Warm weather sticks around, unsettled conditions likely. First thunderstorms of the year possible.

 Well it’s safe to say that after months of being in a below average temperature pattern, even though it’s been slightly above average for a while I am happy to announce that we are now in full spring mode in Southern Manitoba. As we head into the second half of the week a more unsettled weather pattern arises, with showers and sunny weather in store. A low pressure system stateside will bring increasing instability to our region for the day on Tuesday. We may also see some of our first summer weather events, hint hint it starts with the letter T and ends with S. Let us have a look at the upcoming weather pattern, so grab a rubber chicken so you can scream in joy and laughter and make it scream as we get into more typical spring weather.

 Today: Much of southern sections of the province today are either under cloud cover or periods of sun and cloud. Also rain continues to move through the interlakes and into the parklands region as well as western Manitoba. Any precipitation should clear out by early this evening. Temperatures for the rest of the day will be quite mild, with high values between 10 and 15C the exceptions being areas of southwestern and western areas where rain will occur highs only reaching around 7-10C. 

Tonight: Cloudy skies will persist as a stubborn area of low pressure that has weakened will sit over the region, regardless temperatures will remain stagnant with overnight lows in the mid to upper single digits. 

Tuesday (Above): An upper level disturbance will move into our area with low levels of instability on the day Tuesday, during the day some cloud will stick around and if that cloud can clear there may be a higher risk for non severe thunderstorms. There is a difference in timing the HRRR is showing showers and thunderstorms initiating during the afternoon hours in southwest Manitoba moving east into the red river valley by early evening where the NAM is letting it develop in the early evening reaching the red river valley by mid to late evening. I would probably go with environment Canada’s take and likely have a late afternoon early evening chance tomorrow . Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens and low 20’s. Our dew point temperatures will be hanging around 9-10C so storms may be higher in the atmosphere where the cloud bases are. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the high single digits to low teens ( the first of spring warmth for overnight) 8-12C likely. 

Wednesday: It’s gonna be one of those days where the weather is so nice out your gonna want to go outside, sunny skies are likely for the day on Wednesday. There’s a chance for some daytime heating convection and showers in the interlakes regions including the parklands. Temperatures are gonna soar into the high teens and low 20’s across southern Manitoba. Warmth will move into the central part of the province as well. Wednesday night: Increasing clouds are likely as convection south of the border drifts slightly northwards, otherwise clear skies are likely overnight lows in the low teens are likely in the southern half with the interlakes and parklands seeing values in the upper single digits. 

Second Half of the week: Models are struggling to develop an idea on where the Colorado low will move to as it develops over the second half of the week. Right now latest data is showing it sitting over North Dakota for a few days bringing the moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. If this decides to move north it may produce more rainfall than expected in the forecast right now . Convection may also be a possibility as it looks to be convectively driven , rainfall amounts at this time look to be heavier stateside. With us only getting scattered showers and or weak thunderstorms. Temperatures during the second half of the week will remain mild with high values in the upper teens and low 20’s. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Have a good week. -Mike McGregor