Much of southern Manitoba is experiencing well above average precipitation this spring and this trend unfortunately looks to continue as another low pressure system is expected to impact southern Manitoba after the one we are experiencing moves out. Find out how this will impact our weather over the next 24-48 hours into the weekend.
Wednesday: Earlier today Showers and Thunderstorms went through the parklands, interlakes, Red River Valley and the southeast parts of Manitoba this morning. The low pressure system that has been impacting us, has now moved into the northwest sections of Ontario. Behind it high pressure will build in briefly, cloudy skies are still expected however. Temperatures for the second half of the day today will rise into the low teens in the southeast (12 to 15C), areas in the southwest into the interlakes will only warm up to (4 to 9C.)
Wednesday Night: Cloudy skies are expected overnight into the morning hours. An approaching area of low pressure will move into the region by early morning, bringing a chance of showers or rain to extreme western and southwestern sections of Manitoba by sunrise with only 5mm of rain expected by 6am. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits for most overnight, with the coldest weather expected in the interlakes.
Thursday (Above): By Thursday an area of low pressure will have moved into our region, I unfortunately have some bad news this system is going to drop a lot of rain in a short period of time for areas already struggling with flooding. Rain will begin to fall during the late morning to early afternoon across the western half of Manitoba, reaching the red river valley by the late afternoon with western portions being affected into the evening hours. rain will persist until early evening in extreme southwest Manitoba, before a break occurs. There’s a chance of some weak embedded thunderstorms occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours in the swath of rainfall. By the early evening hours an entire swath of southern Manitoba and the interlakes will be seeing rain the exception being southwest Manitoba. By the evening a general 10-20mm of rain can be expected for southern sections with areas in the southwest and eastern Manitoba only seeing 5-10mm of rainfall. Areas in the parklands from Winnipeg north through lake Manitoba into Riding Mountains and Assessippi can expect a total from Wednesday morning to Thursday evening a general 30 to 70mm of rain to have fallen by evening, it’s probably adding the rain on top of the thunderstorms seen on Wednesday morning so a general 20 to 30mm can be expected on top of rain already fallen. Temperatures for the day will rise into the mid to high single digits in southwestern Manitoba, (6 to 10C), areas in south central and south eastern Manitoba will soar into the low to mid teens where highs might get as warm as 12C to 15C.
Thursday Night: The position of the low will move over the American border into NW Ontario, with it the precipitation swath will orient itself west to east. More rain will fall overnight for a large swath of the southern half of Manitoba, showers are likely closer to the American border. If colder air can wrap into this system overnight, which looks likely a section of southwest Manitoba and the parklands can expect a chance at light snow or flurries. By the morning some of those flurries could envelop parts of the red river valley but that looks a lot less likely than previous model runs.
Rainfall accumulations Below:
RDPS
vs NAM model
Another 10 to 30mm of rainfall is likely by the morning hours on Friday through the parklands, interlakes, red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Lesser amounts of 5-10mm can be expected in the southwest and areas amongst the border regions. There is a chance that this could change however, depending on where the rain situates itself the higher amounts could end up further north with most of the red river valley, south central and southeast missing the rain. There’s a possibility that the heavier swath could also orient itself over and north of the American border with heavier amounts in SW MB, but most consensus is hinting at it being in a central locations of the south. Snowfall accumulations won’t total much , even though the NAM is saying 10-15cm for Dauphin and the western part of Manitoba. It’s an outlier. I would only assume that 5-10cm could fall and this is a long shot because normally we don’t see heavy snowfalls this time of year. Most of it would melt on contact before snow sticks. Based on the NAM model over projecting I’m gonna go with the RDPS solution, a general 1 to 5cm can be expected in any snow that falls in the parklands and in the southwest parts of Manitoba. THE GOOD NEWS IS I DONT SEE ANY SIGN OF A SNOWSTORM HAPPENING LIKE WE SAW IN MAY OF 2004. There’s a chance of seeing some flurries in southeastern Manitoba however the risk is lower. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop into the low to mid single digits, the coldest of the air in the southwest (3 to 7C) with areas in the parklands dropping below zero to around -1C areas in the southwest will be the coldest.
Friday: Showers or flurries will persist in the morning hours before clearing by the late morning. Cloudy skies are likely as more of a northwesterly flow component moves in. Highs on Friday will be well below normal as temperatures are forecast only to rise into the mid to high single digits and around 10C. Our normals are around the high teens and low 20’s for this time of year.
Friday Night: Clearer skies should take over with partly cloudy skies expected overnight, a northwest flow will continue to make it cooler than average. Most areas will drop into the low single digits or a degree or 2 or 3 below zero in patchy sections.
The Weekend and Long Range: Temperatures look to finally rebound as the weekend arrives, there will be a good chance at sunshine returning with our daytime temperatures rising into the low teens and high single digits on Saturday. Saturday night overnight lows will drop a few degrees above 0C and below zero in the interlakes regions. Sunday and Sunday night will feature sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to high teens. Overnight lows in the mid to high single digits. The mild weather continues into next week. Chances at thunderstorms and or severe weather appear more likely as heat builds, GDPS is already hinting at more instability by next week. Will monitor for changes.
As always, thank you Mike
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