Dry Week to End on Soggy Note, Showers and Thunderstorms to Arrive with Another Low

 Well folks as I write this, I know you might be saying “are you serious?!, or enough is enough!, or You’ve got to be kidding me”🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️. Well I’m starting to feel like saying it as well, another Colorado low pressure system still developing over the northern plains is expected to lift northwards over the next 24-48 hours. Another round of unsettled weather is expected as a result of this system. Read further to find out how this system will affect us. 

Thursday (Above: Low Pressure system and forecast rainfall totals with the 18Z RDPS). Southern Manitoba will definitely be impacted by a low pressure system, however model data is all over the place with some of the earlier models. However latest model data is now converging on a idea for the rainfall outlook. A strong Gulf of Mexico flow will result in significant amount of moisture for this system to work with. The day will start fairly sunny with partly to mostly cloudy skies, cloudier as you go into the southwest part of Manitoba. There will be a chance for showers or thunderstorms in the morning hours as a batch of thunderstorms pass over northern North Dakota with showers occurring further north. Western Manitoba will see rainfall occur off and on during the day on Thursday. The main event won’t start until late afternoon or early evening, consensus is showing a batch of showers and thunderstorms developing south of the border in northern North Dakota by late afternoon. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms may occur in the early afternoon. A general 5 to 10mm of rain is likely by the late afternoon hours as most storms won’t impact the area until later on. Temperatures on the day Thursday will rise into the low to mid to high teens, (11 to 18C) with areas under showers and rain seeing lower day time highs. 

Thursday Night (Above): A large area of thunderstorms will likely develop over the Dakotas, that will impact a large area mostly stateside with Minnesota and Iowa getting the bulk of severe weather. As well there will be a large swath of showers or rain will move in from the eastern half of Saskatchewan that will envelop ALL AREAS of the south by the early evening, with the exception of the red river valley and southeast Manitoba.   There will be enough instability moving north to impact southern sections of Manitoba.

Thunderstorm Energy (Above): As for us we will see MUCAPE values or MLCAPES anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg higher as you get closer to the USA border. Regardless another area of thunderstorms appear to develop either in northern North Dakota or southern Manitoba by the early evening, there will be a potential for significant rainfall in a very short period of time, also a threat for hail upwards of 1.0 to 1.5 inch in size. Most of these thunderstorms will hit southeastern Manitoba with the red river valley at risk as well, still yet have to determine where the heaviest of them will hit as models keep shifting overall track of these thunderstorms.The storm threat will persist into the evening hours with the track from south to north northeast, NW Ontario will likely see the storms move into the area as well. Most of the southwest and the parklands will see rain by the evening into the overnight period with embedded thunderstorms. A dry slot will fill in to the red river valley and southeast Manitoba after midnight.  

Rainfall accumulations in general are expected to be anywhere from 20 to 40mm, in southwestern Manitoba higher amounts in thunderstorms. (See the rainfall totals map above): Areas in southeastern Manitoba and the red river valley could see amounts between 30 and 50mm, amounts in localized locations could receive 60mm or more in thunderstorms. Much of the region will see temperatures drop into the high single digits in the southwest part of the province (5 to 10C), areas in the southeast will drop into the low teens (10 to 14C).  

Friday: Much of the south will likely dry, except the southwest and parklands where rain and showers will continue into the afternoon. The only exception winds will be strong on the eastern side of the low, gusts to 60km/h or more is possible in the south central, interlakes and southeast part of the province. Sunny skies are expected during the day in the southeast with temperatures for most of the region rising up into the mid to high teens, areas in the southwest will struggle to reach any warmer than 10C. 

Friday Night: The low pressure system I mentioned will move into far northern sections of Manitoba, calmer conditions are likely during the night. Temperatures will cool significantly cooler with lows averaging out around 4 to 8C. Some areas in the parklands could even drop towards 2 or 3C. 

The weekend: Calmer weather is forecast with high pressure forecast to take over on the weekend with temperatures in the mid to high teens forecast across the south with the exception of the interlakes regions seeing highs in the high single digits on Saturday. Overnight lows on Saturday night dropping well below average into the low single digits to mid single digits. Sunday will be a bit warmer with highs in the mid teens in the south with the warmth in the low teens getting as far north as the interlakes and bissett nopiming park regions.