Heat and Humidity briefly return , thunderstorms and Severe Weather Possible.

 Much of our region has had plentiful amounts of heat and humidity, thunderstorms have also been a regular occurrence as low pressure systems have moved through. On Saturday there was a supercell thunderstorm that developed north of Winnipeg, prompting tornado warnings, I managed to capture this on highway 1 east of Winnipeg facing NW towards stonewall on my way home with my uncle from Steinbach. (Photo below). Also a capture from Aaron Jayjacks twitter while he was chasing the supercell, link here: https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1546143257867984898?s=21&t=UK4z701tXJ745NRB1hyHHQ

Severe weather followed the following day as well. Cooler and more seasonal weather has arrived, that is expected to change however. Hotter and more humid conditions is expected over the next few days. Find out about your day on Wednesday through the weekend in this blog.

 

Wednesday : A high pressure system will be building in on the day Wednesday, warm and mild temperatures are expected with sunshine. There will be a mix of sun and clouds as well. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s, with some areas seeing highs closer to 30C especially in western Manitoba. 

Wednesday night: Overnight an area of increasing clouds is expected as a cold front and low pressure system moves into southeastern Saskatchewan, the system will then move into southern Manitoba into the morning hours. There will be chances at showers in the early morning hours with some weak thunderstorms possible especially near the Saskatchewan border. Temperatures on Wednesday night will drop into the upper teens, areas around lake Winnipeg and Manitoba may see lows closer to 15C. 

Thursday: This is when the forecast gets interesting, a low pressure system approaching from the eastern half of Manitoba is expected to move into southern Manitoba during the day on Thursday. Models are agreeing in on the consensus for weather tomorrow. Most models are bringing in area of showers from all of western Manitoba into the parklands during the morning with that area developing into possible thunderstorms during the early afternoon by the time it reaches the red river valley and inter lakes. Later in the day the Severe weather risk as the front moves through will depend on the overall coverage and length of time these showers and storms take to clear, if they move in, at all. Models are all over the place, yes. Later in the day would be lower, earlier in the day may amplify that risk. Regardless clearing will likely take place for the early to mid afternoon. Depending on how long these take to clear out, temperatures might not be able to reach there full daytime high potential until by around 6pm. Regardless temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s with a majority of the region seeing very muggy weather with dewpoints between 16 to 21C, with the highest values centered over the red river valley and west of the city of Winnipeg in the pembina valley south of lake Manitoba mainly, that will move east with the front into the southeast by evening. There will be a conditional risk of severe weather in southwest and south central, interlakes and eastern Manitoba as a frontal system will move into a potentially soupy airmass capping may inhibit storms however. Looking at the dynamics CAPE will be in excess of 1,000 to 2,500 by evening. Depending on overall high shear placement there may be enough Helicity to allow for thunderstorm organization and tornadic development a majority of the high shear levels look to be in the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. So overall once initial showers and thunderstorms move out another chance at possibly severe weather will come to southern sections of Manitoba. With high humidity upwards of 25-50mm or more is possible, hail up to the size of toonies or larger, wind gusts possibly up to 90km/h, and a tornado or 2 can’t be ruled out especially in the early evening.

Thursday Night: Once the frontal system moves out of our soupy airmass, I expect a gradual clearing by the evening hours. There may be a chance at overcast conditions developing after midnight with the frontal passage. I expect overnight lows on Thursday night to drop into the mid to high teens, with the areas seeing cloudy skies in the southwest and south central areas dropping into the mid teens. 

Friday: An area of high pressure will move in and allow for calmer and more stable weather over the prairie provinces, it’s honestly needed. This is one of the fewest blog posts that I have written that has nice weather in store, I drove out into southern Manitoba with my uncle on Saturday and there is a lot of corn growing with canola. So we don’t need a lot of rain, what tends to happen is that too much rain can prevent proper crops from developing. Also the better corn crops provide that atmosphere with the juice needed for severe weather in the summer. Regardless, I’m expecting a slight chance for some showers and some strong thunderstorms to occur in very isolated sections as CAPE values may climb into the low 1,000 to 1,500 range in western Manitoba. Temperatures will still rise into the mid to high 20’s with a few areas rising into the low 30’s especially southwestern Manitoba. 

Friday Night: A low pressure system in Saskatchewan may bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms into western sections of Manitoba by the evening into the overnight hours. There will also be very mild conditions in place, overnight lows will be hovering in the mid to high teens, dewpoints close to 20C so it’s possible that the humidity may get near 100% at times. 

The weekend: Increasing amounts of heat and humidity looks likely for the weekend, with dewpoints soaring into the high teens to low 20’s with some areas possibly seeing them rise into the mid 20’s. Temperatures will also rise into the high 20’s to low 30’s and even mid 30’s on Sunday with the overnight lows only in the high teens to mid 20’s. The likely humidex surpassing 40C on both days. Will also need to watch for severe weather on the weekend with low pressure systems nearby or possibly moving through Manitoba we will need to keep an eye on the skies. 

-Mike McGregor