: Much of southern Manitoba will be under the influence of the southerly flow as the high pressure moves off to the east, a warm fronts and low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba during the evening hours on Monday however it will not bring any precipitation for this forecast. Looks like temperatures on the day Monday will rise into the mid plus side single digits in the southwest part of Manitoba with areas in the southeast in the low single digits there is a possibility that some places may reach near 5 degrees if those locations are snow free during the afternoon. Monday Night: On Monday night a small disturbance is forecast to impact the western half of Manitoba into the red river valley, interlakes, and eastern manitoba later on (by morning). As it moves southeast there may be a rain snow mix but because temperatures look to remain quite mild overnight there will only be the smallest chance this completely switches over to snow. A quick 1 to 5mm of rain is likely with this quick shortwave as it moves through southern Manitoba during the overnight hours. Flurries are more likely as you travel into the central and northern interlakes areas of Manitoba. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing in the south central part of Manitoba about 1-3C. 

Tuesday: On the day Tuesday it will be our transition day into much warmer weather, a strong ridge of high pressure will be building in western Canada. A weak trough is likely to impact areas of eastern Manitoba bringing with it some residual cloudcover and winds out of the NW as the ridge builds to our west. Although it may be not as nice as Monday, our high temperatures will still rise into the 2 to 8C range with areas free of cloudy skies seeing the warmest temperatures. Areas of western Manitoba and the red river valley will be seeing much of the warmest high temperatures on Tuesday. Tuesday Night: Fog and cloudy skies are possible in the red river valley and snow covered areas, still yet to be determined. However overnight low temperatures again will be below zero from -1 to -5C. 

Second Half Of the Week: The warming temperature pattern continues, the ridging in western Canada will build into the central prairies and I also see the resulting temperatures in the 5 to 10C range midweek with overnight lows in the low to mid single digits with a increase to the 10 to 15C range by the weekend. Overnight lows will also rise into the low to mid single digits with a increase to the high single digits next weekend. Stay Tuned for more updates on this developing pattern and happy Easter!

Happy Easter!!!

Warm Above Seasonal Temperatures Persist

 Well Folk's it looks like southern Manitoba is getting another preview of early Spring weather, temperatures over the last few days have been running above seasonal, with our daytime high on Monday soaring to near record highs especially with Morden reaching a high of 14C, and Winnipeg seeing high values above 10C. This is the warmest weather that we have experienced since the month of October 2023. The overall atmospheric pattern right now is suggesting we will see a strong surge of pacific air to end this week, however that trend is looking likely to end this weekend. There is also a chance for more rain and snow on Friday. Find out when and where in this week's weather update. 

(Tonight: A strong risk for fog is likely in areas of southwestern Manitoba tonight with lower levels of risk in areas of eastern Manitoba). 

Wednesday Night: Tonight mostly cloudy skies are likely with, periods of clearing at times. The sun has been peaking out off and on this afternoon especially in areas of the red river valley. Tonight there also is a risk for for patches and some near low visibility in areas of southwestern Manitoba, as today's melted snow increases the overall moisture content in the lower levels. Snowpack density is also a lot higher in southwestern Manitoba. There is also a risk for patchy fog in southeastern Manitoba but a lot lower risk than last night. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop a degree or 2 below freezing in areas of southwestern Manitoba, the red river valley, interlakes and the parklands. There is a possibilty of snow free areas in southeastern Manitoba only staying a degree or 2 above freezing. 

Thursday: We are likely to be under the influence of high pressure on thursday, with a slight northerly flow present. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday than on the day Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies are also forecast which will may prevent some melting from happening. Even though there will be periods of sun. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower single digits (2 to 4C) in all areas of southern Manitoba and some sections of extreme southwestern Manitoba may see highs in the low minus single digits (0 to -2C). 

Thursday Night: A low pressure system will be approaching the area from the north, us being in the warm sector may allow us to briefly switch over to a westerly flow ahead of the main system. This will help keep temperatures mild on Thursday night. Overnight low temperatures will stay in the (-1C to -4C) range every where thursday night. There will be increasing clouds overnight with mostly cloudy skies by morning. 

Friday: (Above: Strong winds likely on Friday with a map of the expected precipitation in our region. Green is rain, blue is snow). This is when the weather is expected to get interesting a low pressure system is expected to move into our region with strong winds out of the west and southwest becoming more likely. Gusts of 50 to 80km/h can be expected from the northern parklands into the interlakes moving into southeastern Manitoba by the early evening. During the day most impacts will be felt along an area from the manitoba parklands, into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba mainly during the afternoon. There will be a band of rain moving into southern sections of manitoba, the edge of the rain band looks likely to be cut off at the Portage La Prairie, Elie areas with a dry frontal passage likely in western Manitoba. The rain band looks likely to only impact areas of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. This system will not be bringing any snow except for areas of Nopiming provincial park areas or the east side of Lake Winnipeg where temperatures look to support that. Temperatures appear to be too warm for any snow elsewhere. Highs across the region are expected to soar into the mid single digits in areas of the south, except areas of the northern red river valley highs will likely reach the low single digits (1 to 3C). 

Friday Night: Looks as though that the frontal system is going to be moving into northern Ontario on Friday night, with a slight northerly flow behind the system. The good news is that this system will be moisture starved so only residual flurries scattered in nature are likely, air will be cold enough to bring some lake effect streamers coming off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg. Overnight lows in the lower minus single digits are likely for areas north of highway 1 and areas south of highway and the lakes will remain above zero overnight.

The Weekend: Calm weather continues with temperatures running a degree or 2 below zero on the weekend for daytime highs with lows in the high minus single digits and low minus teens. Calm weather continues next week.

Major Winter Storm Coming to Southern Manitoba,

 Southern Manitoba get ready we are about to experience a major winter storm, one that we have not seen in over a year. Unlike the last one we had, this one will be significant. Before getting into the details, I want you all to know that the system is still developing in Montana so the outcome may be different than this forecast describes. So far areas with the worst of weather forecast is southwestern Manitoba, and the interlakes. Areas of southeastern Manitoba still have some uncertainty. Find out where and when the most intense weather can be expected and read further to find out details for your community in this storm update. 

Tonight: A strong low pressure system will be situated over Montana tonight moving into North Dakota by morning with a level of 98.9MB. As this happens a likely setup for inital snow and blowing snow is likely from west to east along areas of the border moving north into the interlake regions. This will be a narrow swath that will not be the main event of the storm. As we move into the overnight hours, this storm system is likely to impact majority of the SE part of Saskatchewan during the morning hours. Bottom line the significant winter weather does not start does not look to start until the early morning hours especially in the southwestern parts of Manitoba including the southern Red River valley including southeastern Manitoba . Winds however will be on a stronger side gusting from 50 to 70 kilometers an hour especially towards the early morning hours in the southwest parts of Manitoba where winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings are in place. Tonight overnight low temperatures for majority of the Manitoba appear to be in the upper minus single digits areas of Western and southwestern Manitoba will be in the lower minus teens wind chill values correspondingly however will be colder than the minus ten degrees Celsius range for majority of the region except areas of South Central and southeastern Manitoba.

Tomorrow (above RDPS Model and lightning potential from the HRRR model): It looks like a majority of the significant winter weather is going to occur in southwestern Manitoba as forecast during the early morning to mid afternoon majority of that area will be under moderate to very heavy snowfall with snowfall rates of three to five centimeters per hour also there will be strong northwesterly winds gusting up to 50 to 70 kilometers an hour at times.  Snow in western Manitoba will persist through the day on Sunday into Sunday evening, Of concern on Sunday will be the heavy snowfall race which will drastically reduce visibility highway travel is not recommended for areas from the Manitoba border E to Winnipeg south to the American border north into the Interlakes including Gimli Fisher Branch and areas over Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Highway travel is not recommended if you are heading out please make sure that you leave tonight and get to your destination by the morning hours .details on snowfall totals can be found at the bottom of this paragraph. Areas in the Red River valley during the morning into the afternoon hours however will be in the warm sector. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain mixture is possible during the morning and early afternoon hours. Models are having a hard time agreeing on the timing of the switch over to snowfall in this area earlier models were hinting at a chance at 1 to 5 hours of freezing rain over a majority of southcentral Manitoba newer models have been showing a smaller section of the SE getting impacted by sleet and freezing rain especially near the border. Its crucial to know that the setup for freezing rain and ice pellets with the rain and snow mix will depend on how far north that warmth can move in. HRRR has been consistent with it being over southeastern Manitoba until about 4pm CDT with a switch over to snow, other models show this period of freezing rain being brief before a switch to snow by lunch time. Bottom line there will be a risk across southeastern Manitoba east of the blizzard warnings for a risk of freezing rain, rain and snow mix. There will also be a risk for thunder to occur within the heavier batches of precipitation across the south albeit lower. Depending on how fast the low pressure system moves N will help determine our setup in the southeast, current models are indicating a swath Of five to ten millimeters of freezing rain just south of the border, which . The new model runs have been suggesting that heavier freezing rain will occur just south of the border however if that moves north at further than current models are suggesting areas of the Red River valley including the eastern parts of Manitoba may be getting into some moderate to heavy ice during the afternoon on Sunday. That much ice would be the equivalent enough to freeze power lines and knockout power.

In regards to snowfall totals (see above "Courtesy of Weatherlogics) much Of Western Manitoba appears to be getting the brunt of the system with areas West of Lake Manitoba getting 20 to 30 centimeters of snow that includes Dauphin, riding Mountain National Park, Alonsa, parts of the central interlakes and areas of extreme western Manitoba from Melita to Russell. Areas outside of that including the rest of the Interleakes extreme southwestern Manitoba areas along highway 10 S-N to Swan River including Western Lake Winnipeg to just west of Winnipeg can expect to get 15 to 20 centimeters of snow. Areas in that extreme outer section on the east side of the heavy snow all the way from Winnipeg towards eastern Manitoba down to Minot can expect to get ten to fifteen centimeters of snow. Areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba will only get between two to 10 centimeters of snow so it appears southeastern Manitoba will be getting primarily rain to freezing rain or rain snow mix . Temperatures on the day Sunday are going to be considerably different with areas of southeastern Manitoba in the low minus single digits or slightly above zero degrees Celsius depending on how far north that warmth moves. Temperatures along stream western Manitoba will be in the low minus teens areas to the east of that in the high minus single digits.

(Above:) Image of the incoming low pressure system that will bring strong north west and northerly winds as it impacts our area on sunday night possibly resulting in blizzard warnings. This system will be significant despite it moving into northern Manitoba during the night. 

Sunday Night: It appears that a majority of the snowfall including the low pressure system itself will move into northern Manitoba during the overnight. Strong northwest to westerly winds will envelope a large portion of the province and it may also bring with a blizzard conditions for majority of South Central Southeastern and southwestern Manitoba during the overnight. For those wondering there still may be some . Moderate heavy snow and fall especially in the central parts of the province before the low pressure system departs into northern Manitoba. Regardless blizzard conditions do look possible for all areas South of the Manitoba Lakes this is why environment Canada is suggesting a blizzard warning may be required during the night on Sunday into Monday morning travel is not advised unless you have to. Blizzard conditions may persist into Monday morning particularly for areas of the interlakes as the higher tighter isobars will be present there . As mentioned a majority of Southern Manitoba will be in a much colder air mass on Sunday night with, Temperatures in the low minus teens to mid minus teens and wind chill values in the upper minus teens and lower minus twenties. This is why it is crucial that if you are going to do highway traveling that you make sure to leave within the next 12 to 14 hours otherwise you'll be caught in the brunt of this storm and you may end up being stuck out in temperatures which are considerably dangerous if your car stops running.

The week ahead: Cool temperatures are forecast for the entire first part of the week with temperatures in the minus teens for daytime highs and overnight lows in the low minus 20s temperatures will vary however depending on where you are in the province especially if you're heading tire heading to places with higher snow packs temperatures will be on the colder side there. A moderating trend is likely as we head into the second half of the week.

 Please stay tuned to Manitoba Weather centre for any updates on this winter storm and weather alerts that get posted.

Keep in mind that this is not a professional weather forecast, but my own views from data analysis.

Fast Alberta Clipper expected to Impact Southern Manitoba, extreme cold weather to follow. Bundle Up!

Folks of Southern Manitoba get ready to experience another round of colder than average weather, an Alberta Clipper is poised to move through southern sections of Manitoba including central parts of the prairies which will bring a blast of winter weather before a transition over to much colder than average weather pattern for the week ahead . Find out what this will mean for us in the latest blog. 

Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a clipper system this evening into the overnight. Tonight a warm front will be moving through southern Manitoba along with it a batch of moderate heavy snow will accompany blowing snow moving through the south, with total snowfall amounts by morning accumulating to about five to 10 centimeters especially in the northern red river valley and the interlake regions, there will be a risk of freezing rain as well as the band moves through from west to east during the overnight. General amounts of two to four centimeters can be expected S of the Trans Canada Highway with new model runs showing the heavier snowfall amounts occurring north of highway 1. There will be a risk of freezing rain or freezing drizzle across the South given that temperatures are fairly close to the freezing mark. Overnight low temperatures for the southwest part of the province will rise to above zero by morning with majority of the rest of the South are seeing overnight low temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits generally from 0 to plus two degrees in southwestern Manitoba and areas of the SE seeing overnight low temperatures between minus two to minus seven degrees Celsius.

During the day on Monday a majority of the South will be in a southerly flow most models are diverging on the overall solution of a warmer air mass enveloping much of southern Manitoba including areas South of the Interlakes. There is a possibility that we could be seeing a swath of temperatures between five and 10 degrees celcius over the red River Valley areas to the east and to the West of the Red River Valley may see temperatures in the mid to high plus single digits. It also appears that the snow and blowing snow will clear the region by the morning hours with a mix of sun and cloud possible by the afternoon. However some of their models are continuing to show mainly cloudy skies during the afternoon so the high temperatures will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover can clear, that is why I'm going to side with a more moderate temperature outlook preferred to the warmer one so I would generally expect that we will not exceed 5 degrees for a majority of the area. 

(Above): A very very cold Arctic air mass is expected to invade Southern Manitoba with overnight low temperatures expected to drop well below normal with the majority of our regions seeing overnight lows in the low to mid minus 20s and areas of the southeast and the high minus teens. There will also be windchill values forecast to be in the low to mid minus 30 degrees celsius range areas north of the Trans Canada Highway can expect to be seeing the worst of the cold with those regions seeing windshield values in the upper minus 30s over the lakes specifically lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg you may be seeing wind chill values around minus 40 degrees Celsius. This is going to be a very cold quick shot of Siberian air which normally does not seem to happen during a El Nino winter. There still is some uncertainty of whether or not environment Canada is going to issue an extreme cold warning for this cold blast however the good news is that this does not appear to be a persistent cold Arctic air outbreak .

Tuesday: The extreme cold appears to likely stay in place with high temperatures on the day Tuesday only staying in the upper to mid minus teens. Areas north of highway 1 will see high temperature values in the low minus 20C range, with the combined windchill it''l feel Closer to the low minus thirties and high minus twenty degrees celsius range there are some areas may escape that and only see low minus twenty degrees Celsius wind chills during the afternoon on Tuesday. Tuesday night: it appears that the extreme cold will stick around with majority of much of southern Manitoba seeing overnight low temperatures in the upper minus 20's and low minus 30's, the colder values appear to be in the interlake regions, there will be widespread lows in the mid to upper minus 30's and low minus 40C range in the extreme southwest part of Manitoba. 

Wednesday: Much of southern Manitoba will be on the start of the reprieve on the day Wednesday with high temperatures finally getting into the well not as warm as it should be but still more typical of late January early February with values in the mid to upper minus teens in some areas of the southwest Parklands seeing high temperatures in the low minus twenties. There would still be a westerly wind which will help moderate the overall temperatures however I'm not seeing much of a change in the upper atmospheric pattern which will allow for that warmth to return. Overall windchill values in the low minus 20's are likely with colder than -25C values likely in the parklands of Manitoba. Overnight low values on Tuesday night will likely drop down into the low minus 20s in southeastern Manitoba and the upper minus teens in southwestern parts of Manitoba windshield values will be in the minus 30s with upper minus twenty wind chills in the southwest .

Second Half Of the Week: Much warmer air will likely infiltrate southern sections of Manitoba Thursday into Friday with a return of a westerly flow aloft overall highs will return back to where they have been for the last couple of weeks, with values in the low to mid minus single digits and some regions likely having a shot of seeing temperatures above 0C.  there are no signs that the cold weather we are getting this week will persist into the weekend. There is also strong confidence based on the ECMWF HI Res model of this warm weather pattern sticking around, other models have been unable to capture the warmth that we have been seeing over the last few months, its been one of those winters where Manitoba has been under the grips of a pretty strong El Nino weather pattern. Which is actually why I was going to quickly mention that, if it wasn't for El Nino the extreme cold occurring this week would have been a pretty regular ocassion across our region.