A look at what would happen if Winnipeg were to be hit by a violent tornado, through the central portion of the city. This study is looking at what the impacts could be and to bring awareness about severe weather events that can occur here.
Looking at major tornadoes around the city limits, and southern Manitoba over the last 50 plus years... |
Southern Manitoba has had particularly active weather over the past several decades and only more recently have we started to keep track of these tornadoes and severe thunderstorm events. As we deal with increasing amounts of severe weather throughout the globe, we will start to notice an increase in the amount and severity of these weather events. The city of Winnipeg stands tall and majestic in the prairie provinces, yet we live on the Canadian tornado belt. What is interesting is Winnipeg has not been hit by a major tornado, yet over the past couple of decades there have been major tornadoes occurring within a short drive of the city itself. As we begin this research study, let us take a look at the major tornadoes that have occurred outside of the city limits since the late 1800s.
Southern Manitoba has had many tornado events over the past hundred years. Some of those more notable events will be given a look at. The following below are from the Winnipeg Free Press archives (unless noted by the link listed below). The tornado scenario is based on my map of the path I chose for the tornado based on scientific data .
June 22, 1891 – St. Andrews, MB
A severe storm of tornadic proportions struck the Saint Andrews region around 12 AM. Trees were uprooted, fences were blown over, and buildings were shattered. They woke a family who were asleep in their beds when the storm struck, their house was blown apart by the wind and house timbers were scattered across a separate field. (Storm signals page 54)
A tremendous windstorm swept across southern Manitoba from Saskatchewan early on in the morning.
A strong and terrific Derecho or squall line travelled across southern Manitoba causing significant damage to the city of Winnipeg and surrounding towns, blowing out glass windows and lifting buildings off of their foundation. Portage la Prairie was particularly hit the hardest where the entire town was wiped out by a tornado. There was 5 casualties and it is suspected that there may have been multiple funnel clouds, or tornadoes between Portage la Prairie and Winnipeg on that night.
Winnipeg Free Press June 24, 1922 . Page 1.
The Rosa Manitoba July 18, 1977.
A documented F4 tornado struck the community of Rosa Manitoba which is about 83 kilometres south/southeast from the City of Winnipeg. The tornado touched down just North of St. Jean Baptiste and moved in a gradual east and north-easterly direction when it struck Rosa towards the end of its path. At the time there is no documented photos of this tornado there is documented damage. Homes in the mile-wide tornado path were flattened and some of the witnesses said that the twister wreaked havoc on farms. It hurled trucks and graders and ripped strips of asphalt from the highways that it struck. amazing about this tornado is how not only did it rip asphalt off of the highway, it also uprooted 50-foot- high Oak and Elm trees and tossed them into the adjacent fields. Page 4 of the Winnipeg Free Press from July 19, 1977.
1984 Saint Claude tornado
This is one of the bigger events that occurred in the southwestern Red River Valley. This tornado happened on July 8, 1984. The storm system started across Southwestern Manitoba where there was a tornado sighting near Virden. The storm then developed just south of portage la prairie before heading southeast towards St Claude. The twister touched down northwest of town. Hardest hit by the tornado was Saint Claude where the twister toppled Ferris wheels, one farmers property was damaged and expected to be close to $1 million in damage in 80s currency. During the tornado 2 semitrailers, chunks of the Ferris wheel, then several canvas tents were lifted into the air. No one was on any of the rides when the tornado struck. Near the carnival site a house trailer was lifted into the air and dumped on its side. This occurred about 80 kilometres West of Winnipeg. In Rosenort 35 km south of Winnipeg about 100 buildings were damaged when the storm hit at about 5:00pm. It tore down buildings and farms, they were just about liquidated. As well Powerlines were torn down. During the tornado it impacted the entire town of Saint Claude. To help describe the sheer power of the tornado a 4.5 ton 12 meters steel beam that supported the roof of a cinder block building had been tossed 137 meters across the fields. Two cars in the shop for body work were heavily damaged. A total of 12 residents were injured when the tornado struck 80 km west to Winnipeg during the town’s annual French festival.
On July 24th, 2000 a hot and humid airmass, with a trough of low pressure moved into southern Manitoba and persisted into the evening. During this system, strong thunderstorms formed in the same environment very close to each other as they moved very slowly northeastward before dying off. New redevelopment often occurred on the Southwest flank of the storms. There were multiple funnel clouds and/or tornadoes observed from several of the cells as well as very large hail and strong winds. The most interesting thing about this, is that there was a multi vortex tornado on the ground which formed near Brunkild. 30 minutes Southwest of the City of Winnipeg. The tornado made a touchdown at 6:10pm It was on the ground for 10 minutes moving slowly and irregularly. Thankfully it moved through open fields earning an F0 rating however the size and appearance suggested the possibility of a major, damaging tornado. During this event a warm moist air mass over southern Manitoba with cool air aloft and the sharp trough moving through the region made conditions favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba during the afternoon of July 24th, 2000. According to the website the only missing gradient on that day was significant wind shear to develop strong, long lived dangerous supercells. The overall pattern suggested a low shear, high Cape storm environment which was favorable to only pulse type or multi cell thunderstorms. Nevertheless, with the very unstable conditions that were in place on that day and the amount of Cape available there was enough shear that developed late in the afternoon to generate some short-lived supercells as a trough of low pressure moved into southern Manitoba and persisted into the evening. During this system, strong thunderstorms formed in the same environment very close to each other as they moved very slowly northeastward before dying off. New redevelopment often occurred on the Southwest flank of the storms. There were multiple funnel clouds and/or tornadoes observed from several of the cells as well as very large hail and strong winds. The most interesting thing about this, is that there was a multi vortex tornado on the ground which formed near Brunkild. 30 minutes Southwest of the City of Winnipeg. The tornado made a touchdown at 6:10pm. It was on the ground for 10 minutes moving slowly and irregularly. Thankfully it moved through open fields earning an F0 rating however the size and appearance suggested the possibility of a major, damaging tornado. As quoted by the CBC “the big fear with that tornado event was that the lightning, wind, and rain would head for Winnipeg possibly forming another tornado he said it was a near miss as we consider in the meteorological world said Dale Marciski.” If that type of activity had headed over the city it would’ve caused a lot of problems, we could’ve seen a lot of damage and we would’ve been in a much more difficult situation than we were” http://www.umanitoba.ca/environment/envirogeog/weather/radarstudies/brunkild/BrunkildTornado.html
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.203495
2007 Elie tornado: This was one of the more significant severe weather events to occur in the Red River Valley in the 2000s. The Elie tornado was one of Canada’s strongest tornadoes ever recorded, and became Canada’s first and only F5 tornado (as we now have adopted the new Enhanced-fujita “EF” Scale). The tornado developed as a result of a warm front that was draped through the Interlake with a surface trough that was cutting into the warm sectorand was set up north south through Portage La Prairie. Gravity waves originating from the Manitoba escarpments horizontal convective rolls, within the boundary gave way to explosive supercell thunderstorm development around 5:30pm local time just to the northwest of the town of Elie. According to Justin Hobson at the time , a wall cloud developed and a rope funnel developed into a cone tornado which then headed towards the town of Elie. This Twister struck the flower mill and ended up looping back around to the homes where it created F5 damage and proceeded to lift an entire home off its foundation. Surprisingly there were no fatalities.
On June 22nd, Canada’s first F5 tornado made a touchdown at 6:25pm just north of the Trans-Canada highway now called the highway of heroes about 30 km West of Winnipeg. The tornado which was localized at 300m wide stayed on the ground for about 35 minutes and tracked 5 1/2 km before roping out and perishing. Due to the old Fujita scale being used back in 2007, The tornado is now estimated to have had wind speeds less than 500 km/h but still would be categorized within the new EF Scale (EF-5) category. The good news is that many residents were out of town attending high school graduation and most of those who were at home knew how to seek shelter in basements and placing mattresses over their head. The force and power of the tornado was unbelievable. Evidence of sandblasted bark off trees severed utility Hydro poles as if they were toothpicks, the tornado picked up an entire house and carried it a few hundred metres through the air where it fell apart. After the tornado streets in nearby fields were littered with debris from destroyed buildings. The force of the winds rolled two semi-trailers off the highway leaving one truck twisted like a wrench at least a few hundred metres away in the middle of a field.
The effects of the Elie tornado continue to this date as residents who live in Elie are traumatized from the events and every summer is a reminder of the tornado and every storm that comes in heightens the anxiety for residents.
As Lynn Coppola, A survivor of the tornado says, it’s a memory that keeps haunting you every year and it never goes away.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.651965
https://www.aweathermoment.com/2012/06/22/5-years-ago-today-a-personal-recount-of-the-elie/https://www.aweathermoment.com/2012/06/22/5-years-ago-today-a-personal-recount-of-the-elie/
https://ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asplang=En&n=07580648-1https://globalnews.ca/news/4289910/surviving-the-most-powerful-tornado-in-canadian-history/amp/
Historical Tornadoes within the city of Winnipeg Limits
Now for those people who are not aware, Winnipeg has had tornado touchdowns within city limits over the past hundred and more years. There have only been 18 tornadoes confirmed within city limits.
On average the City of Winnipeg experiences a tornado every 10 to 12 years. To update everyone the last tornado occurred in 2009 on June 1st so that was about 11 years ago. Winnipeg could see a tornado at any point in time in the next couple of decades because there is a vast variety of differences in time between tornado touchdowns. From 45 years to as low as a 1-year difference as a minimum. This study has been made so that people may become more aware about this. This write-up is not meant to cause fear and panic rather it has been made for the total opposite reasons, to bring awareness and preparedness to what may happen in the near future, should we have to deal with such a situation.
Notable tornadoes that have struck Winnipeg over the last 100+ years:
July 3rd, 1868. (No photo).
The first tornado to strike Winnipeg was when the City of Winnipeg was called Lower Fort Garry. One man perished. A barn was destroyed and the tornado carried a York boat over the stone fort for a distance of 500 feet.
June 4th 1900.
“Small tornado sweeps over the central portion of Winnipeg”.
-Reads the Winnipeg Free Press.
The roof of the Manitoba plumbing companies block was blown into the electric wires, minor damage to many buildings. Winnipeg was visited by a cyclonic wind storm which although of brief duration, had exceptional force and severity. Around 7:00 o'clock a huge black cloud of threatening aspect approached the city from the west. The air was oppressive, the glimmering lowering appearance of the skies foreboded a storm and the general feeling was a relief of an approaching rain. A furious gale came sweeping down the thoroughfares from the southwest, roaring clouds of dust and within a few seconds everything was in a commotion. Glass fell from windowpanes; doors were slammed, houses shook and women screamed. Within a few minutes the storm had swept by but it left sufficient wreckage. Along Notre Dame Ave a short distance from Portage Ave, the heavy sheet iron roof on the Manitoba plumbing building was blown off and lodged on the electric wires which hung suspended overhead like a cloud in this thunderstorm. Several wires were short circuited, some were broken and others burnt out at the fuse boxes. The car service on the beltline was demoralised for a short time and the electric lighting was also disorganized. Parts of the roofing was found in a yard about 150 feet away on Albert St. detached fragments dropped on the street in front of the building and huge expensive dislocated roofing hung on the wires swaying to and fro making a hideous clatter as it was agitated by the Gale. It was finally removed by the firemen from the central hall. The lumber piles at the new YMCA building now in process for construction were scattered In the CPR lumber yards. Wires were blown down and as result the streetcar service was interfered with for a time. The city lights were out of business for a brief time and the incandescent electric lighting system was off in some parts of the city.
July 4, 1904,
An electrical storm of unusual violence Winnipeg swept by the elements on Saturday right by wind and lightning.
-Winnipeg Free Press.
Roughly speaking the area in which the greatest damage was sustained occurred between the Assiniboine river and the CPR tracks west of Sherbrooke and nearby streets. It was a baby cyclone which struck.
At 726 Elgin street a porch was blown from the house to 732 Elgin street where it leveled the fence at 734 Elgin St. where Mr. Hugh Jones resided. The roof of the back kitchen was torn off and slid half off the building which hung there for a while. Looking from the back of his house one could see that houses, fences, and chimneys overturned in every direction. On William Ave. there was a frame dwelling which had been caught by the storm and turned around. The two chimneys on Mr. Jones house had been blown off and his garden was flooded, chickens drowned, and his stable was knocked out of the ground. His stable was moved about 6 feet from its original position, a piece of cresting was twisted off of the Pinkham school and lodged against the chimney, presumably being struck by lightning. A new house just West of the Pinkham school in process of creation by foreigners was blown off its foundation. The storm centre then passed up the street and hit the city sheds Carpenter shop, around about 50 feet of sheds were blown away. The next building to suffer was a new one on Dorothy street just created by Mr. Hicks, the roof was blown completely off and carried a distance of 50 yards to Brant St. Still cutting a very narrow swath it circled around and came back across Logan street, and lifted the roof off of the house at 933 Alexander street, at first Mr. Dodds thought the building had been struck by lightning as there was a long line of something standing into the air. Which he took it first to be smoke the moment afterwards he saw a large section of the roof floating out over the Prairie and he knew it was a tornado. The chimneys came tumbling down into the house, fortunately no one was injured, Mrs. Dodds had skipped injury only through having left the room to warn her brother in law of the storm which she had seen approaching. The building next to Mr. Dodd’s at 925 Alexander St was carried a distance of 6 feet into his lot. A shed in the rear of the house was taken up and smashed into pieces two wagons in nearby lots were carried away. This tornado with gathering violence redoubled its fury across the open prairie. The contractors at DD saw the storm approaching and immediately ran and closed the door. The next moment the storm caught the building and lifted it from the foundation then flung into the ground totally wrecking the stable. Three horses and a cow in the building with the man were knocked to the ground by the falling walls leaving some room for them to lie in safety. The man was thrown clear across the building but was uninjured. A party of railroad man from the CPR shops and others came over and chopped at the debris until the way was cleared for the imprisoned ones to become free. Tired out with this Titanic effort that tornado next crossed Notre Dame St and tore up a strip of sidewalk about 120 feet long and scattered them. They passed within a few yards of an isolated house and the occupants. Between Notre Dame Ave And. and Portage Ave much damage most of it minor character. About one or two buildings were blown down, about 110 feet of sidewalk was blown across Maryland St. into Mr. Smith's house at 353 Maryland St. wrecking his fence. It crossed Portage Ave. and careened along towards the Assiniboine River levelling one building in the process to show its power. Just where Marilyn street and Preston St. come together. Another tornado met another of its kind rolling up the Assiniboine in a northerly direction. The last name storm produced great cloud along with it. The two winds united and came rushing straight East towards Maryland St. One of the hoists was carried through the side of a house in the next street knocking every piece of furniture in that side to the floor. 2 kitchens, one solid brick, and the other framework carried away from buildings to last mention one. A great break chimney on a house owned by Mr. Graham on Sherbrooke street was seen lying flat on the roof after the storm had passed and one roughcast house on Maryland St. had two holes punctured in the roof by lightning but escaped further damage.
Page 1 Winnipeg Free Press
June 16th, 1919
Page 1 through 3 Winnipeg Tribune,
Winnipeg was hit by a ferocious windstorm that caused damage throughout the city. Two persons were injured, Winnipeg was deprived of water and electricity, and roofs were stripped from buildings. Scores of plate glass windows were smashed in fragments, telephone services were disrupted, safety islands weighing tons were hurled around the streets like wastepaper and thrown through the front of stores, trees were uprooted or branches broken off throughout the city, and scores of thousands of dollars' worth of damage was caused on Saturday evening when Winnipeg was visited by the worst tornado within the memory of the oldest residents. Two people were hurt when a roof fell on a car at the corner of Selkirk Ave. in Main Street. The roof was torn off the house by the wind and was dropped square on the top of the car. At about the same time a large section of the roof was lifted from the Mcphillips St. pumping station which governs the city's water supply. The roof carried with it the power line which supplied the electricity for operating the big pumps and the city was without water for hours. All of the roofing was stripped from the Children's Hospital and from Strathcona School and thrown against the school causing great damage. Saint John's technical high school suffered in the same way. In Portage Ave. from Sherbrooke out to Saint James a large amount of damage had been done to both the dwelling houses in business places. Chimneys were blown down on many of the houses in the side of the streets. The Ave. and the North of factories and warehouses had suffered severely. Here as in almost every part of the city signboards were flattened out and spread over the surrounding landscape. Shacks and sheds were leveled to the ground and shingles and corners ripped from the houses. In Saint James from the CNR trucks westward the trolley and light poles bearing the high voltage lead from the power substation the electric railway was broken off short and lying just where they fell. One pole was blown across the roadway and had to be removed before traffic could be resumed. The South end of main streets near the Assiniboine River two poles carrying high voltage wires broke, one at the base and another halfway up. The break which occurred at about 8:00 o'clock plunged the whole district across the River in darkness, Winnipeg electric wires crossing the River did not receive damage. Automobiles lining the curb on part of Main Street were blown across the street and in many cases overturned. In one place a large sign had crashed over nearly missing a number of cars or parts. Cloth signs were ripped from their frames and scattered over streets where the expected tornado occurred. Numerous show windows were blown in on Portage Ave. Eatons had six destroyed. At the Eatons place during the most severe gust of wind the safety island normally situated by the car tracks by the front of the stores were picked up and carried through the windows of the store causing damage to models of displays. The windows near Eatons store that were damaged were in the Donald street corner 4 being on Donald St. and 2 on Portage Ave.
Summary of tornado 1919:
Damage was estimated at 100’s of thousands of dollars.
The city oil company plant was practically destroyed. Thistle curling rink reduced to rubble. Roof torn from Lydia apartments Lydia streets. City incinerator was reduced to ruins. Blacks lumber yard badly damaged. Huge signs in several parts of the city were ripped from the ground. Pontoon bridge at River park carried away. A House was completely overturned on Saint Charles street the people who lived there managed to escape. Two garages on Buchanan and Whittier streets were destroyed. A Head block on the corner Sargent and langside suffered severe damage to the roof. A Drill tower at Sargent avenue firehall was flattened out. Two big windows in the Eaton store smashed in. A Roof was torn off principle sparling school, the Standard cooperative company at the corner of Johnston and stadacona were badly wrecked. A portion of Saint Andrews church tower on Elgin avenue was demolished. A Stock was destroyed by water when a roof was blown off the butcher store at the corner of killbride and Main Street. A Balcony roof was lifted from King Edward hospital. The King George hospital suffered considerable damage with broken glass. Innumerable plate glass windows broken on North Main Street. A frame building on ingersoll was blown to an angle of 45 degrees. The store windows on Portage Ave smashed and destroyed. The Portion of Canadian fire service companies store blown in, the Brett Mfg Co. completely destroyed two story structure. Guarantee iron company damaged in front and rear. Washing machines carried 400 yards. A Roof blown from block on Frances streets, garage on home street wrecked, new house on banning Streetcar demolished. Several small shacks in various parts of the city reduced to matchwood. Trees uprooted in many parts of the city. Norwood Arctic ice plant collapsed. Winnipeg Rowing Club headquarters suffered badly. Kildonan golf course littered with debris. Car shelters destroyed spire and portion of roof of Centennial school blown away. Garage on Perth Ave lifted from its foundation. Several barns blown away many chimneys smashed. Many car shelters destroyed; house between Winnipeg and Selkirk blown away. Grain building damaged , whole damage to power lines and railway one end of incinerator blown in. Several sidewalks were upturned About 75 feet on Marion street near Heather rink was blown across the street. By cavanagh near Tache over 100 feet of boardwalk was blown from one side of the street to the other.. Hertrand St sidewalk for about 50 yards were total wreck.
May 26th 1964 A funnel shaped twister hit St James, the twister lifted a shed at 4:10 Madison street in Saint James no one was injured. A team were working in the shed in Saint James on Tuesday afternoon when it suddenly rose above their heads and flew through the air. One man was pouring water down a drain from a pail when it was whipped from his hands. A car was parked on the road outside when the twister made a board go through its trunk, these incidents occurred within seconds of each other at western auto works which is at 410 Madison St Saint James. The Twister struck at about 3:40 PM on Tuesday. The twister lifted the shed, part of the shed landed on the roof of the main building at Madison and silver Ave western mechanics . 1 plank flew over the main building and struck the car parked 100 yards in front. The twister was described as resembling a cone and as being funnel shaped up to the top , had only struck one spot in the area. There was no other damage was reported elsewhere in the city.
August 9,1969
“Twin twisters cut brief but vicious path in St James”. Several homes were damaged in Saint James Assiniboine and hydro poles knocked over, the wall of a townhouse under construction was flattened.. Winds up to 40 miles an hour, torrents of rain and golf ball sized hailstones accompanied the twisters . Hydro power was out for several hours from McDermot and Furby St, areas of central Winnipeg. The Tornadoes were born early Sunday evening from turbulent air, the thunderstorms developed West of Winnipeg . During the event horse trailers were bowled over and part of a stable roof blown away that was hit first by the twister. A House trailer owned by Darrell of Calgary was wrecked by the storm. The second tornado followed a northerly course making the most part of its damage on Keith Ryan's farm which is at Hwy 221 on Sturgeon Rd. A greenery roof was blown off hydro wires knocked down. And a propane tank was damaged. Before the first more southerly tornado veered into higher altitudes north. It cut a swath of minor damage in Saint james Assiniboia. Hardest hit was 379 Hillary crescent. A swirling white funnel sheared a complete layer of asphalt shingles off the roof. It was just plain luck it didn't hit a little lower. Mr Smith said he heard a great roaring noise as the tornado approached. It hit the peak of the roof and bounced up, the whole sheet of shingles rose in the middle like a huge bubble. Damage was estimated to be at $1000 to the home and car. Another eyewitness at 894 parkdale said the tornado was preceded by howling winds and hail that swirled around the funnel which was very narrow at the bottom and increased to about 6 feet wide as it went up . It didn't move very fast it went up in the air as high as you could see. Saint James Assiniboine police said a car was hit by a falling tree on Ronald street and the wall of townhouses under construction in Buchanan St was blown over. As well as a fence at 968 Crestview street was knocked down. Front page Winnipeg Free Press August 9th 1969.
May 25th 1975 Golfball size hail , flooding and a Tornado.
A brief but violent rain storm with high winds hail and lightning caused widespread damage ,Thursday night in Winnipeg 38 millimeters of rainfall in the city. Winds gusted from the south at 56 to 70 kilometres per hour. Not only that but golf ball size hail fell during the storm several tornadoes were reported on the edge of the city during the storm . With one tornado reported in South Winnipeg at 875 Hector street the owner bill said a small tornado tore up his backyard. The owner mentioned “ I had a Raspberry Patch the area looks like someone got at it with anger there are no bushes now and part of the fence is torn down.” His tree was ripped apart as well as his neighbors tree. There were numerous reports of flooding in basements and streets. Golf ball size hail was reported throughout the city.
June 6 1976
A severe thunderstorm ripped through Winnipeg Sunday with gusts up to 116km/h , knocking out power lines throughout the city and ravaging property in Saint James. Spectators at Assiniboine Downs were showered with shards of glass as wind shattered windows in the south west corner of the third floor grandstand prior to the race. Six people were taken to hospital with minor injuries and several others were treated at the track Infirmary. Damage was done to the portage avenue trailer companies , which were Birchwood trailer and rentals, and Vanguard trailers across the street. They were estimated to have damage at $165,000 as well a person witnessed the tornado blow campers off trucks around Poles and across the highway. Winnipeg weather office public forecaster Ed Hoeppner described the damage as that associated with tornado behavior. The office receive reports of trees 12 to 18 inches thick being uprooted. A roof was ripped off at home at 65 South Dale Dr. with damage estimated to be at 8000 dollars. At least $165,000 damage was sustained by two camper trailer lights. The winds came up fast said Allen T, an employee of the Mohawk gas bar. 3777 Portage Avenue. He mentioned he was trying to pump gas and it was impossible . Trailers were blowing around everywhere , I was trying to save our garbage cans when I saw a truck with a camper turning off Isbister Street onto Portage Avenue . A tornado came up and wrapped it around a pole . One of the worst hit areas was a 200 yd.² section of land occupied by Birchwood trailer sales and rentals 3800 Portage Ave. One of the witnesses mentioned look at this he said pointing to a piece of plywood sticking out the side of the trailer. The wind just picked it up and blew it through over on the other side of the lights and broken pieces of a neon sign went through two of our camper tops. Across portage Avenue at the Vanguard lot manager estimated his losses at $65,000. A person at 105 blane Avenue said it was criminal the way the houses in the area took a beating. He described one of the houses out his front window faded away in the storm it was like a blizzard I took a peak out the back and the fence was gone . Grandstand glass cuts down fans headline reads,.
*A severe thunderstorm accompanied by savage winds hit the grandstand and Assiniboine Downs created a frenzy at 4:35 PM when a window exploded and eight large plate glass windows shattered. Several people were taken into the hospital where they were treated for minor lacerations and cuts before being released. During the storm it struck the grandstand windows behind the pop stand sending broken glass flying to the air approximately 50 feet. During the storm the front of the grandstand heavy wooden benches were piled into a heap along the fence by the powerful winds. Garbage barrels were tossed like paper boxes. Suddenly a heavy steel cage rolled from the roof or the grandstand across the pavement near the north east corner of the grandstand. Moments earlier fans were standing where the cage hit. Also tossed from about possibly the roof was a heavy wooden beam which landed about 30 feet from the cage. There was no damage in the clubhouse as fans vacated box seats. It appears the storm was in close distance to where the tornado struck,tornadoes normally do not accompany rain. An official at the weather office was that if the race track had been hit by a tornado he replied it was possible but not Likely.
July 6th 1987
Page 4 of the July 6, 1987 Winnipeg Free Press. Environment Canada confirmed two tornadoes touch down in Fort Garry and southern.?Winnipeg during the storm. At one Niakwa Rd., Windsor Park Apartment a tornado ripped off the corner of the buildings roof. The manager of the building, said some of the 40 tenants fled the building Monday night did not return until later on. A total $50,000 in damage was done to the wall and door at the versatile Farm equipment on Clarence Avenue the tornado caused the walls to collapse as it sent bricks flying through the building. The twister also caused extensive damage to the roof and electrical office equipment and federal pioneer limited across the street. Winds ranging from 116 km an hour to 179 km an hour caused hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage to 10 empty CN cars, that were Derailed in the CN Symington yards by the perimeter highway .
June 1992 *
A small funnel was seen at the Waverly and McGilvery intersection, Reports are that it did not touch the ground and cause damage.
July 16th 1996*
During the famous hail storm of 1996, a large black swirling funnel was seen travelling over the intersection of Chancellor, Drive and Matheson Road. July 17,1996 Winnipeg Free Press.
June 1st 2009: Winnipeg Free Press Page :
A F0 tornado hit the northern perimeter and flipped over a semi trailer, and took the roof off the McPhillips athletic yard.
Notable tornadoes within The United States that have occured in populated areas.
Tuscaloosa,AL EF5, and Joplin, MO tornado EF5 May 2011
Moore O May 20th 2013 EF4
Dallas TX tornado December 2019 EF3
Nashville in December 2020
A look at a Major tornado impacting Winnipeg .
Southern Manitoba receives plenty of severe weather throughout the summer season as well Winnipeg has received tornadoes in city limits as we discussed earlier the average time between tornado touchdowns is on average every 10 to 14 years. If the city Of Winnipeg were to be struck by By a major tornado the results would be extreme to catastrophic As the city of Winnipeg has grown in size drastically since the 1980s. Take for instance the city Winnipeg now has a population of more than 800,000 people comparing it to 1985 When the city had around 617 thousand people. The study is meant to bring awareness of the risk we have for major tornadoes in around Winnipeg and hopefully as a result we can better prepare for these events , when they do occur .
Scenario of The virtual EF5 Winnipeg tornado
| Meteorologists would be able to tell days in advance of a Potential severe weather setup on this day. Referencing the Elie tornado in 2007 meteorologists were aware of a severe weather threat days in advance before the tornado occurred. We’re aware of them days in advance regularly now. |
A summer day either in June July or August would give way to Muggy hot humid conditions, and a recipe for severe weather which would include sufficient amounts of shear, moisture, instability available in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorms. A Likely scenario would be that a cold front slices through the hot humid atmosphere during the mid afternoon to late evening . A triple point at the low would probably centre itself over the city of Winnipeg or just near by of the city limits . (Similar setup to the brunkild Tornado of 2000, above http://www.umanitoba.ca/environment/envirogeog/weather/radarstudies/brunkild/BrunkildTornado.html ).
The Atmospheric Conditions would be recognized by meteorologists as having the potential for strong to violent, long lived long track tornadoes or severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. A severe thunderstorm watch or tornado watch would likely be issued in the mid to late afternoon. Likely in the mid to late afternoon or early evening supercells form near the city of Winnipeg traveling East towards the West perimeter. In this scenario one of the supercells would form North of the trans Canada highway aiming at Saint James Assiniboia. In the event this occurs residents would be given 20 to 30 minutes warning time. As the technology that we have we are able to detect tornadic storms quickly. As we have the help of social media nowadays , we are able to get reports of the first sighting at ground level versus , Doppler radar indication which would give ample warning time the residents living in the city of Winnipeg. Of note referencing Pat McCarthy the 2004 Winnipeg up for virtual tornado events he referenced “that super cells within the city of Winnipeg and the red river valley region travel to the south east along a southwesterly flow aloft. “Which is the staple for the Tornadoes path and direction I chose with some meandering of the path as Tornadoes virtually can change direction at any time . (Page 23 http://www.cmos.ca/uploaded/web/members/Bulletin/Vol_34/b3403.pdf)
What would happen in the next hour could be absolute chaos, the city of Winnipeg in this scenario will be impacted by the largest and the strongest tornado in Canadian history. In the next 30 to 60 minutes it will experience its worst natural disaster in its history . The tornado possibly rain wrapped would start out by forming just West of the perimeter, west of Assiniboine downs and would touchdown over the fields across from the St Charles Rifle Range. It would churn over the empty fields before hitting the stables at Assiniboine downs entering the city just south of Saskatchewan Avenue, where it would intensify and grow to 0.5 km at a rapid rate hitting the residential regions of Crestview and areas north of Hamilton Ave as a EF3. The tornado would swing southeast right before the intersection of Cavalier and Hamilton crossing the road gradually moving east southeast towards Sturgeon Creek, impacting homes along and north of Ness Ave and portions south of Ness Avenue. The tornado would make a southeast turn widening to 1.00 km wide as it impacts sturgeon creek and areas southeast of Ness avenue hitting the areas from Grace hospital north to Ness Avenue the hardest. As the tornado resumes a easterly path the twister weakens over harcourt street, before it re intensifies and causes EF4 damage along its path between Portage and Ness.
After the tornado takes a east turn on Harcourt it would plow through the community of Silver Heights, Deer Lodge impacting Golden Gate middle school and Bruce middle school in its path.
(Note the strongest tornado winds will be in the Centre of the path , lesser strength winds will be on each side of the Centre of the Tornadoes vortex . )The tornado will also intensify to a possible EF4 as it enters communities of silver heights and Deer Lodge just south of ness and north of Portage Ave. The twister will damage homes , pick up cars, flip transit busses , break power poles in half and every object in its path will become dangerous airborne flying debris . Strathmillan School will also bear the brunt of this storm as the twister moves overhead. The Tornado will move, through on a eastern course before making a quick NE turn right after Mount Royal following portage Ave to the south. The twister would start to widen, as it moves NE crossing Ness Ave on its north side. It would Impact homes from St James Civic Centre north to Silver Avenue .As it moves north it will weaken to EF3 strength before reintensifying after Ferry Road to EF5 strength as it approaches polo park .Widening from 1.20Km wide to 1.5Km wide as it hits polo park just passing over the north end of the shopping mall at its strongest. The tornado will start impacting more industrial businesses along Ellice avenue , as it continues it’s march NE to downtown. The twister, in the next 20 minutes will not only push Winnipeg and its residents to the limits but will push emergency services and the city’s infrastructure to the breaking point, but also severely affecting the Winnipeg transit system. The tornado will either pick up or blow over busses. On the routes impacted by the tornado. There would be loss of bus service in the regions impacted, busses entering the area of where the tornado is headed will have to wait for its passage or cancel there trip and be delayed . As the twister moves east north east and encounters stronger winds blowing in from the south of the Assiniboine it would gradually grow to a max size of 1.7Km wide before it hits downtown. Shifting northeast along its path moving across Sergeant Avenue, It’ll end up covering northern sections of Wolseley, pushing up to the Minto, Daniel Macintrye, West End, before shifting ESE into downtown widening to 2.0Km wide. At this point all breaks loose, due to the large number of skyscrapers, skywalks and buildings with glass in the EF5. The streets will become like wind tunnels channeling the glass between streets, making for a extremely dangerous situation. The good news is that the high rise buildings downtown are designed to lose the glass and keep the frame. Discovery Channel SuperTornado 2006. Anyone caught by the outside of the building by windows will be affected and potentially killed by the high winds in excess of 400km/h. At this point everyone should be taking shelter in a parkade or in a underground shelter accessible in some buildings downtown, as well as the underground skywalk . Anyone caught above ground (will not be able to withstand the force of the winds . ) This tornado will cover from one end of downtown to the other from Rupert Avenue to Assiniboine avenue and where the red river intersect. It would be in the path of multiple sky rise buildings as well as a CNR trainline, if the tornado strikes when a train is on the tracks , disastrous conditions would occur. These cars may be filled with potentially hazardous materials or explosive materials such as crude oil. Wherever the twister were to pick it up it and drop would result in derailment with severe damage and or explosions to nearby areas. The tornado would move SE , as it approaches the forks and the human rights museum. Making a swift turn southeast over the river impacting St Boniface hospital. Covering regions from west St Boniface, through central St Boniface to Norwood travelling southeast just clipping St Mary’s Road . This tornado would weaken gradually as it moves over Norwood covering a width of 1.5km from St Mary’s Road to just west of and along Archibald street. The twister would cause major damage to buildings and homes. The twister would cross Archibald street just south of Marion street. The worst of damage will be centred between Archibald and St Mary’s or glen wood and Windsor park, including the St Boniface Golf course. The entire neighbourhood of Archwood and Norwood would be turned into rubble. The twister would impact south dale center and the south dale community, before weakening and roping out over the intersection of highway 59 and communities of Sage Creek. The tornado would also be followed by large hail up to the size of baseballs with the super cell accompanying it. There will also be a risk of flash flooding and major disruptions to cell service and power supply to all sections of the city. Downtown may not necessarily have a issue with power outages as the vast majority of power is supplied in underground cables.
Section 2.. Emergency response .
The emergency response and recovery effort from this twister would require all the cities resources and the municipal emergency services to attend to hardest hit areas first . The Army may be called in if there isn’t enough resources available for the city to use to recover from the disaster . Given the fact the tornado will travel through a large part of the central portion of the city , the entire cities emergency services would be taxed to the limit, including police , fire and paramedic services . The first part of recovery efforts would include rescuing those trapped under debris and rubble , primarily in neighbourhoods affected outside of downtown. A more major effort will be needed in the downtown core attending to those impacted by flying debris , those caught underground in the skywalk system at portage and main. Major assistance would be needed to help people stuck in buildings downtown particularly high rises, underground parkades as well as help for those caught in collapsed buildings particularly older historical buildings downtown . For those who are caught in the path of residential areas it would look like a war zone, given the fact the tornado hits a few fire paramedic stations , fire departments may have to be called from other sections of the city and rural municipalities to respond to the rescue and cleanup efforts. “This would include assisting in looking through debris and materials of collapsed homes and buildings for potential survivors. Those looking for people in apartment buildings would have to increase the search because multiple parts of the buildings may be destroyed or demolished or blocked off. Command centres and community emergency shelters would be opened for those who were left homeless or without a place to stay after damage to neighborhoods. Homeless shelters within Winnipeg would be overwhelmed with people looking for a place to stay , including the Salvation Army and Siloam Mission. A vast majority of Downtown may have to be closed off as those areas may have falling glass and buildings collapsing Citing the Dallas Fort Worth Tornado of 2000, "I think by the next morning we pretty much understood the scale of the damage that had occurred," said former Fort Worth Mayor Kenneth Barr. Initially 20 to 25 blocks of downtown were closed as concerns about falling glass from downtown skyscrapers continued. Phillip Poole, a Fort Worth architect and urban planner, said the storm provided an opportunity to redevelop along the West Seventh corridor."I think it gave us an opportunity we probably wouldn't have had," said Poole, who heads TownSite, a real estate development firm that has done projects on the west side and Near Southside of Fort Worth. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/a-2000-tornado-in-fort-worth-triggered-a-boom-in-development/140666/%3fam
As a large area of downtown is affected by this tornado it would be impossible to pinpoint the most at risk areas of buildings collapsing , therefore downtown would be closed for a considerable amount of time before it’s safe for the public .
The cleanup effort of the entire city would be time consuming and costly as well and the rebuilding efforts would be even more expensive. It would likely require the city of Winnipeg , the provincial government and federal government to assist with money in the cleanup and rebuilding efforts.
https://www.gov.mb.ca/health/odm/index.html
Total population in path of tornado : 247,734
1430 per Square Km x 51.82 Km affected.
Damage cost : $25 Billion
Injuries : 247,734 possible injuries
Deaths: If more than half of the population 90% heeds warnings, 247,734/ 99. would be 2,502 deaths.
Damage Data and information about the path and places or buildings affected. Photos accompany the region. Blue is EF0-EF1, EF2 is Green, Orange is EF3, Red is EF4, Pink is EF5.
Zone 1 western Winnipeg Assiniboia Crestview
Schools:
EF0 damage:
John Taylor collegiate wind damage in excess of 100 km an hour.
EF1 Damage: Manitoba school for the deaf
EF2 Damage: Heritage school
EF3 Damage: Lakewood children’s Centre, Bruce middle School, Crestview school.
Churches:
EF1 Maranatha Evangelical free church
Ness Ave Baptist.
EF2: Crestview park free methodist ,
EF3: Crestview united church, Muriel sage park-Salvation Army
Heritage park temple. The church of Jesus Christ Latter Day Saints .
Hospitals :
EF3 Damage:
Grace Hospital
Retirement homes
EF3 Damage : Sturgeon creek retirement homes and residences. 1 and 2. Salvation Army Golden West Lodge
Gas stations:
EF3 Damage 7-Eleven and co-op.
Apartments :
EF3 Damage: Hamilton park plaza, Victoria Arms apartments,
EF2 Damage. Courts of St James, Heritage west.
Total west St James. :
Schools : 7 Total...
Churches : 8 Total ..
Hospitals : 1 Total ...
Gas Stations : Total 1
Apartments:Total 4,
Zone 2 dividing line Harcourt streets.
Schools :
Wind damage: Saint James collegiate.
EF3 Damage: Lake Saint martins school, Bannatyne school, Lynwood school.
EF4 Damage: Yellow quill College ,Golden gate middle school, Strathmillan school
EF5 damage: Discovery children’s centre,
Stevenson Britannia school
Emergency Services:
EF4 Damage:
Winnipeg Fire Paramedic Service . station number 19, 320 Whytewold Rd.
Gas stations:
EF1 Damage: Petro Canada Portage @ Wallasey
EF2 Damage: Shell at Portage and Olive street.
Apartments:
EF1 Damage:
The Shaughnessy , Pinewood place, park west apartments. Thunderbird apartments.
EF2 Damage: Strathcona house ,
Silver Heights apartments, Hastings apartments ,Moorgate apartments, Stanley Park apartments, St James Assiniboine 55+ Center.
Churches:
EF1 Damage:
St Andrews WoodHaven
StPaul The Apostle Parish
Silver Heights Seventh Day Adventist Church, Church of St Stephen and St Bede
EF2 Damage :Prairie Spirit United Church
EF4 Damage : Kingdom Hall of Jehovahs Witnesses
Schools
EF1 Damage : St James Collegiate, George Waters middle School, Ecole Assiniboine school, Herzing College
EF2 Damage: St Joseph’s Vocational school boys home, Wolseley school.
EF4 Damage: General Wolfe junior high School.
EF5 Damage:
Stevenson Britannia School, Discovery Children’s Centre, Herzing College, Issac Brock school. Greenway school.
Emergency Services
EF2 Damage:
Winnipeg Fire Paramedic Station 1705 Portage Avenue
Churches:
Wind damage:
St James Assiniboine Anglican Church
EF2 Damage : Bethel Baptist church, camp David church, Filipino Evangelical church.
EF3 Damage: St Anne’s Roman Catholic church, Portage avenue church, first lutheran church
EF4 Damage: Iglesias Nicristo church of Christ, Faith Bible church, Lutheran church of the cross
EF5 damage: Kingdom hall of Jehovahs Witnesses, Home street Mennonite church, Christ’s family Pentecostal church of God Canada
Hospitals: None
Fire Paramedic stations:
EF0-EF1 Damage : Winnipeg FPS Station #5
Malls: Polo Park
EF3 Damage : South entrance Polo Park
EF4 Damage : Middle section Polo Park
EF5 Damage: Northern side of mall
Apartments :
EF0-EF1 Lount Corporation, Kiltarton Towers
EF3 Damage: Executive Suites by Rose man , Newberry Apartments .
EF4 Damage : Ashbury place , Towers of polo park , Hillsboro house.
Police Stations:
EF4 Damage : RCMP Headquarters
Hotels:
EF2 Damage: Viscount Gort Hotel
EF3 Damage: Canada Inns, Clarion Hotel, Homewood Suites by Hilton.
Gas stations
EF3 Damage: Petro Canada at Century Street and Saint Matthews. Petro Canada Ellice at Clifton.
EF4 damage: Shell and Domo gas station Ness at Madison
EF5 damage: Canadian tire gas+ at Winnipeg Polo park.
Government offices:
EF1 damage: Winnipeg adult community corrections, family violence units the partnership of the Manitoba capital regionGovernment service of Manitoba.
EF2 damage: Victoria beach municipalities,
EF4: Manitoba student aid
EF5: Queens Own Cameron Highlanders of Canada.
Total affected:
Government offices: 5
Churches : 13
Fire paramedic stations: 1
Malls: 1
Schools: 8
Gas Stations: 7
Apartments: 7
Police Stations: 3
Hotels: 3
Zone 4:
Hospitals :
Severe Wind Damage:
Misericordia health center, health sciences center.
Police stations
EF5 Damage: Winnipeg Police Headquarters, Winnipeg Chief of Police Office.
Gas stations:
EF3 damage: Shell at Sherbrooke Street, Domo at Marion Street
EF4 damage: ESSO at HomeStreet and Portage Avenue, Broadway and Sherbrooke streets.
EF5 damage: Shell at McGee and Portage Avenue
Winnipeg fire paramedic stations
EF0 EF1 Damage: Winnipeg fire paramedic service headquarters.
EF3 damage: Dagma and McDermot FPS #1.
Malls:
EF5 Damage : Portage Place shopping Center, City Place Winnipeg, and the Forks Johnson terminal.
Schools:
EF0 damage:. Victoria Albert school
EF1 damage: Ecole Provoncher.
EF2 damage: Red river college the Roblin center, Victoria and Albert daycare, busy bee daycare center. College Louis Riel.
EF3 damage: Heartland international English school, River Avenue co-op day nursery.
EF4 damage: General wolf junior high school, Gordon Bell high school, University of Saint Boniface, Fort rouge school, college of pharmacists.
EF5 Damage: Anx University of Winnipeg, Manitoba Conservatory of Music and Arts, University of Winnipeg , Tara Islamic school , southeast tribal school district #7400. Gods lake Student Services high school. Concord School.
Government offices:
EF2: City of Winnipeg communications, Manitoba health inspectors.
EF3: MB Legislative Building
EF4: Manitoba Tax Assistance office
EF5: The child abuse registry , Manitoba community area services, Manitoba courts, Service Canada, public works and Government services Canada. Citizenship and immigration Canada , Canada revenue agency, consumer protection office . Winnipeg planning department.
Hospitals:
EF5 Damage: St Boniface Hospital, St Boniface Research center . Psychiatry.
Churches: EF0 Saint Margaret’s Anglican Church , Winnipeg church of Christ.
EF2 Mission Baptist Church, First Lutheran Church, provoncher community church.
EF3: Korean full Gospel Chapel, Hope Mennonite church, young united church Bethel Tabernacle United Pentecostal Church, all saints Anglican Church, cross roads Mennonite brethren.
EF4: lutheran church of the cross, Broadway disciples United, new life ministries, Broadway first Baptist Church, Calvary Temple, the Kings Fellowship.
EF5: Mount Zion community church, the wave church, Saint Matthews Anglican Church, city Church, agape table, peoples full Gospel Church, holy names house of peace, St. Mary’s Cathedral, holy trinity Anglican church, the meeting place.
Hotels in path :
EF1: Mcclaren Hotel
EF5: Holiday inn and suites, Winnipeg downtown, hotel Royal Plaza, Alta hotel Radisson, the Fort Garry Hotel, Humphrey Inn and Suites. Inn @ The Forks. Norwood Hotel.
Total :
Hospitals: 3, Police Stations: 2, Gas Stations : 5, Fire Paramedic Stations: 4, Malls: 3, Schools: 21. Apartments not available as there are multiple apartments mixed in with historic buildings and high rises.
Schools:
EF0 Damage: Nelson McIntyre
EF2 Damage Archwood school, Ecole Lacarte, Morrow Daycare, Ecole Van Bellegham school
EF3 Damage: Windsor Park Children’s Care Center
Fire Paramedic Services
EF0 Damage: Winnipeg Fire Paramedic service stations Cottonwood @ autumn wood Drive.
Gas Stations: EF0 Damage
Canadian Tire Gas+
EF3 Damage: Shell @ Southdale Center, and 711 Elizabeth and Archibald Street
Hotels:
EF4 Damage: Norwood Hotel
Churches:
EF0 Damage: Kingdom Hall of jehovas witnesses.
EF2 Damage: Holy Family church, Windsor park united church , cornerstone alliance church , catch the fire immanuel fellowship church.
EF3 damage: Holy cross Catholic church and school
EF4 damage: Springs Christian Academy; Saints Peter & Paul’s parish Center .
Government offices:
EF2 Damage: Drake at Elizabeth Road MLA for Radisson, Canada post at south dale centre
EF3 Damage: City of Winnipeg St Mary’s at Tache Avenue.
Apartments:
EF2 Damage: Niakwa Park Plaza, Creekside Broadstreet properties Lakewood agencies ,
EF3 Damage: Ironclad properties, bernadette porier by Sara riel Winnipeg foundation, wick ham park
Malls: EF2 Damage Southdale Mall
Total:
Schools: 7, Hotels: 1, Fire Paramedic Stations: 1, Gas Stations: 3, Churches: 9, Government Offices: 3
Apartments: 7
It would probably be worse these days due to how much the population has grown and the city itself has grown over the years. Data is a result of the map I created on Gpsvisualizer.com
I would like to thank the hard work of Justin Oretel, the mellenium library Winnipeg free press archives, the U of M Weather central pre COVID. And the help and encouragement of my parents and friends during this project. Thank you to Pat McCarthy for the previous tornado assessment as it gave me further insight on how tornadoes behave in Manitoba.
Well done! This was a great read. Very informative and eye opening. Its obvious the amount of research, fact checking and effort that went into this. First and foremost thank you. I enjoyed this very much and look forward to many more of your publishing. Great job!
ReplyDelete