Slight warmup On The Way

 Much of southern Manitoba will be expecting milder weather to arrive , for the second half of the week that will be more reminiscent of typical november weather. You can thank an arctic high pressure system sinking south through Saskatchewan for bringing in the colder airmass. Find out how cold it will get and how long it will last for . 

(Above) Warmer temperatures are expected for the day on Thursday, this trend looks to continue for us over the next few days into the weekend possibly. 😊😊🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻. 

Wednesday: Will end up starting out cloudy as a cold front swings through early in the morning, a small band of snow and slight blowing snow is possible as it moves out by the afternoon hours. There is a possibility for some lake effect snow showers to develop by the afternoon off of lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Partly cloudy skies are possible in the red river valley, southwestern Manitoba, and interlakes.. Temperatures will only reach the mid to high minus single digits across the southeastern half of Manitoba (-5 to -9C), areas in the southwestern half into the interlakes regions will only see daytime highs in the low minus teens (-10 to -15C). Heading into Wednesday night clear skies are likely as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area, the unfortunate part of this is that overnight lows will plummet well into the mid to high minus teens (-10 to -18C) across the south. 

Thursday: During the day Thursday we will end up being on the backside of the high pressure system (clockwise flow), so we will probably start seeing milder temperatures. Sunny skies are expected in the southeast, interlakes and the Red river valley, the exception being the southwest where mostly cloudy skies are likely there.  Temperatures will rise into the low minus single digits in the southwest (-3 to -6C) and into the upper minus single digits in the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba (-6 to -10C). It’s a good thing because we don’t need the colder weather quite yet. Thursday night will be a bit different, a warm front will be approaching the area ahead of it will have increasing cloudcover. Thursday night temperatures will be doing a bit of a flip flop (no not actual flip flops, we’re in the middle of winter 🤣🤣🤣). Instead of temperatures cooling overnight they will be warming up from sitting at (-7C to -10C) to warming up into the mid to high minus single digits (-4C to -7C), by morning. Some locations will drop a degree or 2 overnight, but will warm up regardless. 

Friday: Much of southern sections of the province can expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. A low pressure system will be sitting south of the border out ahead of it an area of rain mixed with snow , possibly mixed with freezing rain will develop in western Manitoba . This area of mixed precipitation  will move east through the afternoon and may arrive by the evening in the red river valley. I’m only expecting a 2-4cm only. Temperatures during the afternoon will soar into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -7C). Friday Night: A area of precipitation will move through the red river valley, with the risk of freezing rain and snow mixing in . That should clear out by the evening hours, cloudy skies are expected overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits overnight (-1 to -7C). 

Mild but unsettled week ahead with wintery mix of rain and snow

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba, received a significant winter storm over the second half of the week and the weekend. Snowfall totals fell in staggering amounts across the south. With upwards of 50cm that fell in the parklands region lesser amounts as you go towards areas south of the Manitoba lakes. Looking ahead at our week a westerly flow aloft will bring in increasing amounts of moisture,with a low pressure system in our area. We are already seeing a band of freezing rain impacting southwestern Manitoba from this system, I expect more mixed precipitation to occur in the area. There also will be more moderate temperatures as a result of the southerly flow with it. Find out how long the mild weather will last for and what we can expect weather wise in the coming days.

A photo of the forecast precipitation for the freezing rain expected this evening into the overnight hours. 

Monday Night:  Generally cloudy skies are expected as a warm front moves through the area, this forecast is a bit interesting as there will be a band of freezing rain in southwestern Manitoba moving east into areas just west  the red river valley by morning. Ahead of this band of freezing rain will be snow in the south central and eastern portions of southwestern Manitoba. The main concern with this system is that freezing rain will be ongoing throughout a majority of the evening to after midnight, in western portions of Manitoba likely reaching portage la prairie and points east after midnight. The band of freezing rain will likely weaken as it arrives in the southeast part of Manitoba. Regardless roads across the south will get very icy so travel is not recommended if your in rural areas and remember to adjust to the conditions present. As the warm front moves through temperatures will surprisingly stay near to zero degrees overnight in the Red River Valley and the interlakes (-1 to -2C). Areas in the southwest staying a degree or 2 above zero (0 to 3C)  and areas in the southeast staying slightly below zero (-1 to -4C). 

Tuesday: The forecasting is quite complicated, patchy freezing rain will be ongoing in the inter lakes, red river valley and eastern Manitoba in the morning hours. Southeastern Manitoba may end up only seeing cloudy skies. Temperatures will warm up enough near noon to allow for rain to fall in the south central and eastern areas before a transition over to light snow and snow occurs in eastern sections in the late afternoon before it enters Ontario in the late afternoon . The warm sector should nudge up far enough north in western Manitoba to allow for the sun to peak out in the afternoon. Temperatures for the day will sit in the low single digits for a majority of the forecast area (1 to 6C), areas in eastern sections might only get up closer to 1 or 2C. 

Tuesday Night: An area of low pressure will move east into eastern Manitoba, behind it the northwesterly flow will allow for a large swath of snow to develop and gradually move east southeast. This will likely envelop western Manitoba, the interlakes and southern Manitoba. There will be a risk for blowing snow as this system impacts the area. We will only be receiving about 5-10cm with this snowfall as it appears to be a clipper sort of system. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits (-1 to -5C) with the lakes remaining warmer than 0C because of the lake water not being frozen over yet.  

Wednesday: A trough of low pressure will move east, southeast behind it a continuing northwesterly flow will bring light to moderate snowfall in the morning hours.  Off and on periods of snow is expected through the afternoon with varying degrees of intensity but not as heavy as the morning hours. Lake effect streamers are also a possibility as the cold air will be coming off the warm lakes. The same setup happens to people in Ontario during the winter seasons, we’ll never get near as much as they do however. Temperatures will only manage to warm up into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -5C) with areas in the western half of Manitoba on the colder side of temperatures. 

Wednesday Night: A majority of the region can expect cloudy skies, with the exception being southwestern Manitoba where clearing skies is possible by the overnight hours. Some lake effect flurries are possible overnight in the central and eastern southern sections. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits in the southeast and south central parts of Manitoba. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will see lows in the high minus single digits (-1 to -6C) with some areas dropping down to near -10C, some areas may see lows in the low minus teens (-10 to -12C) in the escarpment of Riding Mountain and by Swan River.  

 Second half of the week: Much of the southern sections of our region can expect temperatures in the low to mid single digits for daytime highs. Overnight lows will sit in the mid to high minus single digits. There may be a chance for some flurries or showers on Friday before another area of low pressure moves in for the weekend. 

Significant Winter storm, signals end to warm weather.

Much of southern sections of Manitoba can expect a end to warm and sunny weather unfortunately, a strong and potent low pressure system is expected to bring a blast of wintery weather as it invaded all regions of the forecast area for the second half of the week. Read on to find out how much snow we will get and how long it will last for. (Note the forecasts for Manitoba locations in this blog are from environment Canada). 

Wednesday: Expect cloudy skies as our sneaky low pressure system comes into the region, rain will develop in the morning and persist through the early afternoon in the southeast. Rain showers will begin to mix with snow in the southwest part of Manitoba, the exception being the escarpment where snow will begin by the morning hours. The snow will start developing  in east as the day goes on. Not only that but roads and highways will begin to deteriorate. Most of the snow will melt on contact during the day before some of the snow starts to stick after the surfaces have cooled. Temperatures will remain above zero in the low single digits. Highs near the 0 to 5C mark will be across the south with the exception of the Manitoba escarpment where highs will only reach the low minus single digits (-1 to -2C). Winnipeg: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the morning then changing to rain in the morning. Rainfall amount 5 to 10 mm. Wind east 30 km/h. High plus 3. Brandon: Snow mixed with rain. Risk of freezing rain early in the morning. Local snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind east 20 km/h. High plus 2. Dauphin: Cloudy. Snow at times heavy beginning in the morning. Amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h. High plus 1. Wind chill minus 7 in the morning.

Wednesday Night: Is when things start to really intensify, the low will begin to move east along with it a large area of snow will sit over our region with the most intense snowfall rates occurring over the interlakes, western Manitoba and sections of the eastern part of the province. Winds will be howling out of the north to northwest gusting to 70km/h at times. Widespread accumulations of 10cm are expected by morning with some areas in the southwest only seeing 2-4cm, but as mentioned in through western Manitoba and the escarpment east to the interlakes and the Manitoba/Ontario border seeing as much as 15-20cm by the morning. Overnight lows will drop into the low minus single digits in the southwest (-1 to -4C). Areas in the red river valley, interlakes and the Manitoba lakes will see lows in the low single digits (1 to 3C). 

Winnipeg:  Snow. Snow mixed with rain early in the evening. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind east 20 km/h. Temperature steady near zero. Brandon: Snow. Local amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 8 overnight. Dauphin: Snow at times heavy. Amount 10 cm except 20 cm over higher terrain. Wind east 20 km/h becoming north 20 overnight. Low minus 4. Wind chill near minus 10.

Thursday: Will end up being the last day of significant snowfall, the low pressure system will begin to move into Ontario behind it cool arctic air will begin to filter in which will ultimately create a cold aspect to this storm system. Expect snow to persist throughout the day, with amounts in the range of as much as 15 to 25cm upwards of 30-50cm is also possible in higher terrain mainly in western Manitoba and interlake regions. What remains to be seen is how much snow melts on contact. So storm totals will vary. Temperatures for the afternoon will unfortunately drop to below zero with most regions seeing highs in the low  minus single digits (-1 to -3C). Winnipeg: Snow High zero. Snowfall amounts 5-10cm. Brandon: Snow. Snowfall amounts 2-4cm High minus 1. Dauphin: Snow. Snowfall amounts 10 to 15cm. High minus 1. 

Thursday Night: This storm system will move east into the Great Lakes as some of the snow will start to taper off in the in the southwest with some periods of snow  in all western parts of Manitoba. Heavy snow and blowing snow will continue to impact the southeastern half of the province up into the interlakes. In general expect another 5-10cm Behind this winds will start to increase and cold air will filter in behind it. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -6C) with windchill values in the low minus teens (-10 to -15C). Winnipeg: Snow. Local blowing snow. Windy. Low minus 4. Brandon: Snow. Windy. Low minus 6. Periods of snow. Low minus 5.

Friday: The low pressure system that impacted the region should start pulling out far enough away that we can start seeing some clearing, cloudy skies should be in place for the day with some residual flurries. High temperatures wont budge too much, unfortunately. Highs will only end up reaching the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C) for daytime temperatures. Winnipeg: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of flurries. Windy. High minus 1. Brandon: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. High minus 3. Dauphin: Cloudy. High minus 2.

  

Friday Night: Another low pressure system out in Saskatchewan will move into the region, late overnight into the morning hours in southwestern Manitoba bringing a brief but heavy blast of snow as it moves into those regions as for the rest of the south cloudy skies can be expected as the system moves into the province. Temperatures are expected to drop well into the low to mid minus single digits (-4 to -8C) with areas in the interlake regions dropping into the low minus teens (-10 to -12C). Winnipeg: Cloudy periods. Low minus 7. Brandon: Cloudy. Low minus 7. Dauphin: Cloudy. Low minus 6.

The Weekend: Looks like a brief clipper system will move through our area as it moves into the eastern half of Manitoba on Saturday. Calmer and sunnier weather is possible on Sunday. Daytime highs look like they might be in the low to mid minus single digits with overnight lows in the mid to upper minus single digits and low to mid minus teens. 

Stay tuned in the comments section the next few days for updates on the winter storm as it unfolds. 

-Mike McGregor

Exceptionally Warm Weekend on the Way

 Good evening everyone, looks like it could possibly end up being an exceptionally warm weekend for much of southern Manitoba and the forecast areas. My forecast for Friday ended up turning out on the warmer side of things with highs around 8-12C across the south. As for the pattern An upper ridge of high pressure will be setting up over the northern plains with a strong southwesterly flow in place. There is a possibility that this weather could end up breaking records. Find out how long it will last and how hot it will get . 

Saturday: Will end up being a day with partly cloudy skies and a small chance for showers. Winds will end up being out of the south to southwest, ahead of an area of low pressure off in the NW United States. Temperatures will soar and possibly into record values, the chance exists for highs in the low to mid teens (10 to 15C). If your over by the Manitoba lakes, highs may struggle to reach 10C as the lake water has cooled a fair bit since the summer. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the afternoon, High 14C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, High 13C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, high 12C. 

Saturday Night: A weak occluded front off of a low pressure system will move through the region on Saturday Night, bringing in heavier cloud and chance of showers. Though light rain should be expected, a majority of the showers should be in eastern sections of Manitoba by the morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits (2 to 5C).  overnight with areas just along the MB/SK border dropping below 0C to about -2C.

Sunday: A trough of low pressure will be moving into the western half of Manitoba by the afternoon into the evening. Ahead of it mostly cloudy skies can be expected in the morning hours with clearing and sunnier skies by the afternoon in the south central and southeastern half of the region. The exception being the western half of Manitoba seeing cloudy skies by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will soar once again into the low to mid teens in much of the region (10 to 15C), the only exception will be the interlakes where highs will only reach the high single digits (8 to 10C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 11C. Brandon: Mainly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon high 10C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy then becoming a mix of sun and cloud High 10C. 

Sunday Night: A cold front will be moving through the southern half of Manitoba overnight into Monday. behind this cooler air will filter in gradually. Unfortunately this will likely end the warm weather streak we have had. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits (0 to -4C) to overnight into the morning. With areas in extreme southeastern Manitoba escaping the cold only seeing lows in the low single digits (0 to 4C). Winnipeg: Clearing, low 0C. Brandon: Clear. Low -3C. Dauphin: Clear low -1C. 

Sneak peak at The Week ahead: It appears a area of high pressure will move its way eastwards along with it some seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper single digits (5 to 10C) and lows in the lower single digits (2 to 5C) to the low minus single digits (-4C to 0C). There also is a chance for a storm system to impact the region on Tuesday/Wednesday with a chance at rain or snow. We will keep you updated on that as new model data comes in. 

Cold weather continues

 Much of southern Manitoba continues to sit in a trough of low pressure, the good news is that this pattern looks to shift in the next few days to slightly warmer weather.

 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the colder days of the week, high pressure will drift off to our east in the high plains and the Midwest of the USA by the morning hours moving into Ontario by afternoon. It will still make an impact on our weather and will allow for a southerly flow to take place. Sunny skies should be in place for much of the region during the afternoon. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C), with the warmest weather expected in the western half of Manitoba.  Winnipeg: Partly cloudy in the morning then Sunny, high 6C. Brandon: Sunny high 7C. Dauphin: Sunny High 8C. 

Wednesday Night: Clear skies are forecast for a large part of our region , there’s a chance for some cloudy skies to develop by morning in the red river valley region. Overnight low temperatures will drop well into the mid to high minus single digits (-3 to -8C). Unfortunately it’ll end up being a cold Thursday morning. Winnipeg: Clear, becoming cloudy by morning low -5C. Brandon: Clear low -5C. Dauphin: Clear, low -2C. 

Thursday: The sun will be shining on Thursday for a good portion of southern Manitoba, temperatures are likely to soar into the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C) for the region with the possibility of some areas in southwestern Manitoba getting up to 10C. Winnipeg: Sunny high 6C. Brandon: Sunny, high 8C. Dauphin: Sunny high 9C. 

Thursday Night: Will end up being one of the warmer nights of the week, increasing cloudcover is likely ahead of a warm front approaching the region. Temperatures for a majority of the region will stay above zero in the low single digits ( 0 to 3C),  the exception being areas of the interlakes, western Manitoba along highway 1 up to portage la prairie and just west of Lake Manitoba, as well as eastern Manitoba. Areas in those regions will drop into the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C). The odd exception being the red River valley and Winnipeg where temperatures will drop to a degree or 2 below zero (-1 to -3C) then warm up above zero (0 to 2C)  after midnight with cloud rolling in. Winnipeg: Clear, then increasing clouds temperature -2C rising to 2C by morning. Brandon: Clear then increasing clouds before morning, low -2C. Dauphin, clear then increasing clouds before morning. Low 2C. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies are expected during the day as a low pressure system moves through the region, there will be a chance for showers in the afternoon as a cold front moves through. Any showers that form won’t last long and should move out of the region by the evening hours. Unfortunately because of model data differing it could either end up being in the low to mid teens for most or the mid to high single digits. For now I’m going with the Current NAM model guidance, it  shows areas in the southwest will have a chance at getting close to 10C. High temperatures will soar into the high single digits in the southwest (5 to 10C). Highs in the southeast and the interlakes and the west central part of Manitoba will only rise into the low to mid single digits, (2 to 5C). Regardless wear a jacket if you all can. Winnipeg: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the afternoon . High 5C. Brandon: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the afternoon High 9C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers. High 9C. 

Friday Night: Cloudy skies should linger as an area of low pressure gradually exits the region, some residual showers should be hanging around in the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba. Some clearing can be expected in extreme southwestern Manitoba, through the overnight period. Temperatures won’t dip much and will likely only drop into the low to mid single digits (2 to 7C), southwestern Manitoba will be on the colder side of things where lows may drop closer to 0C. Winnipeg: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the evening low 6C. Brandon: 30% chance of showers in the early evening then cloudy. Low 3C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the early evening. Low 6C.

The weekend: A slight ridge will build into the region and it will allow for temperatures to soar into the high single digits and low to mid teens on Saturday and Sunday, calm weather is also likely . Overnight lows will end up being the same with lows in the low to high single digits. 

Have a good rest of your week! Another blog will be written on Friday late morning.