Manitoba Winter At It's Finest! enjoy it while it Continues!

Hello everyone, I am back after a long and tiring summer and fall. I have been dealing with tough times, but am getting back on my feet. I am happy to say that how tough everything has been I love getting back to blogging. As you may know there has been extreme cold the past couple of days here in the region, high pressure being the culprit as air streams south out of the arctic. Looking at all our temperatures for the day ahead they should be warmer than it has been the past few days high's should be in the low minus double digits in and around -12C to -14C under mixed skies and fairly cloudy conditions with a chance of flurries. The weather will get colder once we come into the evening timeframe with lows approaching the minus 20C range overnight. Temperatures for the day on Thursday, with new years coming around the corner will stick around -10 to -15C for daytime highs, overnight lows will drop into the minus 20's. For Friday an approaching low pressure system will get our daytime highs a bit warmer into the -10 to -15C range. 

Arctic Air Returns



NAEFS (8-14 Day Outlook) Below Normal Temperatures Expected

Looking out into our first weekend of new years arctic air will continue to stream further south from high pressure systems. Providing that our temperatures will drop into the minus 20's for daytime high's and mid minus 30's for overnight lows. Our windchill values may exceed minus 40 with the outflow of arctic air. The below seasonal temperatures look to continue until at least the 15th of January. It may go past that date though. Any low pressure system going into our area will likely increase our temperatures and help us warm a little bit, but not for long. The cold looks like it is going to stick around, for quite some time. Welcome to Manitoba Winter at It's Finest!

Happy Holiday's, Posts Return on December 27th, 2014!

Happy Holidays everyone and Merry Christmas! Hope you have a wonderful holiday season! I know my posts have not been updated since July of 2014 but they shall be returning with more consistency now that I am not as busy as I was in the summer. Some changes will be made to the blog itself as well. Good changes, though :) I might also work on developing a weather app for users in the province or for whoever wants weather information about happenings in Manitoba. Any suggestions for new features on the blog or weather apps please let me know thanks. I hope we get some nice weather as we go into the new year! Cheers!

Sincerely, Michael McGregor of SouthMBWeather 

Long awaited blog post on the way soon!

After months and months of no information on this blog whatsoever there will be a high amount of informative, accurate and detailed weather information on our happenings of weather in the province, new post coming Saturday!

Severe Weather Returns Today

The heat and humidity has finally cranked back up as a return of guf moisture enters the province, not only making it feel muggy but it will also aid in some potent thunderstorms as we go into the rest of the day today. Get Ready to batten down the hatches.

Today will be one of those days where the sun will be around and some clouds will be around at higher levels but our temperatures still will be able to reach the high 20's that will allow for it feel more humid out there more like the mid to high 30's. This will just create more heat and humidity for this storm system to work with, and that means the indicies for storms might be higher. 

As the frontal system encounters the heat and humidity there will be thunderstorm development, how bad will it be exactly? Taking into account the heat humidity that is in place there will be abundant moisture to work with, fairly high shear and CAPE Values will exceed 2,000 J/Kg and LI's of -4 to -8C capping will inhibit storms until late afternoon but as a result there might be an explosion of thunderstorms later on by 4pm as the front overcomes the capping in place. The Red River Valley will be at risk through the evening period.

Thunderstorm outlook (Slight Risk of Severe for the RRV including Winnipeg) Valid Until 11pm

As the front arrives storms will develop and quickly turn into supercells offering the threat for tornadoes as they enter the western parts of the red river valley and the interlakes. The storms that do develop will quickly increase in coverage and merge into a line of severe thunderstorms with bowing segments the risk will be there for damaging winds and large hail as they pass over, don't forget the lightning risk these storms can pose so be sure to stay indoors. Storms will exit Manitoba by evening heading into northwestern Ontario by 9pm or so. The likelihood of severe weather is imminent or will occur in the next little while. Please follow Environment Canada for the latest on the severe weather warnings. 

For Saturday much better weather conditions will be in place as we get under a ridge of high pressure but the temperatures may not be as warm with us only getting into the mid 20's

Sunday will be another day of thunderstorms as a surface trough works its way east through the day high temps once again trying to surpass 30C, might be another day of severe weather. I'll have more details in the comments and Twitter Saturday Night. 

Stay safe this evening remember to use the #MBstorm hashtag when tweeting photos of the storms this evening. My account for twitter is @SouthMBWeather, feel free to send me photo's I'll retweet. I might post a few of my own as well.

Heat and severe weather returns..

After what was a cool start to the week the heat returns but not for long as a northwestern flow starts taking shape by mid week next week. Until then you have the chance to get out and enjoy what will be a beautiful end to our week and start off to our weekend.

Tomorrow will be the start off to our heat as a area of low pressure from areas of northern Saskatchewan drags a warm front into southern manitoba ahead of it. This will allow for temperatures to reach the mid to high 20's with a surge of humidity getting humidex's values closer to 35 or 36C. Clouds will increase in the afternoon for areas of the RRV however there appears to be unsettled weather conditions that will present themselves in areas of western manitoba in the afternoon and evening. The potential will exist for thunderstorms some severe in the areas mentioned thanks in response to a cold front entering the region.  Along this front expect storms to develop and persist as they move east however there still is some uncertainty as to how far south things will develop the main risk appears to be north of the trans Canada but could be further south. As this front moves east expect severe weather to continue in the interlakes or the RRV and into areas of eastern manitoba overnight. All modes of severe weather will be possible.

As we go into Friday it looks like We could be in for a better day weather wise an area of high pressure will build in allowing for nicer conditions to exist possibility of high temps getting above normal to near 26C once again.

Cooler conditions will come in by mid week next week after the weekend below normal temperatures are forecast to come in as another ridge develops out in areas of British Columbia allowing for a trough of low pressure to dwindle through eastern Canada and areas of the eastern prairies. This means temperatures of 15 to 24C are possible in southern manitoba through the 6 to 10 day period.

Hot and Humid Weekend Ahead!

The weather has already shown off that it can get hot just yesterday (Friday) we experienced high temperatures right in and around the 25 to 30C in many areas of the south. Some severe weather also occurred just south of Winnipeg producing quarter sized hail and some intense wind gusts up to 80km/h in areas just south of Steinbach towards Emerson and along highway 75. Today was just a preview of what's ahead for the weekend get ready,the heat, humidity and thunderstorms are going to make a return.

Dewpoints above 20C will make
it feel tropical out, enjoy it! 

Severe Weather Saturday

Saturday will start off humid and quite warm for most, our high temperatures will quickly budge up into the high twenties to low 30's. Factoring in the dewpoints being in the low to mid 20's we will be dealing with a very humid airmass and it will feel oppressive heat will be present in a huge way as humidex's surpass 40C. As a result of the heat and humidity our atmosphere will become extremely unstable based on various models meaning there will be a risk for severe weather throughout the day. Here is how it could play out, a frontal system is expected to slide through southern manitoba during the morning sparking off showers and thunderstorms in areas just to the east of Winnipeg however this will not be the main story for tomorrow's severe weather. Once this systems clears out sunny skies will overtake but the next threat will come in the evening as storms possibly form in Southeast Sask/Southwest Manitoba and merge into a line of storms some possibly severe what I call a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). The line will likely progress eastwards  through areas of southern manitoba through the evening and overnight, likely reaching the RRV and Winnipeg in the late evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible along with intense to frequent lightning. I will post details in the thunder storm outlook center, and will update the comments as needed to provide information on the evolving situation.

Storms would clear overnight and then there will again be a potential for storms on Sunday.

Thundery Sunday

Sunday looks like it will be a quieter day weather wise and as a result there won't be severe storms but still a chance for showers and non severe thunderstorms as a cold front slumps southwards our high temperatures will be in the mid to high 20's. 

Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

Much nicer weather will return to start our week however there will be multiple storm chances as they return on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. High's still in the mid to high 20's.

Summer Weather Finally Returns!

A ridge of high pressure staying in the province for the next day or two will allow for some dry weather to linger around to help us dry out. After our last wind and rainstorm hit the province that sure did a number on all of us we now are welcomed with a return to the summer heat making our forecast look much better than it has been as of late, giving us the chance to get out and take in what summer has to offer.

The dry weather can't make a return soon enough since the flooding in the southwestern part of the province continues to worsen, several communities have declared a state of emergency and this weather is perfect for the recovery efforts. 

Today will offer beautiful conditions with sunshine and light winds out of the southwest along with temperatures right around normal, anywhere from 25 degrees in the south central part of the province to the 23C and 24C range in the southwest. Our low's will be a different story though as they drop to around or just slightly above the 10C mark.

Friday will be a much warmer day in the south as high temperatures sneak up in and around the 28-29C for much of the region as a warm front slides into the area, there also appears to be a warm front sliding into the area which will offer a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Our overnight lows will only slide down into the 18C range in the RRV while lows of 16C in the southwest can be expected. 


Our true summer weather comes around on the weekend (only one way to describe it hot and humid) a hot and humid airmass will build into areas of southern Manitoba through the day Saturday as dewpoint's rise into the mid 20's our high temperatures of around to slightly above 30 degrees will feel closer to the high 30's to low 40's. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible given the fact there will be systems cascading through the area adding in the fact how hot and humid that it will feel. There is always a chance for that type of weather with such high heat and humidity. Details on the severe weather risk will be posted in tomorrow's post as things still remain quite uncertain over the weekend.


Get out and enjoy this real summer weather as we finally get a chance to dry out!

Rainfall Storm Summary; Severe Weather Ahead

What a rainfall we had this weekend, it was the first major rainfall seen in Manitoba since may of 2010 and we sure did pick up a lot areas in the red river valley were hardest hit along with areas just east of Winnipeg. Beausejour picked up a whopping 90mm of rain while Lockport got in at 120mm of rain thanks to a training area of thunderstorms, in comparison areas of Silver Heights in my region of Winnipeg picked up 87mm of rain. Southwest Manitoba was quite lucky where they only picked up at most 15mm of rain. As this Colorado  system came in it was the wettest seen on June 15th since 1928 when we only picked up 15mm of rain here in Winnipeg. Most amount of rainfall I have seen in my lifetime living in my neighburhood. Those Mosquito's  are definitely going to be out on a rampage in the next few weeks after the rain we recieved and what is still to come.

Below is a list of the rainfall recieved at each location: Via @WeatherInThePeg

Storms on The Way

After our weekend of rainfall and nice weather that we had to start the week our weather will begin to become unsettled as we work our way into the next few days as a few weather systems will march across our region giving the chance for showers and thunderstorms, the trough that is currently in place in southern manitoba could contribute to the development of showers and thunderstorms this evening in areas of southern manitoba, lifting eastwards as the night progresses.  As a result expect heavy rainfall in southern manitoba with as much as 70mm possible in Brandon and the parklands.

By about midnight all shower activity should end, however another system looks like it will come in the day tomorrow as a result there will be the chances for showers and possibly thundershowers as the storm system slides south from the interlakes. Our temperatures should remain on the cool side at around the mid 20's, it will get much nicer come the overnight hours in the south. 

How is the weekend looking?

At the moment there appears to be a system arriving into Manitoba from Saskatchewan that will either setup further west or further to the east on Saturday, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms come late afternoon or evening depending on where it sets up and cloudcover. There could be severe weather in the province either west or east of Winnipeg  Different story if this system encounters cooler air and cloud, there would be a likelihood of mainly showers for the majority. 
High's will be in the high 20's and humidex levels near 30C, though cooler if we get under cloudcover. 

Regardless, Models are having a tough time resolving the strength and location of this system so as it changes feel free to follow the updates in the comments section below.      

Sunday overall looks like it could be a much better day weatherwise with high temperatures soaring into the high 20's along with lots of sunshine, once our system clears out. Improving weather come next week, here in Southern areas of the province. Good to hear after how horrible and gloomy has been.  

Feel Free to take a look and see what is ahead at my forecast page, enjoy the rest of your week and the weekend ahead!

Another Weekend Rainfall and Cool start to the week

Our weekend has already been a rainy one with thunderstorms off and on already 20 to 30mm has fallen with this system in Southern Manitoba, areas already soaked by rainfall will also experience another round as another wave of rainfall spreads north into Southern Manitoba from North Dakota. 

Rainfall amounts through the end of the weekend

We have already seen one round of showers move through the Winnipeg area ahead of the next batch of showers and storms the next round are the ones that could be quite heavy at times amounting to nearly 30mm. Rain will persist as this system moves through tonight and tomorrow, there will be a chance of storms in the day tomorrow along with rainshowers likelihood of picking up another 10mm for the majority of the south. Temperatures will stay near or slightly above 15C for highs. 

This system will not only slide out of the province by evening but it will leave behind cloudy conditions to start your Monday. Monday will start off Cloudy but conditions look like they will clear out by late morning leaving behind sunny condition's and based off the GFS we should be dealing with high's from 20 to 25C along the USA border and 15 to 20C a little further north of the TransCanada Highway. 


As we head into Tuesday there will be a chance for showers with little instability in place they shouldn't last long, however we still manage to reach the high teens. Wednesday should be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 20's with lots of sunshine still, chances of precipitation from showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday late in the day (instability levels in the picture on the right side).



Long Range
Models are hinting at more seasonable temperatures for late week into the weekend, closer to or above the 25C mark. But I'll keep you posted on any changes as this is a far ways off yet. Also Severe Weather season is also around the corner so it wont be long until we see the type of weather us storm lovers enjoy.

Week of Sunshine and Thunderstorms

After what was a stormy weekend here in Winnipeg and southern Manitoba, we will be experiencing a few days where the weather will be wet and stormy in places as we have a couple of shortwaves that will move through. Although it will be stormy a few of our days will be beautiful and we'll have the chance to get out and enjoy it. 

Storms look Possible Tuesday

Going into your day Tuesday it is looking like it is going to be a beautiful day temperatures could exceed 20C and arrive in the mid 20's with dew points close behind because of that we could have dew points of 15 to 19C giving high levels of humidity. 

A frontal system could go through areas of southern Manitoba tomorrow afternoon and given how humid it could be we are looking at thunderstorm development. A Weather Moment mentioned that at the low end we could see small hail and gusty winds or strong to severe storms with a tornado threat and potential damaging storms at the high end. Threat should ease by the evening I will provide updates on Twitter as well as the blog. 

Storms also look likely on Wednesday but not as high as tuesdays chances, highs of 25 to 29C Wednesday.


The long range outlook looks like we could be in for some severe weather this Thursday or Friday as another system comes in from the states, all models have had this in their outlook for the past 4 days and they still yet have to resolve the timing and features as it is important in determining when and where the storms or severe weather will occur. Best bet is Southwest MB first then into the Red River Valley Basin and Eastern Manitoba. Till then temperatures through until June look great and our weather might stay the same in terms of storms but great temperatures right in and around seasonal.

Summer Returns But With Storms

Finally the first hot couple of days are on the way as the warmth returns into SouthMB associated with a airmass from the Gulf of Mexico, however it comes with a price thunderstorms are likely and some could be severe as we go into the weekend. 

For the day ahead there will be a chance of showers and storms out in southwestern areas of southern manitoba and the parklands but they will be weak if and when they form meaning non severe but a few could be stronger. Otherwise clear and sunny skies can be expected with high temperatures in the mid to high 20's but you will be happy to hear that our weather will even be hotter Saturday. 

As for Saturday things get a bit unsettled with our temperatures approaching 30C the heat and humidity will create perfect brewing conditions for thunderstorms all across southern Manitoba some could be severe but given that shear will be present but not high enough storms won't be tornadic but nonetheless they will be elevated. As a result large hail and damaging winds along with heavy rainfall will be likely.The threat will ease by late evening but really be high in the evening, humid conditions in the mid 30's to high 30's will be present Saturday. 

Sunday will be a different story in southern Manitoba a cold front will slice through areas of southern manitoba during the morning sunday and leave behind it instability for storms during the rest of the day Sunday meaning fairly good chances for severe weather on Sunday. I'm not sure about the dynamics but the rest of the day looks good once storms clear by evening. Better weather returns for the week, however things are looking more stormy come the tuesday and wednesday timeframe. Heat continues as we go through the rest of the month although a little cooler nowhere near below normal.

Warming Weather On The Way (Pictures of the system will be added on Sunday

After what has been a difficult past three months our weather will finally be taking a turn for the better but not before we undergo stormy condition's for the end of Victoria Day Weekend in what seems like a normal tradition for the province. An area of low pressure from the west coast of the united states will make it's way into southern Manitoba by
late Sunday through Tuesday, pumping  rich moisture from the united states out ahead of it allowing for shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday in the west and Monday as well Tuesday for the eastern part of the south. CAPE and LI's will be high enough for storms to be non severe with a slight chance of a few becoming severe on Monday/Tuesday, however tornadoes DO NOT look likely. Now most of the rainfall we get will be driven convectively so there could be higher amounts in places of the Red River Valley up where we could see 15mm. Rain should clear out of the province by late Tuesday, leaving behind cooler temperatures but not too bad, we should recover to near and above seasonal values as we get closer to the mid to late week time frame. Long term data continues to show a chance where we could get to and stay above seasonal values into June meaning mid to high 20C temps, but it remains to be seen after such a bad year we experienced for six months with our horrible winter. Let's hope it gets better, we need it too!

Hope you enjoy your holiday weekend everyone!

More of the same "cold".

I am not going to write much given the fact that we will be expereiencing the same cold weather as we have been for the first half of the month and January, our temperatures will stay in the mid to high minus teens through the daytime and the mid minus 20's overnight with windchills in the mid minus 30's. Cloudcover will manage to sneak in every once and a while on a few of our days this week allowing for the temperatures to stay comfy, the cold weather will hang around until mid Feb before we start warming a bit.

Slow Decent Back To Winter

After our hit of hazardous winter weather last night it will be a tough descent, enjoy this quick warmup it won`t last long as another arctic cold front is on the way. A parade of systems will follow in the wake of this cold front.

Goodbye To the warmth

Our arctic cold front will be the culprit for dropping our temperatures from the mid minus single digits to the mid minus teens, before that we will see a switchover to snow as the arctic front starts working it`s way southwards general accumulations of 2 to 4cm can be expected. There will not be a concern for any hazardous weather such as what was the case yesterday. once the snow clears out the winds will start increasing from the NW and of course our temperatures will begin dropping to the mid minus 20`s, not even close to what the weather will be like for the weekend. Another post will be made tomorrow on our weekend. Have a good day!

Nasty Alberta Clipper To Usher In Another Brutal Coldsnap

Snow has been the story today for much of Southern Manitoba as an Alberta Clipper entered the region, even though our temperatures warmed up today we will be getting a reinforcing shot of cold air as the system moves off. This shot of cold air will likely be one of the most unpleasant that we have seen this winter, though it won't be the coldest temperature wise it'll be paired with a biting wind that will make it feel unpleasant.

Blizzard In The Red River Valley 

With the storm's passing in the next few hours winds out of the northwest will increase substantially, this will cause condition's to deteriorate fairly fast with winds in the range of 30 to 40 km/h with gusts in excess of 60 to 70 km/h. This combined with freshly fallen snow will create blowing snow through much of the red river valley from now through to early morning, creating near zero visibilities at times. The worst of the conditions look to take place in the southern red river valley where gusts of 70 km/h are possible in the region, as a result blizzard conditions are likely. Places under the warning are Morden, Winkler, Altona, Emerson, Morris, Steinbach, Ste Adolphe, Dominion City, Vita and Richer. Be sure to adjust accordingly to road condition's and make sure you have an emergency road kit handy if you are heading out on highway's #75S, #59S, and #2-W tonight. 

   

Brutal Cold For The Weekend 

After the system clears our region a blast of arctic air will dive south,it be the most brutal cold we have seen this winter. Although the temperatures will not be as cold as last time it is going to be the wind that is the case, which will make it feel significantly colder. Temperatures will drop (from whatever they are in the morning) throughout the day Saturday as the cold sinks southwards, the coldest of the cold will occur on Saturday overnight where temperatures will approach the minus 30s with the wind it will feel like the minus 40s. Sunday will be a recovery day as we see temperatures rise along with a bit of cloud pushing into the region, winds will be out of the west from 10 to 20km/h. Much colder again overnight into Monday.

Winter 2013/2014 Continues, I'm hoping that it warms up soon because this cold is getting old!