Warm Dry Weather returns, Possible thunderstorms or severe thunderstorms for the end of the week

The warm dry weather has returned and is giving southern Manitoba a taste of summer like temperatures. Over the coming days our temperatures will resemble that of June and July without the high humidity levels although some still in place. The next few days will be perfect to get outside and enjoy either bike riding or even BBqing.

Warmest day of the week on Thursday and Friday inbetween 20 and 30C, even slightly above 30C.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the week into the weekend where we reach the high 20's., high temperatures on the day on Tuesday will be a fairly warm one with high temperatures inbetween fifteen and twenty degrees. About 17C for Winnipeg Tuesday and 19C for Brandon. Tuesday night overnight lows will be inbetween 0 and 10C for most. It gets even warmer on Wednesday out in western Manitoba where the high temperatures will be inbetween twenty and twenty five degrees whereas the temperatures will be inbetween fifteen and twenty degrees out in eastern Manitoba. The warm temperatures on Wednesday out west will be moving further east by the evening hours, by around supper time Winnipeg should be in the twenty to twenty five degree range. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will not drop at all that much only getting to about inbetween ten and fifteen celcius in the Red River Valley, but about fifteen to twenty degrees in Western Manitoba.

NAMs Weather Model Output for Thursday, showing some thunderstorm potential. Though not too impressive.

First severe weather threat of the year is possible on the day Friday, depending on if the front goes through in the afternoon or evening. GDPS GEM GLB model.

Thursday and Friday will be an interesting day temperatures will be getting near and possibly above thirty degrees for much of the province, it is very hard to tell how humid we will get as the models are having a tough time agreeing on things. The GEM GLB is showing humidity levels around 40% (Dewpoints of 10 to 15C) on Thursday in Winnipeg, and near 50% on Friday (Dewpoints of 15 to 20C). . Whereas the NAM has 20% humidity and over 30C on Thursday. No idea how Friday is shaping up with the NAM as it does not go that far out. I am leaning on the GEM GLB solution at the moment considering the GDPS is more accurate in short term forecasts as it is produced by EC. That means it will feel more humid and will add to thunderstorm potential. Lets have a look at the ingredients using the MIST scale Brad V. created.

Thursday.....
M- Good to marginal amounts of moisture on Thursday. Dewpoints of 10 to 15C. My Forecast 14C
I- Looking at around 700 to 2,000 J/Kg of CAPE -6 to -8 LI, if daytime heating is sufficent
S- Weak and very limited
T- Lake Breeze, Warm Front

Friday:
M- Dewpoints of 15 to 20C, my forecast 18C
I- Large levels of instability CAPE of 1,500 to 3,000 J/Kg. Highest in the Red River Valley Lifted indicies of -6 to -10. Highest in Red River Valley.
S- Shear is decent to promote organized thunderstorms
T- Trigger is the cold front which will go through in the evening hours, may be enough to break the cap.

What does that mean for thunderstorms? Given the ingredients in place Thursday could have some pop up thunderstorms along a warm front or lake breeze, there could be some marginal hail with them. As for Friday that is a completely different story temperatures and humidity will be near or slightly above thirty degrees, as well as a approaching cold front from the north. It could create our first potential severe weather threat of the year (depending if it passes by late afternoon or evening) there will be a potential for scattered severe thunderstorms or a severe squall line of some kind. The threat could involve large hail, damaging winds, intense/frequent lightning as well as heavy rainfall. It is still quite far out and a lot can change between now and then but it is still definitely something worth watching. I will keep the comments section updated and post tweets on Twitter about how the threat evolves. A brief cool down (high teens) is expected for the day on Saturday before we warm up to above seasonal for the rest of the weekend and next week (above twenty degrees).