Beautiful end to the week stormy weekend ahead (with some humor added).

The rest of the week and part of our weekend will be a warm delightful and sunny one as a ridge of high pressure moves over the area however a threat for showers and thunderstorms will arrive at the end of the long weekend.

Summerlike temperatures expected for the day on Saturday, warm and dry as well.

Looking ahead to your day today expect sunny beautiful sunny dry conditions and temperatures in the mid to high 20's a few places may hit 30 degrees with winds out of the south fairly light. A high of 25C in Winnipeg on Friday. Humidity will be fairly low only in the 20 to 30% range, though it should make for a fairly nice day to get out and get exercise or do outdoor activities. Overnight lows will be in the 10 to 15C range, there will be an increased humidity overnight as well.

 http://www.roadsideamerica.com/blog/behold-the-tumbleweed/

That is actually a tumbleweed statue in Chandler,AZ go figure

Saturday will be a beautiful day too with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 20's with a few places once again hitting 30C but that will be fairly hard to reach (places in Saskatchewan may hit 30C on Saturday). A high of 26C in Winnipeg for Saturday. Humidity will be a bit higher around 40%, but still nowhere near what you would call humid. Winds will be light & near 20 to 30km/h out of the south once again. At least it won't be as what you would call a heatblizzard (70km/h winds plus) with a mexican singing jingle bells jingle bell ouch ouch ouch is the heat, oh what fun it is to ride in a texan tumbleweed sleigh. thank goodness we don't have those or tumbleweed. There is actually a tumbleweed statue somewhere in the world that would be a sight to see. As we get into Saturday night things get interesting, the humidity starts increasing as well with dewpoints nudging into the 10 to 15C range where our overnight lows sit in that range. All as the system approaches from the west.

System providing severe weather potential on Sunday, drawing in warm moist air from the south.

 

Higher dewpoints from the gulf of Mexico, means more humidity on the evening Sunday providing storm potential with a low pressure system.

Severe Weather Sunday????
Sunday is a interesting day weatherwise a cold front approaching from the west will move into the province encountering the hot humid conditions that could very well be in place. Temperatures will either be in the low to mid 20's or mid to high 20's with increasing cloud during the day and humidity levels quite higher than compared to other days, creating a setup for thunderstorms once the front goes through. Here is a look at the ingredients we have on Sunday using Brad V's MIST Idea. Moisture, Instabilty, Shear and Trigger.

M-No lack of moisture humidity levels in the 50 to 60% range or less, dewpoints in the 15 to 20C range.
I- Lots of instability is present on the day Sunday, CAPE is 1,000 in the south with a small portion of 2,500 J/kg in the riding mountains. LI is -4 to -6, TT is 52.72, SWEAT is 367.24, Bulk Richardson number is 43.46 Energy Index is -3.39.
S- There appears to be enough shear to keep storms organized enough for supercells I suppose, Helicity is 175, Bulk Shear is 21.20. knots Ideally you need higher shear to support more supercell potential.
T- The cold front will be our trigger for the day on Sunday, timing is crucial to pinpoint thunderstorm threat timing.

Look at the indicies I used (Scroll down to the bottom on the page of the second link for information on the index's and what they mean... http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/ 
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

What can we expect?

I spoke with CBC Meteorologist John Sauder yesterday and he says the timing of the front is crucial to deciding thunderstorm potential on the day Sunday. It looks like at the moment the frontal system will push into southwestern Manitoba in the early afternoon hours and should start to generate scattered thunderstorms mid to late afternoon in the southwestern part of the province with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms. You better get your hailguard out and start ducking for cover, if we were made of stone then we could start breaking the ice, get it breaking the ice? Literally though the threats will be large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy downpours and frequent lightning, by evening it should form into a line of storms that will move east late evening and overnight. Given the indicies after the LI (which are based at my place in Winnipeg) we should see showers and thunderstorms some severe or they may be severe thunderstorms along with the possibility of supercells. There once again is the risk for large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. The NAM is showing a smidgen of a chance of weak tornadoes in the Red River Valley, but I really doubt that will be even likely here Sunday. Once the front goes through expect a lingering chance for showers overnight Sunday into Monday morning with the odd thunderstorm. Overnight lows on Sunday will drop into the mid teens with relatively high humidity.

Look Ahead to Next Week.
Monday will see a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the afternoon, though nothing like it was on Sunday. As we get into the start of the week a southwestern flow will dominate the area bringing in a continued chance for showers with a possible chance of thunderstorms on a few days of the week, nothing severe though. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 20's which is slightly above normal for this time of year. Enjoy!

I will be sure to update you all on the thunderstorm threat that is arriving on Sunday on Twitter and in the comments section of this blog.