Get Ready to Flush out the heat and humidity! But not before we see storms!!!

Unfortunately we have another round of severe weather expected as the stubborn (yes stubborn!) heat and humidity clash with a system coming in from Saskatchewan.

Okay so I have gotten a lot of complaints about this potential another round of severe weather and yes I have to say that I am getting tired of it too, however this round of severe weather will not be as bad as the event we experienced on July 20. That's the good news! As the above map depicts we expect that the high risk area will be in the southwest part of Manitoba and into west central Manitoba into Northern Manitoba. Moderate risk extending further east into the red river valley and southern/central interlakes, whiteshell offers a slight risk towards the early morning hours.

Let's have a look at the Ingredients we have for storms tonight....
Moisture: With dewpoints in the high teens to low 20's and PWATS in the 30 to 50mm range flooding will definitely be a possibility in tonight's storms.
Instability: MUCAPE from 2,500 to 3,732 J/KG, MLCAPE 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg and Lifted indicies from -3 to -8 will help with storm development and maintenance into the night. As a result of CAPE being moderately to very unstable marginally severe hail will be expected with marble to golf balls as the largest possibility hail wise. Base balls could also be possible if conditions warrant enough in storms.
Shear: Will be weak to moderate with only about 100 to 300 m2s-2 Storm Relative helicity with the highest indicies in southwest Manitoba, moderate levels in the Red River Valley to about 200. Bulk shear from 35 to 45knots, EHI's of 2 to 3 in SW MB and the Red River Valley. Supercell indicie of 5 to 20 and significant tornado of 1 to 3 mainly in extreme southwestern Manitoba. That means there will be a strong wind threat with tornado potential.
Trigger: Powerful cold front moving through in the overnight hours into the morning hours.

Synopsis (Discussion)

Brandon METAR/TAF CYBR

Winnipeg METAR/TAF

Radar Image as courtesy of the NAM 4km Model 

CURRENT RADAR

So as I write this discussion storms are forming in saskatchewan, as they continue to move east they will develop further and organize more into a line, in the storms early stages expect them to present a tornado risk especially in southwest Manitoba where the high risk is present. Storms will then continue to move east and develop into a line, that means we will be dealing with a squall line of some kind by mid evening. All threats of severe weather will be possible, winds in excess of 100km/h, frequent cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning, hail up to the size of golf balls in the southwest but up to the size of ping pong balls to marbles in the red river valley, flooding rains and potential power outages. A few brief spinups (funnel clouds/tornadoes) are possible along the line late evening and overnight. They should enter Brandon around 9pm and Lake manitoba south to Portage La Prairie and miami into Pilot Mound around 11pm, Hecla south through Stonewall, Winnipeg, Carman, Morris, Emerson by 1 or 2am. Victoria Beach and Lake Winnipeg south through Beausejour and Steinbach into the whiteshell 3am to 7am timeframe. Overnight lows in the low 20's expected. Storms may redevelop if they die out in the morning in the Red River Valley, or they may reintensify meaning a chance for morning/early afternoon storms in the Red River Valley and eastman high's will be in the mid 20's with westerly winds south of the low that will be in northern Manitoba. They may be severe as well as remnants of tonight's ingredients are in place tomorrow. Please tweet storm reports to #MBstorm on twitter I also will be tweeting alerts and updates there as well, follow http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb for alerts and also follow Manitoba Weather Centre for updates and my twitter account www.twitter.com/southmbweather.

Enjoy the storms! I even bought popcorn to have when they roll in.

Nicer weather will be in place for the start of the week, however more storms will be possible Wednesday some severe.

Storms to clear out the heat and humidity

Today will present another severe weater risk as a cold front moves into the hot hmid airmass that is in place, however it will clear out the heat and humidity which is a very good thing.

Warm dewpoints in our area up to the low 20's possible, may fuel thunderstorms later today

Moderate risk of severe weather is expected today in the central parts of Southern Manitoba with a slight risk surrounding it.

Today will be another potentially stormy day weatherwise and it will be contingent on how much clearing takes place and how much we warm up we could get up to 25 or 26C in Winnipeg today, the risk will be presented as another trough moves into the area. Let's have a look at the indicies...
Moisture: Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 20's coupled with heat index (humidex values) in the low to mid 30's or higher should give a lot of moisture for storms to work with.
Instability: CAPE values will be in the 1500 to 3500 J/Kg range, with lifted indicies between -7 to -10 should help support storm growth and storm maintenance.
Shear: Bulk Shear in the 30 to 50 knot range, SRH 200 to 300 m2s-2, EHI's of 2 to 4, Supercell composite of 10 to 20, Significant Tornado Paramater of 1 to 3. Altogether should maintain storm organization, making supercell and tornado development a possibility.
Trigger: Cold Front going through late afternoon to early and mid evening should spark severe thunderstorm potential as it goes through.

Skew T Graph For Winnipeg, Tornado potential is there

The setup today appears to be severe but not as severe as Wednesday was, a moist and warm airmass will be in place today for much of Southern Manitoba ahead of a cold front that will usher out the hot humid air, but also bring in a moderate risk of severe weather for parts of Southern Manitoba.

A cold front is just situated along the MB/Sk border and will continue to move eastwards this afternoon, it may result in severe weather depending on how much clearing takes place. If there is still cloudcover not a lot will happen, showers may be possible along with the odd rumble of thunder. Now if it clears and gets warm and humid ahead of the front severe weather will definitely be possible. If the latter occurs I would expect a line of thunderstorms to develop out west of the Red River Valley where instability may be the greatest, supercells would likely develop and travel east into the red river valley by late afternoon and early evening with large hail up to ping pong ball size, winds greater than 90km/h, frequent and dangerous lightning, torrential rains up to 40mm possible, as well as a low tornado risk. The storms should be through Winnipeg by suppertime or shortly after. These storms may form into a line at some point or another, either by the time they reach the Red River Valley or shortly after. That would pose a straight line wind threat if anything else. The Storms should be out of the province by mid evening.

Calmer and quieter weather will be in place for the weekend into next week with more seasonable weather expected. Enjoy!

Another potential day of severe weather

Today will be another hot and humid day the potential for dangerous thunderstorms will also potentially arise this afternoon and evening fueled by high heat and humidity.

Today's dewpoints look to get in the low 20's, thus a heat warning is in place...

Today will present another severe weather risk and it could be quite dangerous!!! A couple of shortwaves will move through the hot humid air resulting in a risk for all modes of severe weather especially in the high risk area. Again this is conditonal given that the cap may or may not break.

Moisture: Warm Dewpoints advecting north into southern Manitoba with values of 20 to 25C, and humidex readings into the 40's meaning relative humidity values getting into the 60 to 70% range.

Instability: Through the roof! CAPES on the order of 3000 to 5500, Lifted indicies from -8 to -15 however capping may be an issue until the shortwaves come through which means that storms may tap into the greatest instability by late afternoon east of Brandon.

Shear: Great for supercell organization, tornadoes, and storm maintenance. Bulk shear in excess of 50 to 65 knots throughout the day, EHI values from 1 to 5, and Supercell Composite from 15 to 26.

 Trigger: 2 shortwaves approaching from the west entering southern Manitoba this afternoon and evening, that may hopefully break the cap.

Storms to fire around suppertime

Line of nasty supercells by evening in the Red River Valley

 Discussion: A high risk of severe weather will be present in southern Manitoba today with a sorrounding moderate risk in the interlakes, however it remains conditional due to capping. Today 2 shortwaves will be approaching from the west as a result as it encounters the hot humid air definite severe weather is possible. The cap is expected to weaken around suppertime in the Brandon area and if it does storms will explode to possible tops of 62,000 feet as per the GFA from Aviation weather services from NAVCanada. Supercells will likely develop around dinner time depending on where they fire they could impact areas of the westman region or the west Red River Valley regardless tornadoes are possible early on.  Once they organize into a line by mid evening in the red river valley or points west they either could move east or southeast depending on which way the winds carry them. Winds in excess of 100km/h dangerous hail up to tennis ball size, frequent dangerous cloud to cloud, cloud to ground lightning and torrential rains are likely with these supercells and the line as they move east. Tornadoes atre possible with the squall line or MCS however the risk is much lower, storms should exit the province by late evening or after midnight. Western Manitoba late afternoon/early evening, evening and near midnight for the Red River Valley, Winnipeg and Eastman.

Please follow Manitoba Weather Center, #mbstorm on Twitter and Manitoba Tornado Watch for updates regarding today's alerts, I'll be out volunteering again.

Heat and humidity return along with severe weather for Tuesday

The next few days (things are uncertain for Wednesday so I will do a post on Tuesday evening about Wednesday's potential) will be very active in southern Manitoba with the help of heat and humidity fueling thunderstorm potential, get ready because it is going to be hot!

Severe Weather risk map July 19, 2016

Heat on Tuesday in the mid 80's or high 20's

Dewpoints soaring into the low 20's to mid 20's by afternoon in southern Manitoba.

The day Tuesday looks very unstable hot and humid,high temperatures will soar into the high 20's along with humidex readings in the high 30s to low forties combined there will be a chance for extreme heat warnings by Tuesday morning. Things will get really interesting in the afternoon and evening as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west.

Moisture: No shortage of moisture dewpoints will be advecting northwards along and ahead of the frontal system with values of 18 to 25C, PWATS of more than 1 inch or 50 to 70mm is likely.

Winnipeg Indicies CAPE and lifted index along with shear

Brandon Severe weather indicies for the next few days

CAPE INDEX for Tuesday

Lifted Index for Tuesday

Instability: No shortage of it (above) CAPES will be on the order of 2,000 to 5,000 J/Kg with afew places getting above 6,000. Lifted indicies getting from -7 to -13. This will be sufficent enough for explosive thunderstorm development come mid afternoon,, capping may be an issue though.

EHI for Tuesday at 5pm

Supercell composite for Tuesday afternoon

Significant Tornado Index July 19

Storm relative helicity july  19

Shear: High amounts of shear are available on Tuesday with a lot of Storm Relative Helicity available from 200 to 600 m2s-2, EHI of 5 to 8, and supercell composites from 12 to 25. Bulk shear from 50 to 60knots. This should be sufficent for the formation of dangerous supercells and possible tornadoes.

Trigger: Cold Front arriving from the west and a LLJ cranking up from the south ahead of the front.

Summary: Tomorrow will be a dangerous day weatherwise, a cold front will move through mid afternoon to mid evening, with serious CAPE levels there will be explosive thunderstorm development mid afternoon and evening. A high risk is present in the Western half of the province, and a moderate risk points east into the whiteshell. I expect storms to fire by around 4pm (if the cap doesnt hold) in western Manitoba where a high risk is present all modes of severe weather will be possible with huge discrete supercells likely early on, posing a risk of tornadoes and there could be a few touchdowns.  It will likely grow into a southeast or eastward moving MCS after organizing itself.  In both instances there will be a risk for very large hail up to golfballs and baseballs at best or soccerballs, yes soccerballs given extreme high CAPE, torrential flooding rains, ground scraping wall clouds and shelf clouds, winds in excess of 100km/h and frequent dangerous lightning. The risk for a few spinups or tornadoes will be present in the Red River Valley and Winnipeg by late afternoon and evening with the system, though not as high as a risk as the western half of the province. Western Manitoba mainly a afternoon event and the Red River Valley/Winnipeg, Eastman a late afternoon and evening event. Storms should clear by midnight for most. Remember this is subject to change and Justin on Manitoba weather centre should have updates through the day, I will be volunteering at the fringe festival in Winnipeg tomorrow 11am until 4pm at the patio or the beer tent feel free to stop by and say hi if you want.

I will have a quick update in the comments section by late afternoon and another post on Wednesday's potential late Tuesday Evening once storms clear. Remember to tweet reports to #mbstorm on Twitter and follow them there too!

Severe Weather Returns

A hot and humid airmass will be in place the next few days along with a trough of low pressure that will move through the region, so that will be the main weather maker the next few days as it moves east into Ontario. As a result severe weather will be commonplace as it passes through.

My own severe weather risk map for the night ahead, a high risk is present for the extreme southwest.

Severe weather risk map for Tonight as put out by the RDPS model

For the night ahead an area of low pressure will be moving into Southern Manitoba encountering a hot and humid airmass, thunderstorms have already developed in Western North Dakota and they are expected to move into southwestern Manitoba over the coming hours. Let's have a lookk and see what ingredients are present here:

Moisture: Dewpoints will be in the upper teens low 20's for most tonight mixed in with humidex readings in the mid 30 range should give sufficent amounts of moisture for storms to drop, Excess of 50mm+ in less than a hours time possible.

Instability: CAPES on the order of 2,000 J/kg in the central parts of the province to 3,000 J/Kg in southern parts of the province overnight. A few places along the border could see CAPES of 4,000 to 5,000 J/Kg. Along with Lifted indicies of -5 to -11. Supercells although weak will be possible in the southern half of the province given Bulk Richardson Numbers in the high 30's to near 45. Anything less than 45 means supercell potential.

Shear: Not that impressive but it should be enough to sustain severe storms with 30 to 40 knots of bulk shear expected. That should supply the chance for some funnel clouds in places and maybe a few weak tornadoes, the chance is only 5% though.

Trigger: Frontal system will be moving Northeast overnight bringing in a severe weather threat, as it encounters the hot and humid airmass.

So what do we expect overall???
As thunderstorms continue to develop in North Dakota, they will push northwards overnight and if not either way given the high or extreme levels of instability I expect the storms to either grow upscale into a MCS or elevated thunderstorms that will develop in the form of a MCS with the likelihood of north and east expansion in a squall line/bow echo/derecho. As a result severe weather will be possible through the late evening and overnight timeframe, given high MUCAPES baseball sized hail will be possible for most, severe winds in excess of 90km/h, Flash Flooding rains with very intense frequent lightning. Most of the severe weather will be affecting the high risk area from 7 to 11pm in southwest Manitoba, moderate risk area from 11pm to 5am in the rest of the western half of Manitoba into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Areas from the red river valley east the slight risk area after sunrise. Stay tuned to watches and warnings at http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb Overnight lows will be mild and it will be muggy with lows of 21C in Winnipeg and 19C in Brandon with high teens and low 20's for most and humidex values of 25 to 30C. Thunderstorms should clear by morning leaving behind another sunny and muggy airmass.

Monday another round of severe weather 

 

High dewpoints stay in place on Monday in Southern Manitoba, fueling storms.

Severe weather risk map for Monday as put out by the RDPS model

Severe Weather including Tornado risks are possible in the red river valley including Winnipeg tomorrow.

Monday looks like another busy day weatherwise as a potent cold front drives through the province, there will be a setup for decent severe weather this time in the Red River Valley, hot and humid conditions will be present in the afternoon with humidex values near to above 40C. Let's look at the details about tomorrow's atmospheric conditions...

Moisture: Dewpoints in the low 20's and humidex values in the 40's, PWATS in excess of 30 to 50mm will provide significant amounts of moisture for storms to drop.

Instability: Will be off the charts tomorrow afternoon, 3,000 to 4,000 MUCAPE, lifted indicies in excess of minus 7 to minus 12. Enough for baseball sized hail again given MUCAPE fuels the updrafts in thunderstorms which creates hail.

Shear: Very impressive!!! 50 to 60 knots of bulk shear expected giving storm organization into potential supercells and continued storm growth.

Trigger: A powerful cold front moving in from the southwest in North Dakota.

It will be a very busy day weatherwise as we approach the day Monday, as mentioned a powerful cold front will go through a hot humid airmass, as a result I expect storms to fire in the western red river valley and northern north dakota in the late afternoon hours. They will likely grow upscale into a thunderstorm squall line by mid afternoon into the evening.  There will be a potential for baseball sized hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall in excess of 100mm an hour. Winds will also be a concern as hefty amounts of shear are available for thunderstorms tomorrow. The risk for tornadoes is there in the red river valley and eastern manitoba tomorrow afternoon and evening with supercell potential.Storms should weaken as they move north into Northern Manitoba by late evening. Watches will likely be issued tomorrow so stay tuned to weather.gc.ca for details. High temperatures will be in the mid to high 20s with humidex values going above 40C for much of the south. Clearing should come in by mid evening with temperatures dropping into the mid teens for overnight lows and much drier air will be in place.

Showers are expected on Tuesday with the odd shower or thunderstorm around that will be with the presence of a powerful low pressure system that will be centered over the interlakes, severe weather will not be anticipated on Tuesday with highs just getting above 20C. Warmer weather will arrive by mid week into late week.

I will update in the morning or early afternoon tomorrow regarding the severe threat, in case it changes.