Slightly unsettled weekend, ahead.

A beautiful weekend is in store for much of southern regions of Manitoba, a westerly flow aloft will transition into a northwesterly flow . A few areas of low pressure will also swing through this weekend, that will result in a slightly unsettled but dry and warm air mass. 

Friday: The rest of the day today looks like we will continue having a sunny and pleasant day , an area of showers are sitting south of the border at the moment. Temperatures will likely rise a bit this late afternoon into the evening, however at the time of the blog a lot of day time highs have been reached, at mainly in the mid to high 20C range. 

Friday Night: Expect calm conditions with periods of cloudy to partly cloudy conditions with heavier cloud expected in the southeast, overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens, warmest around Dauphin.  (13C to 18C) across much of the south. Winnipeg: Mainly clear low 15C. Brandon: Clear low 13C. Dauphin: Clear low 15C. 

Saturday: A large area of low pressure off in northern Manitoba will be pushing a trough through areas of southern Manitoba, a risk of thunderstorms will exist for the day on Saturday. Partly cloudy to Sunny skies are expected for the day.  Models show a lack of shear for storms to organize much, however as the front goes through from the north with MLCAPES of 500-1,000J/Kg. I think there will be a risk of scattered thunderstorms, some may be marginally severe however I expect them to remain below severe limits. The best risk will be in areas of southwestern Manitoba , the red river valley, and southeast Manitoba. The chance at widespread thunderstorms is low, they’ll be mainly isolated day time heating pop up thunderstorms . I expect most of the unsettled weather to clear the province by late afternoon to early evening. Temperatures will likely reach the mid to high 20s, (25-29C) ( with areas by the Manitoba lakes seeing values in the high teens to low 20’s (18 to 22C). Winnipeg: Sunny, then 40% chance of showers risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 27C. Brandon: Sunny, then 30% chance of showers, risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 26C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers risk of thunderstorms. High 26C. 

Saturday Night: Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected in the overnight period, a northwest flow will also establish itself over the region resulting in calmer conditions as a warm front sits over northern Manitoba. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens once again, (13 to 15C). Winnipeg: Clear, low 12C. Brandon: Clear low 13C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy low 14C.  

Sunday: A chance for showers is expected for Sunday with mostly sunny skies expected for the day. A cold front will pass through with some precipitation expected, there will be heavier cloud in areas of southwestern Manitoba which may hinder temperatures from getting as warm as it has been over the past few days. The HRRR model is hinting at showers and thunderstorms for the day on Sunday coming in from the North and hitting areas of southern Manitoba specifically the southwest but I don’t see that in other weather models. There are Chances of that happening. Temperatures for the day on Sunday look to hit the mid to high 20s. With areas of southwestern Manitoba seeing the low 20s. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 27C. Brandon: Partly to mostly cloudy 60% chance of showers risk of thunderstorms. High 23C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, 60% chance of showers. Risj of thunderstorms. High 25C. 

Sunday Night: A cold front will travel through the south on Sunday afternoon before exiting the province towards the evening, behind it a slightly cooler airmass will filter in. Mainly clear conditions with a few clouds.  Temperatures are expected to drop to the low to mid teens (11 to 15C), cooler in the interlake regions with low teens expected. Winnipeg: Clear, a few clouds low 16C. Brandon: Clear, a few clouds. Low 14C. Dauphin: Clear, a few clouds. Low 16C.  

The Week Ahead:  Looks like the week ahead will feature a area of high pressure off to the west.  A hot and fairly calm weather pattern will be in store for the week, a large ridge appears to set up over areas of western Canada bringing in heat similar to what the deserts experience in areas of Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico etc of 35C to 45C. This heat will spread across areas of western Canada , before we experience the heat which may be less significant when it arrives here than in BC, temperatures will likely reach the mid to high 20’s for the first half of the week.