Stormy Saturday On Tap, But How Much Snow Are We Really Going To Get?

You may end up seeing scenes like this on the weekend, not pretty. Agree?

As was said over the past couple of days there would be a chance for a snowstorm, and now its looking more likely that we will get a significant snowfall which will impact Southern Manitoba through the weekend. This will be the seasons first widespread snowfall for the Red River Valley and much of Southern Manitoba. As a result the trustworthy Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg (aka Environment Canada) issued a Snowfall Warning for much of Southern Manitoba including Winnipeg. They are highlighting the potential of 15 to 25cm and 30+ cm of snow Friday into Sunday for most places. According to Rob Author of Rob's Blog "there remains some uncertainty about how much snow will fall in any one location (including Winnipeg), there are a few things that are looking more likely about this impending snowfall event..

 Storm track: Low will be tracking towards Duluth (see image above). That increases odds of heavier snow over SE MB and less snow towards the SK border
- Precip Phase: Will be an all snow event. With the above storm track, likelihood of mixed precipitation (freezing rain/ice pellets) is reduced over much of southern MB
- Timing: Snow will be spreading in from the southwest late Friday, persisting through Saturday and Saturday night, then gradually pulling off Sunday. Snow expected to develop in Winnipeg Friday night (midnight or pre-dawn hours Saturday)` 





GEM-GLB Predicting 5 to 15cm of Snowfall (less likely)

The question that everyone wants to know is How much we are going to get in Winnipeg. Models have almost come to an agreement and the information I have been getting is pointing towards a total snowfall amount of 25cm from Friday Night into Sunday for Winnipeg. Model estimates for Winnipeg are hinting at a minimum of 12cm to a maximum of 32cm, overall I would discount the smallest amounts considering the model on the lower end is going towards a more non colorado type low, whereas the other models agree on a colorado low which is the case for the storm. Overall amounts will once again be in the 15 to 25cm range for Winnipeg and likely higher if we get into several heavy snowbands, which could get our totals up past the 30cm mark. As for the rest of southern Manitoba there will be the potential for a wide swath of 15 to 25cm with locally 30+cm over areas East of riding Mountain National Park and near Turtle Mountain regions that include Killarney, Boissevain and Deloraine. There could also be a few locales in regions of Western Manitoba, Red River Valley Winnipeg and Eastern Manitoba that might see over 25 or 30cm of snow when under heavy moisture.







NAM model predicting 15cm green to 35cm in red.
(More Likely)



Regardless of the total amount that falls, people should be prepared for a period of snowy weather over Southern parts of Manitoba beginning Friday night into Saturday and tapering off Sunday. Road and highway conditions will deteroiate as the storm progresses, especially Saturday when most of the snow is expected over Southern Manitoba. Be prepared for much slower travel times and possible road closures. Northerly winds of 30 to 50 kmh or more will accompany the storm with reduced and low visibility at times in snow and blowing snow. Improving and better conditions are expected Sunday as the storm moves off. Please note that this storm will also be affecting North Dakota, NW Minnesota and NW Ontario, keep in mind if you have travel plans in those places this weekend.