Southern sections of Manitoba have had warmer than average temperatures over the past few days, unfortunately that trend looks to shift over to a wetter and more unsettled pattern over the next 24-48 hours.
(Above): Total rainfall for the region with upwards of 20 to 40mm in the western half of Manitoba by Monday.
The rest of today: A low pressure system will move into our area over the next 12 hours ahead of it extensive cloud cover will sit over our area, with periods of sun and heat in between. Most of the unsettled weather is not expected until tonight. Temperatures for today are still likely to rise into the low to mid 20’s in the areas along the American border, areas north of the trans Canada highway will likely see temperatures in the low 20’s and points north in the high teens. Unfortunately the parklands will only see highs in the mid teens due to continuous cloudcover.
Tonight: As the low pressure system from the southwest approaches tonight, with another low pressure system draped over central Manitoba a large swath of rain will move in overnight into Sunday morning as weakening thunderstorms move in from North Dakota with the bulk of it falling in southwestern sections of Manitoba, before spreading into all of the region by morning. There’s a chance some of the precipitation could contain embedded thunderstorms which would result in higher amounts of precipitation that could fall. By morning a general 5-10mm will likely have fallen. Areas in western Manitoba could see upwards of 10 to 35mm by sunrise ( in southeastern Saskatchewan a rainfall warning has been issued there for significant rainfall as another low to the west affects them). Temperatures tonight should drop into the low teens in the southeast part of Manitoba towards the pembina valley (west of Morden) northeast into the Selkirk areas, areas from Winnipeg and points west can expect to see lows in the low teens tonight. Areas in the parklands can see lows in the high single digits.
(Above): Severe Thunderstorm risk for Sunday in southern Manitoba.
(Above): Skew T Graph for around Winnipeg, on Sunday evening.
Tomorrow (Sunday): By morning there’s a chance that the south could be dealing with rainfall with embedded thunderstorms, it’s difficult to determine where the rain will be the heaviest because the HRRR is only showing it the heaviest over the southwest and some parts of the parklands. Where the NAM is mentioning the heavy rains across the region. I’m expecting showers and thunderstorms in the morning which is a major concern due to the flooding already happening in the red river valley and the parklands, interlakes. Rain and showers will continue on Sunday in the parklands and western Manitoba with upwards of 20 to 40mm of rainfall. Regardless, a general 15 to 30mm is likely in the extreme southwest, with areas further east mainly Brandon to Portage La Prairie seeing 10 to 15mm. Areas in the red river valley only seeing 5-10mm. Then by early afternoon those showers should clear and move into the northern interlakes and parklands. Then cloudy skies are likely across the southwest. The southeast including Winnipeg the red river valley and the southeast part of Manitoba will then likely have to deal with a warm front advancing northwards. It will not only bring in warmer temperatures and humidity, but our dew point temperatures will likely warm into the mid to high teens and the low 20’s in the red river valley with temperatures near or above 20C This will be enough to allow thunderstorm development, with MLCAPE and SBCAPE rising into the 1,000 to 3,000Joules per kilogram and the risk also exists for severe weather although a slight risk. What concerns me is that the low will be really close to the red river valley, the Energy Helicity Index which indicates tornado potential has been between 2 and 4 to 6 on the scale as well as helicity values between 200 to 600m2s2 meaning the risk for tornadoes are there. The result would be a risk for supercell thunderstorms to form by early to mid to late afternoon in the red river valley with initial risks of large hail, damaging winds, intense lightning, and a tornado or 2. Then there would be upscale growth into a line of thunderstorms. A note is that the warm front may not be able to move far enough north to present a risk for severe thunderstorms, and instead may just impact the northwestern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Regardless a severe weather threat will be present tomorrow in the southeast part of Manitoba. The southeast could see 20 to 30mm of rainfall in thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening again all dependent on where the thunderstorms form. Temperatures on the day Sunday will rise into the low teens in the parklands and the interlakes, areas in southern sections of Manitoba will see highs in the mid to high teens with the exception of the border areas seeing highs in the low 20’s.
Sunday Night: Most of the activity should clear out by the evening to the early overnight. Calm weather should overtake the region with temperatures dropping into the low to mid teens with some areas in the interlakes dropping into the high single digits to low teens.
The week: There will be a chance for more unsettled weather with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southeast part of Manitoba, on Monday evening into Tuesday with 20 to 30mm of rain possible. Calmer weather will arrive by the middle week. Temperatures will likely sit in the low to mid teens for daytime highs and high single digits for lows.
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