Ending Heatwave to lead to Showers and Thunderstorms with Severe Weather Possible

 Much of southern Manitoba has experienced a stretch of hot and humid weather, Winnipeg also broke a all time high dew point temperature record yesterday. Maxed out at 26.3 breaking the old record of 26.1 in July 1966 according to Scott on Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottdkehler/status/1548827555012255744?s=21&t=czBbIfoqpLAUlWtzYS0rXg This extreme heat also resulted in storms with funnel clouds near St Francois Xavier yesterday evening. https://twitter.com/michaelnowak123/status/1548818468534947840?s=21&t=czBbIfoqpLAUlWtzYS0rXg Regardless this pattern looks to change as a low pressure system moves through tonight into tomorrow. This blog will be brief however, as I’m quite tired after a long day. 

Tonight (Above): A low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba from Saskatchewan, ahead of it a very unstable airmass in place will contribute to a batch of severe possibly dangerous thunderstorms to move into southern Manitoba impacting mainly western Manitoba. These thunderstorms will have the potential for rainfall in excess of 50mm or more, torrential downpours, wind gusts from 70 to 100km/h, very large hail.  Flash flooding is possible with any thunderstorm that moves into the already hot and humid airmass. Temperatures tonight will drop into the high teens in the southwest Manitoba, with lows remaining in the low 20’s in southeastern Manitoba.  

Tuesday (Above): This is when the main concerns for a line of severe thunderstorms in south central Manitoba are highest, by pre dawn winds could exceed 80km/h with 100km/h possible in bowing segments (where a bow or curve on radar appears). Best chance for severe storms in Winnipeg and the red river valley appear to be in the 5-10am period. There is also a high risk for large hail and heavy rainfall in excess of 50 with upwards to 75mm. The sun could come out after the main batch of storms clear, before later in the day another threat of thunderstorms will redevelop mainly targeting southeast Manitoba and the south central parts of Manitoba. The threat for flash flooding, large hail,  will develop as these storms look to sit over the same area for a large amount of time as they move southeast with the low itself. 

 Latest model data is hinting at well over 75 to 100 mm of rain in south central and southeastern Manitoba once all is said and done. Thunderstorms should clear on Tuesday evening.  These will be significant rains that could lead to worsening overland flooding and high water flows. 

Tuesday Night: Clearing will occur behind the system and temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens. As a northwesterly flow develops. 

Wednesday: Hot and sunny weather can be expected, with drier weather likely on Wednesday with highs in the mid to high 20’s.