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| A significant storm system may rock southern Manitoba for the weekend, all put together by the area of low pressure you see on the map over NW Ontario and NW Minnesota. |
Tonight's weather should be fairly seasonal with overnight lows dipping past zero degrees and should stick in the minus single digits before warming by the morning hours. There will not be a lot to contend with tonight in terms of weather, we will see rain at times that will mix with snow through our late evening hours and after midnight. Tapering off around 2 to 3am. Cloudy skies will persist through the day on Tuesday keeping our temperatures in the single digits, with a changeover to northwesterly winds as opposed to Southerly winds. Wednesday will offer less cloud cover throughout a small part of the day giving temperatures a small time frame to warm up, but not by much (0 to 4C at most) still quite seasonal for this time of year. If there isn't that much sun throughout the day Wednesday then you can be sure cloud cover will hover over for the day.
The major attention for many this week will be the focus on the potential for a significant low pressure system this weekend. Weather Models including the (GFS, ECMWF, NAM, GGEM) are currently indicating that a potent Colorado low will impact southern Manitoba next weekend, with the potential for severe (heavy) snowfall, freezing rain and or strong winds. At this point it is hard to predict how exactly this system will affect us, other than to mention that it could cause various disruptions. Just as it is impossible to know the exact impacts of this storm this far in the future, it is also not possible to know for sure that this storm will impact us at all. Based on latest model runs and some analysing I have done, there is a reasonable chance that the storm may impact Southern Manitoba given the fact how some of the models have remained consistent on their output for the event. Then again we will not be confident for a few more days until models agree on a solution. In the meantime we all have some interesting weather to talk about until the weekend!
Feel Free to follow updates on Rob's Blog (Weather Information) and Spotwx (to view and see what models agree on) Updates will be given in the comments section of this post as well, when I have the time.
Looking like the snowstorm for the weekend is going to be significant, models agree on anywhere from 15 to 30cm in the Red River Valley and Southeast Manitoba including Winnipeg. There will be less snow as you head West. Snow still will be present as you heade West mainly before Saturday morning.
ReplyDeleteDetails From Ec`s latest special weather statement
WOCN11 CWWG 071453
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 8:53 AM CST
Wednesday 7 November 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Winnipeg
=new= Steinbach - St. Adolphe - Dominion City - Vita - Richer
=new= Selkirk - Gimli - Stonewall - Woodlands - Eriksdale
=new= Dugald - Beausejour - Grand Beach
=new= Portage la Prairie - Headingley - Brunkild - Carman
=new= Morden - Winkler - Altona - Emerson - Morris
=new= Bissett - Nopiming Provincial Park - Pine Falls
=new= Whiteshell - Lac du Bonnet - Pinawa
=new= Sprague - Northwest Angle Provincial Forest
=new= Brandon - Carberry - Treherne
=new= Dauphin - Roblin - Winnipegosis
=new= Minnedosa - Neepawa - Russell - Riding Mountain National Park
=new= Killarney - Pilot Mound - Manitou
=new= Melita - Boissevain - Turtle Mountain Provincial Park
=new= Virden - Souris
=new= Arborg - Hecla - Fisher River - Gypsumville - Ashern.
Significant snowfall possible Saturday.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A storm system developing over the central American Rockies Thursday
is forecast to spread an area of snow over Southern Manitoba
Saturday. Snow may become heavy at times Saturday with increasing
north winds. At this time it appears the heaviest snow with this
system will fall over the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba.
Watches and warnings may be required for this system later in the
week so the public is advised to monitor future forecasts as this
winter storm system approaches.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
And The Forecast discussion from CYWG
MAIN STORM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED OVER CENTRAL US ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.. SPREADING SNOW NWD TOWARDS INTL BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPCL WX STATEMENT ISSUED FOR SRN SK/AB AS A HEADS UP TO SITUATION BEFORE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. NOTE THAT WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN OUT OVER NRN MT TO CANADIAN BORDER FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW.
Weather Blog Update will be made hopefully around 9pm, if not I will have one ready on Thursday night detailing the snow for the weekend. I will try and get some comments going in the meantime, with details ahead of the next post. Have a great night everyone!
ReplyDeleteSorry been busy over the past few hours, the latest information coming in mentions there is a 70 to 90% chance of getting a snowstorm this weekend in Southern Manitoba. I have been monitoring discussions and model output, so at this point the storm track is expected to be from Colorado Tonight, East and Northeast towards Nebraska and into Iowa. When the storm is expected to be at it's worst it will be somewhere near Northeast ND into NW Minnesota. It will be further East from Duluth.
ReplyDeleteNow snowfall amounts will be mentioned in the new post, just a bit of a hint various models are showing anywhere from 7 to near 40cm of snow in the Red River Valley.As a result Env.Canada has issued snowfall warnings across a vast region of Southern Manitoba, here is there statement for Winnipeg.....
Warnings
City of Winnipeg
3:02 PM CST Thursday 08 November 2012
Snowfall warning for
City of Winnipeg issued
Major snowstorm this weekend.
A Colorado low is poised to affect Southern Manitoba, including the City of Winnipeg, this weekend.
Low pressure is gathering over the Rocky Mountains this afternoon, as moisture gets drawn northward ahead of it and cold air drops south of the 49th parallel. This combination will set up a major snowstorm for Southern Manitoba.
Snow, heavy at times, will begin Friday afternoon over southwest portions of the province and will steadily spread eastward throughout the night. By Saturday morning, most of the warning areas will see falling snow, which will be heaviest during the day Saturday.
Total snowfall amounts from this snowstorm are expected in the 15 to 25 cm range, although some pockets of up to 30 cm are possible, especially near the Turtle Mountains and east of Riding mountain National Park.
Although winds won'T be particularly strong, the combination of heavy snowfall and winds in the 30 km/h range will likely produce near-zero visibility at times. Motorists should be prepared for very poor driving conditions across much of Southern Manitoba on Saturday.
The heavy snow will finally taper off Saturday night, although some light snow may linger over the eastern half of the province on Sunday.
Blog Post Coming soon!