Rain and Thunderstorms on the way with significant rainfall for most

Rain and embedded thunderstorms expected to move in within the next few hours, current KTIV radar image at 12:59am Tuesday

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible overnight into Tuesday morning with 30 to 75mm expected, locally higher amounts are possible. Image from KTIV Interactive Futurecast.

Tonight an area of low pressure will swing in from the south bringing a large area of rainfall into the province, thunderstorms have already developed and persisted in southern and central north dakota for the past few hours. This area of rainfall and embedded thunderstorms will evolve and develop northwards overnight into tomorrow morning covering all of southern Manitoba. Rainfall amounts could be as much as 10 to 30mm in the Red River Valley and 70mm in the southwest. For those who are affected by thunderstorms mostly in the overnight and morning hours you could pick up higher amounts. 

A thunderstorm threat exists Tuesda afternoon and evening

As we get into the morning hours the rain and thunderstorms will clear out of the Red  River Valley, leaving behind a dry slot where the sun should come out. With daytime heating there should be increased chances for showers and non severe thunderstorms to develop especially in the evening hours along the cold front. However in the southwest rain is expected to continue to fall under the stubborn occluded front where 70mm is expected by the end of the day. A rainfall warning is in place for the southwestern portion of the province read here... http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb5 Temperatures should be near 20C in Winnipeg and in the mid to high teens for most of the province. Cooler and rainer conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday

Long Range:
Warmer weather is expected to arrive by midweek with a increased chance of more showers and storms for the end of the week as another couple of low pressure systems move into the area. As we are entering June on Wednesday I expect the real heat and humidity to start pumping in a week or two and severe weather may start becoming a common occurrence here in a very short while. You know being in Manitoba things can change quite quickly.

Thunderstorms likely this evening and overnight. Details.

A potential for thunderstorms exists tonight in areas of the Red River Valley and southeast portions in southern Manitoba.

Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in North Dakota and move north either into the Red River Valley or southeast Manitoba later this evening.

Severe thunderstorms possible south of the border this evening into overnight.

Temperatures in the mid to high 20's are mild and ripe enough for storm development this evening, however they will cool down with the passage of a trough tonight into the mid to high teens. An area of low pressure approaching from the southwest tonight will create a area of ample moisture and high energy levels, CAPE\s generally in the 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg range and Lifted indicies in the -3 to -6 range.  As the trough ejects into the area this evening thunderstorms are expected to fire along that feature sometime this evening in central North Dakota and are expected to strengthen and move northeastwards or eastwards depending on the atmospheric flow, entering southern Manitoba sometime around 11pm or later. Where they develop and what direction they head will depend on what areas will recieve rain tonight, if they develop a little further east than expected they will likely hit southeastern Manitoba, if they develop in central North Dakota or even a bit further west they could enter the Red River Valley areas and move northeast into the cottage country and Bissett areas. Scenario number 2 is more likely at the moment, but the timing of the development of storms and where they fire will be crucial in telling where they end up. A smaller chance for showers and storms exist in the southwest portion of the province this evening to near midnight then the threat will ease with clearer skies. However storms will not be severe when they enter southern Manitoba, they will likely be non severe to strong, rainfall amounts in storms are forecast to be in the 40mm range as per Environment Canada. Threats will be moderate to heavy rainfall, small hail, some moderate wind gusts, and frequent to occasional lightning. Thunderstorms are expected to clear late overnight and leave behind the odd shower or thunderstorm by morning, with sunnier skies on Monday.

Beautiful end to the week stormy weekend ahead (with some humor added).

The rest of the week and part of our weekend will be a warm delightful and sunny one as a ridge of high pressure moves over the area however a threat for showers and thunderstorms will arrive at the end of the long weekend.

Summerlike temperatures expected for the day on Saturday, warm and dry as well.

Looking ahead to your day today expect sunny beautiful sunny dry conditions and temperatures in the mid to high 20's a few places may hit 30 degrees with winds out of the south fairly light. A high of 25C in Winnipeg on Friday. Humidity will be fairly low only in the 20 to 30% range, though it should make for a fairly nice day to get out and get exercise or do outdoor activities. Overnight lows will be in the 10 to 15C range, there will be an increased humidity overnight as well.

 http://www.roadsideamerica.com/blog/behold-the-tumbleweed/

That is actually a tumbleweed statue in Chandler,AZ go figure

Saturday will be a beautiful day too with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 20's with a few places once again hitting 30C but that will be fairly hard to reach (places in Saskatchewan may hit 30C on Saturday). A high of 26C in Winnipeg for Saturday. Humidity will be a bit higher around 40%, but still nowhere near what you would call humid. Winds will be light & near 20 to 30km/h out of the south once again. At least it won't be as what you would call a heatblizzard (70km/h winds plus) with a mexican singing jingle bells jingle bell ouch ouch ouch is the heat, oh what fun it is to ride in a texan tumbleweed sleigh. thank goodness we don't have those or tumbleweed. There is actually a tumbleweed statue somewhere in the world that would be a sight to see. As we get into Saturday night things get interesting, the humidity starts increasing as well with dewpoints nudging into the 10 to 15C range where our overnight lows sit in that range. All as the system approaches from the west.

System providing severe weather potential on Sunday, drawing in warm moist air from the south.

 

Higher dewpoints from the gulf of Mexico, means more humidity on the evening Sunday providing storm potential with a low pressure system.

Severe Weather Sunday????
Sunday is a interesting day weatherwise a cold front approaching from the west will move into the province encountering the hot humid conditions that could very well be in place. Temperatures will either be in the low to mid 20's or mid to high 20's with increasing cloud during the day and humidity levels quite higher than compared to other days, creating a setup for thunderstorms once the front goes through. Here is a look at the ingredients we have on Sunday using Brad V's MIST Idea. Moisture, Instabilty, Shear and Trigger.

M-No lack of moisture humidity levels in the 50 to 60% range or less, dewpoints in the 15 to 20C range.
I- Lots of instability is present on the day Sunday, CAPE is 1,000 in the south with a small portion of 2,500 J/kg in the riding mountains. LI is -4 to -6, TT is 52.72, SWEAT is 367.24, Bulk Richardson number is 43.46 Energy Index is -3.39.
S- There appears to be enough shear to keep storms organized enough for supercells I suppose, Helicity is 175, Bulk Shear is 21.20. knots Ideally you need higher shear to support more supercell potential.
T- The cold front will be our trigger for the day on Sunday, timing is crucial to pinpoint thunderstorm threat timing.

Look at the indicies I used (Scroll down to the bottom on the page of the second link for information on the index's and what they mean... http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/ 
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

What can we expect?

I spoke with CBC Meteorologist John Sauder yesterday and he says the timing of the front is crucial to deciding thunderstorm potential on the day Sunday. It looks like at the moment the frontal system will push into southwestern Manitoba in the early afternoon hours and should start to generate scattered thunderstorms mid to late afternoon in the southwestern part of the province with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms. You better get your hailguard out and start ducking for cover, if we were made of stone then we could start breaking the ice, get it breaking the ice? Literally though the threats will be large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy downpours and frequent lightning, by evening it should form into a line of storms that will move east late evening and overnight. Given the indicies after the LI (which are based at my place in Winnipeg) we should see showers and thunderstorms some severe or they may be severe thunderstorms along with the possibility of supercells. There once again is the risk for large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. The NAM is showing a smidgen of a chance of weak tornadoes in the Red River Valley, but I really doubt that will be even likely here Sunday. Once the front goes through expect a lingering chance for showers overnight Sunday into Monday morning with the odd thunderstorm. Overnight lows on Sunday will drop into the mid teens with relatively high humidity.

Look Ahead to Next Week.
Monday will see a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the afternoon, though nothing like it was on Sunday. As we get into the start of the week a southwestern flow will dominate the area bringing in a continued chance for showers with a possible chance of thunderstorms on a few days of the week, nothing severe though. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 20's which is slightly above normal for this time of year. Enjoy!

I will be sure to update you all on the thunderstorm threat that is arriving on Sunday on Twitter and in the comments section of this blog.

Warmer and more humid weather on the way

The past weekend was cooler than average and it was a brutal reality check, but things this week are looking brighter and warmer than what it has been as the ridge of high pressure out west moves in and brings us the spring like warmth. 

  The next few days will feature warmer weather and increasing humidity the day Tuesday will feature high temperatures in the low 20's with sunshine. Winnipeg should be around 24C all as the ridge of high pressure sits over our area from the south. Wednesday will be a different story there will be a chance of showers but very slim at best and there could be some cloudcover depending on how much we get there could be cooler temperatures. However if there is none then our temperatures will be able to get to about twenty five to twenty seven degrees. 

Long Range: Increasingly Warm and humid with thunderstorm chances


   The longer range appears to be fairly interesting, there is a good chance of increasing humidity, higher dewpoints, and warmer temperatures. Altogether that will mean hot and humid conditions with humidex values possibly above 30C. A notable feature for the long range there appears to be a chance for thunderstorms on the May Long weekend, as a trough of low pressure moves into the increasingly hot and humid airmass. Points are for a possible severe weather event of some kind but it is too early to fine tune the details. It is something I will monitor over the coming days and update you on Twitter and on here with a new blog post on Wednesday evening and Friday Morning.

Warm Dry Weather returns, Possible thunderstorms or severe thunderstorms for the end of the week

The warm dry weather has returned and is giving southern Manitoba a taste of summer like temperatures. Over the coming days our temperatures will resemble that of June and July without the high humidity levels although some still in place. The next few days will be perfect to get outside and enjoy either bike riding or even BBqing.

Warmest day of the week on Thursday and Friday inbetween 20 and 30C, even slightly above 30C.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the week into the weekend where we reach the high 20's., high temperatures on the day on Tuesday will be a fairly warm one with high temperatures inbetween fifteen and twenty degrees. About 17C for Winnipeg Tuesday and 19C for Brandon. Tuesday night overnight lows will be inbetween 0 and 10C for most. It gets even warmer on Wednesday out in western Manitoba where the high temperatures will be inbetween twenty and twenty five degrees whereas the temperatures will be inbetween fifteen and twenty degrees out in eastern Manitoba. The warm temperatures on Wednesday out west will be moving further east by the evening hours, by around supper time Winnipeg should be in the twenty to twenty five degree range. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will not drop at all that much only getting to about inbetween ten and fifteen celcius in the Red River Valley, but about fifteen to twenty degrees in Western Manitoba.

NAMs Weather Model Output for Thursday, showing some thunderstorm potential. Though not too impressive.

First severe weather threat of the year is possible on the day Friday, depending on if the front goes through in the afternoon or evening. GDPS GEM GLB model.

Thursday and Friday will be an interesting day temperatures will be getting near and possibly above thirty degrees for much of the province, it is very hard to tell how humid we will get as the models are having a tough time agreeing on things. The GEM GLB is showing humidity levels around 40% (Dewpoints of 10 to 15C) on Thursday in Winnipeg, and near 50% on Friday (Dewpoints of 15 to 20C). . Whereas the NAM has 20% humidity and over 30C on Thursday. No idea how Friday is shaping up with the NAM as it does not go that far out. I am leaning on the GEM GLB solution at the moment considering the GDPS is more accurate in short term forecasts as it is produced by EC. That means it will feel more humid and will add to thunderstorm potential. Lets have a look at the ingredients using the MIST scale Brad V. created.

Thursday.....
M- Good to marginal amounts of moisture on Thursday. Dewpoints of 10 to 15C. My Forecast 14C
I- Looking at around 700 to 2,000 J/Kg of CAPE -6 to -8 LI, if daytime heating is sufficent
S- Weak and very limited
T- Lake Breeze, Warm Front

Friday:
M- Dewpoints of 15 to 20C, my forecast 18C
I- Large levels of instability CAPE of 1,500 to 3,000 J/Kg. Highest in the Red River Valley Lifted indicies of -6 to -10. Highest in Red River Valley.
S- Shear is decent to promote organized thunderstorms
T- Trigger is the cold front which will go through in the evening hours, may be enough to break the cap.

What does that mean for thunderstorms? Given the ingredients in place Thursday could have some pop up thunderstorms along a warm front or lake breeze, there could be some marginal hail with them. As for Friday that is a completely different story temperatures and humidity will be near or slightly above thirty degrees, as well as a approaching cold front from the north. It could create our first potential severe weather threat of the year (depending if it passes by late afternoon or evening) there will be a potential for scattered severe thunderstorms or a severe squall line of some kind. The threat could involve large hail, damaging winds, intense/frequent lightning as well as heavy rainfall. It is still quite far out and a lot can change between now and then but it is still definitely something worth watching. I will keep the comments section updated and post tweets on Twitter about how the threat evolves. A brief cool down (high teens) is expected for the day on Saturday before we warm up to above seasonal for the rest of the weekend and next week (above twenty degrees).