Thunderstorms likely this evening and overnight. Details.

A potential for thunderstorms exists tonight in areas of the Red River Valley and southeast portions in southern Manitoba.

Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in North Dakota and move north either into the Red River Valley or southeast Manitoba later this evening.

Severe thunderstorms possible south of the border this evening into overnight.

Temperatures in the mid to high 20's are mild and ripe enough for storm development this evening, however they will cool down with the passage of a trough tonight into the mid to high teens. An area of low pressure approaching from the southwest tonight will create a area of ample moisture and high energy levels, CAPE\s generally in the 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg range and Lifted indicies in the -3 to -6 range.  As the trough ejects into the area this evening thunderstorms are expected to fire along that feature sometime this evening in central North Dakota and are expected to strengthen and move northeastwards or eastwards depending on the atmospheric flow, entering southern Manitoba sometime around 11pm or later. Where they develop and what direction they head will depend on what areas will recieve rain tonight, if they develop a little further east than expected they will likely hit southeastern Manitoba, if they develop in central North Dakota or even a bit further west they could enter the Red River Valley areas and move northeast into the cottage country and Bissett areas. Scenario number 2 is more likely at the moment, but the timing of the development of storms and where they fire will be crucial in telling where they end up. A smaller chance for showers and storms exist in the southwest portion of the province this evening to near midnight then the threat will ease with clearer skies. However storms will not be severe when they enter southern Manitoba, they will likely be non severe to strong, rainfall amounts in storms are forecast to be in the 40mm range as per Environment Canada. Threats will be moderate to heavy rainfall, small hail, some moderate wind gusts, and frequent to occasional lightning. Thunderstorms are expected to clear late overnight and leave behind the odd shower or thunderstorm by morning, with sunnier skies on Monday.