Heat Wave Continues, showers and thunderstorm threat persists well into the week.

Southern Manitoba continues to be impacted by a hotter than average weather this week, according to the latest weather models a strong ridge remains in place just east of us. This pattern despite the ridge east of us and our jet stream flattening, a southerly flow will again build north over our area as multiple low pressure systems ride over top of it. Find out what this means for our weather pattern over the coming days, as we start experiencing the risk of thunderstorms.

(Above):  The current upper pattern shows slight troughing on the west coast, with ridging on the east coast. That ridge will build in again mid week bringing more heat and humidity to the prairie provinces. 

Monday (Above): Today we will see increasing cloud cover as cold front and stationary front approach the red river valley, areas in southwestern Manitoba are already seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region. Mainly non severe thunderstorms are possible spreading into the red river valley and southeast Manitoba as marginal instability builds into those  regions, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms as well in all areas of the south however lower than 40% chance. Temperatures in the red river valley, southeast will remain mild with high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s. A few areas may be as warm as 30C or so, its possible Winnipeg may see its 5th day of temperatures above 30C. Areas only reaching the mid 20’s in the southwest and western part of Manitoba due to convection.  Tonight convection should weaken as the sun sets and overnight low temperatures will for the majority of our region drop into the low to mid teens for southwest Manitoba. Areas in eastern Manitoba will see lows in the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday: Another round of unsettled weather is possible as a cold front moves through in the afternoon hours in the red river valley, this frontal system will encounter higher instability values of 1,000 to 2,000 J/KG. in the red river valley and southeast Manitoba. Scattered non severe and potentially severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail and damaging winds. However nothing organized looks possible due to lack of moisture and shear present. Not everyone will see a thunderstorm due to the very scattered nature of the storms. Temperatures will again rise into the mid to high 20’s with most areas being again close to the 30C mark. Tuesday Night: Any storms left over should clear the province as the system moves into Ontario, temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens for the majority of the region. A few areas may see overnight lows around 15 or 16C. 

Wednesday: A calmer weather pattern will move in for us as we start seeing a more stable weather pattern for us for the second half of the week despite there being low pressure systems in our vicinity. There will be showers and thunderstorms as a possibility in central Manitoba, but that won’t affect the rest of the region. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will rise into the high 20’s across the south. Areas in the interlakes seeing highs in the high teens or low 20’s. Wednesday night: Calm weather continues with lows in the low to mid teens. 

The second half of the week: Another round of unsettled weather is possible as more instability builds in with high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and low 30’s returning, more low pressure systems will also move through this airmass so we will have to watch for severe weather if it develops. 

Hot weather arriving, chances of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms

 Get ready folks, southern sections of Manitoba will be experiencing a switch over to hot and dry weather over the coming days, a persistent ridge over the canadian prairies and a trough on the east coast and off the west coast of california will allow for heat to move in and stay for the course of the next several days. This pattern is stubborn as the upper level winds dont want to change much. As well due to a lack of persistent winds from the gulf of mexico there wont be much in the way of humidity, this makes for a complicated forecast as systems are set to move over that ridge bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, but some areas may not see this happen at all. This blog will look at this upcoming pattern. 

Heat Incoming!!!! Hotter weather is on the way for Friday and it is coming earlier than average, enjoy these well above average temperatures (which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal) Wooo!!

Wednesday Night: Today much of our region including areas of central Manitoba are dealing with hazy conditions from wildfires in Alberta, the good news is that a large portion of Alberta is no longer being influenced by significant fires there still is some burning but not to the extent where it was last week. Today expect scattered showers over southern sections of Manitoba with, a small cahnce at thundershowers. Temperatures today will go from being in the mid to high teens, into the low teens and high single digits tonight.

Thursday: On Thursday the humidity will increase likely, dewpoints will go from being in the high single digits to the low teens. A frontal system will stall out in western Manitoba, with that frontal system a warm front will be draped over southwestern Manitoba that will occlude and then with the cold front over western Manitoba during the afternoon and evening in Swan River and the parklands regions. Ahead of it CAPE of 1,000 to 2,500 and SRH values between 100 and 250 present posing a risk of severe thunderstorms and weak supercell thunderstorms. As there will be a ridge in place as this storms form, instead of a gradual east movement, expect these storms to move northeast and weaken as they do. There will be inital risk of supercell thunderstorms scattered in nature before storms congeal into a line by mid evening. Severe weather threat areas appear to be from Dauphin north to Swan River, eastwards and northeastwards with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. General amounts of 5-15mm are likely. Temperatures will take a soaring on Thursday with places seeing high values soar into the high 20's and low 30's, the highest values will be in southwest Manitoba, and the parklands.

Thursday Night: Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue in the parklands and northern interlakes regions. Showers will be likely for the remainder of the night as they weaken. Overnight lows will be mild with most areas likely seeing lows as warm as the high teens and low 20's in the west and areas further west in the mid teens. 

Friday: The same weather setup presents itself with more humidity and moist air coming up from the western USA and Gulf of Mexico, dewpoint temperatures will return in our region into the mid teens, to high teens in western Manitoba. A frontal system will sit over western Manitoba. Another round of severe weather will present itself this time from the parklands into the interlakes regions of Manitoba, and areas mainly along a line northeast from Dauphin south to Minnedosa, east to Eriksdale and north through Ashern and Arborg into the north side of the south basin of lake Winnipeg. The CAPE values are forecast to be in the range of 1,000 to 2,500J/KG, SRH between 200-300 may support some supercell development initially in the areas of Dauphin and in the parklands followed by a weakening trend with showers and thunderstorms scattered in nature with large hail and damaging winds as a threat. From then onwards they should move ENE with the upper flow. Temperatures for the day on Friday will rise into the mid to high 20's in areas north of Dauphin including Swan River, with areas further south and east experiencing the brunt of the heat with values as hot as 30-32C in the red river valley, southeastern Manitoba, eastern Manitoba.  Areas of western and extreme southwestern Manitoba will see highs in the mid to high 20's. 

Friday Night: Another round of active weather may come in from Saskatchewan during the overnight into the parklands with showers and thunderstorms a possibility. Another area of convection may sneak up from the USA border in southwestern Manitoba on Friday overnight. However that may not happen until morning. Clear skies are likely across the south except ehere thunderstorms are occurring. Overnight lows in the mid to high teens are likely, getting warmer as you move east of Neepawa and Brandon. 

The Weekend (Above): An unsettled pattern will continue with chances of showers and thunderstorms continuing, where that will happen is still yet to be determined. The frontal system as mentioned will move east with additional areas of low pressure impacting southern Manitoba. There is some signs that the red river valley and eastern Manitoba may start seeing convection especially based on the ECMWF model. Ill be keeping an eye on that pattern. Temperatures will likely remain warm with values in the mid to high 20's and low 30's overnight lows will also drop into the mid to high teens, with areas in the west seeing lows in the mid teens. 

Details for next week remain unclear, however there will be multiple chances for thunderstorms with the heat and humidity dissapearing as well as the trough begins moving east with the ridge ahead of it flattening. Another update coming on Saturday!

Warmer than average Long Weekend, first Hot weather of the season arriving.

Welcome to the victoria day long weekend, southern sections of Manitoba will likely see the warmest weather this year as well with above seasonal temperatures returning. Our overall pattern is drier than average right now and that may change as we get into the second half of the weekend. High pressure will dominate the picture, however smoke may likely make a return as the wildfire smoke shifts. There is a sign that the heat will really ramp up by the end of the weekend, will that lead to more storms? Find out. 

Saturday: Will be a very nice day, as it has been already. High pressure will be off to our south, the only concern is wildfire smoke which will be moving through our region from north to south with more of it forecast to come through by this evening. Temperatures will likely soar into the mid to high twenties across the south, with the warmest of that air centred over the red river valley with a high of 27C in the Headingly neighborhood. Skies will be hazy as a cold front moves through from the north part of Manitoba into southern sections this evening. Tonight: southern Manitoba will see northwest winds which may bring in smoky conditions, overnight lows will drop into the high single digits in southwestern Manitoba 8-10C. Areas further east in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba will see lows in the low teens (10 to 14C). 

Sunday: Another beautiful day is likely on Sunday, with a wind ENE to northeast wind in place a low pressure system will be sitting off to our south. Temperatures will rise into the low 20’s to mid 20’s across the south. Sunday night: A warm front will move through, the overnight period shifting our winds to the south. As a result our temperatures should stay warm with our values for once as warm as 10-14C across the south but as far north as the Pas, even though I don’t forecast that far north it is something to be aware of. Also as winds shift out of the south smoke will move into central and Northern Manitoba. 

Victoria Day Monday: This is when the weather pattern will begin to shift, southern sections of our region will experience southerly winds between 35-50km/h, with weaker winds in the Brandon and Neepawa regions. Sunny weather will end up across the south, high temperature values will approach or surpass 30C. Humidity may be lower at this point in time because of the lack of high dew points suggested to only be 10-15C and then below 10C later in the day. If you are in the northern interlakes however showers and possible thunderstorms are a possible occurrence. Monday Night: Overnight low temperatures will drop only into the mid to high teens (15 to 19C) there is a chance Winnipeg may see its first overnight low near 20C this year. Areas in the parklands/interlakes may only drop into the low to mid teens (10 to 14C). 

The week ahead: Our temperatures will sit in the mid to high 20’s, and possibly above 30C, with overnight lows in the mid to high teens.  A more unsettled weather pattern is likely this week for showers and thunderstorms especially on Tuesday. Too early to know the exact details of this yet. Also as the 500MB winds over western north America change severe weather is possible as a trough develops over the western Canadian prairie provinces and a ridge over the west central united states, this would put us in a favourable position for Gulf of Mexico moisture to stream northwards. Lately that pattern has been nonexistent because the United States has been cooler than average in the south, however the gulf should begin opening up northerly flow soon. This pattern will likely continue into June but with dry periods as we approach the wetter season. According to world weather there is a chance this pattern will continue into June. Seasonal outlook for June is below. Temperatures and Precipitation in a graphic. Link to the article here: https://worldweather.cc/cron_jobs/images/2023/05/07/canada_prognostic_050823.pdf  

Have a great long weekend!! - Mike McGregor

Long Weekend Weather Update on the Way!!

Warm Weather Pattern Continues, Smoke and Haze likely as well.

 Southern sections of Manitoba (which is my forecast region) continue to experience warm and above average temperatures. The city of Winnipeg today reached a high of 29C. The hottest that it has been this month. This slightly warmer than average weather trend continues as we head into the rest of the week. This forecast will cover our weather into Thursday. 

(Above). The smoke plume above forecast to move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday night. 

Tonight: A northwesterly flow aloft will unfortunately bring smoke in from Alberta, it already has filled into our area with increasing haze. Our overnight temperatures tonight will drop and stay mild into the low to mid teens. No precipitation is expected. 

Tomorrow: Sunny skies are likely however there may be some haze. A northwest flow will continue impacting our area. It’s really bad Alberta right now because of the evacuations going on there. Temperatures on the day will again rise into the mid to high twenties. A low pressure, system will approach our area during the evening. Tomorrow night, will likely see increasing cloud cover overnight lows will drop into the mid teens. 

Wednesday: A front will be moving through in the early afternoon to evening hours with temperatures rising into the mid to high twenties before it passes through. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon. Given the fact low to moderate instability will be present, there’s a chance for non severe thunderstorms. Nothing like what we recieved earlier this month though. Wednesday night increasing amounts of smoke are likely behind the front as a strong northwest flow develops. Temperatures on Wednesday night in the west will drop into the low teens in the east and mid to high single digits in the west. 

Second half of the week: Calmer weather and slightly cooler temperatures are expected as high pressure builds into our region. Temperatures will return into the mid teens for highs and low to mid single digits for overnight lows. Cooler weather is possible over the lakes where lows may approach 0C. 

Warm weather sticks around, unsettled conditions likely. First thunderstorms of the year possible.

 Well it’s safe to say that after months of being in a below average temperature pattern, even though it’s been slightly above average for a while I am happy to announce that we are now in full spring mode in Southern Manitoba. As we head into the second half of the week a more unsettled weather pattern arises, with showers and sunny weather in store. A low pressure system stateside will bring increasing instability to our region for the day on Tuesday. We may also see some of our first summer weather events, hint hint it starts with the letter T and ends with S. Let us have a look at the upcoming weather pattern, so grab a rubber chicken so you can scream in joy and laughter and make it scream as we get into more typical spring weather.

 Today: Much of southern sections of the province today are either under cloud cover or periods of sun and cloud. Also rain continues to move through the interlakes and into the parklands region as well as western Manitoba. Any precipitation should clear out by early this evening. Temperatures for the rest of the day will be quite mild, with high values between 10 and 15C the exceptions being areas of southwestern and western areas where rain will occur highs only reaching around 7-10C. 

Tonight: Cloudy skies will persist as a stubborn area of low pressure that has weakened will sit over the region, regardless temperatures will remain stagnant with overnight lows in the mid to upper single digits. 

Tuesday (Above): An upper level disturbance will move into our area with low levels of instability on the day Tuesday, during the day some cloud will stick around and if that cloud can clear there may be a higher risk for non severe thunderstorms. There is a difference in timing the HRRR is showing showers and thunderstorms initiating during the afternoon hours in southwest Manitoba moving east into the red river valley by early evening where the NAM is letting it develop in the early evening reaching the red river valley by mid to late evening. I would probably go with environment Canada’s take and likely have a late afternoon early evening chance tomorrow . Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens and low 20’s. Our dew point temperatures will be hanging around 9-10C so storms may be higher in the atmosphere where the cloud bases are. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the high single digits to low teens ( the first of spring warmth for overnight) 8-12C likely. 

Wednesday: It’s gonna be one of those days where the weather is so nice out your gonna want to go outside, sunny skies are likely for the day on Wednesday. There’s a chance for some daytime heating convection and showers in the interlakes regions including the parklands. Temperatures are gonna soar into the high teens and low 20’s across southern Manitoba. Warmth will move into the central part of the province as well. Wednesday night: Increasing clouds are likely as convection south of the border drifts slightly northwards, otherwise clear skies are likely overnight lows in the low teens are likely in the southern half with the interlakes and parklands seeing values in the upper single digits. 

Second Half of the week: Models are struggling to develop an idea on where the Colorado low will move to as it develops over the second half of the week. Right now latest data is showing it sitting over North Dakota for a few days bringing the moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. If this decides to move north it may produce more rainfall than expected in the forecast right now . Convection may also be a possibility as it looks to be convectively driven , rainfall amounts at this time look to be heavier stateside. With us only getting scattered showers and or weak thunderstorms. Temperatures during the second half of the week will remain mild with high values in the upper teens and low 20’s. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Have a good week. -Mike McGregor

Above Average Temperatures Arriving

 Update on our weather pattern for this week: Southern sections of Manitoba will likely enter an above normal temperature pattern over the coming days a large ridge will be developing out in western Canada that will move eastwards as time moves on this week. This same ridge will be responsible for significant warmth moving into the Canadian prairies. Whether this ridge stays and builds further north as it moves east or flattens is still to be determined, however the latest NAM shows the ridge flattening as it moves over the Canadian prairies and northern plains mid to late week.

The good news is that regardless our temperatures will rise, on the day Tuesday looks like high temperatures will be rising into the mid to high teens. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid single digits, on Tuesday night. Looks like showers will move through on early Tuesday night into the morning on Wednesday from north to south. Cloudy skies are likely as well. Wednesday will end up being a very warm day with high temperatures rising into the mid to high teens with areas closer to the Canadian border seeing values into the 20C degree range. Overnight lows on Wednesday night look similar and will finally sit around the normal values between 5 and 10C. These temperatures will continue into the mid to high teens, during the second half of the week. I’m seeing Thursday a potential day where high temperatures could still rise as high as 20C in some areas. Thursday night lows will drop into the mid single digits again. The second half of the week these values will continue in the mid to high teens and low 20’s with overnight lows in the single digits 4-10C. . The weekend there’s a chance for a low pressure system to form as a southwest flow aloft moves in, there’s a good chance for rain on Saturday, Sunday and I’m already seeing signs of instability building in. A chance at our first thunderstorms are possible but we will know more by Friday. 

Have a good week. -Mike McGregor