Heat Wave Continues, showers and thunderstorm threat persists well into the week.

Southern Manitoba continues to be impacted by a hotter than average weather this week, according to the latest weather models a strong ridge remains in place just east of us. This pattern despite the ridge east of us and our jet stream flattening, a southerly flow will again build north over our area as multiple low pressure systems ride over top of it. Find out what this means for our weather pattern over the coming days, as we start experiencing the risk of thunderstorms.

(Above):  The current upper pattern shows slight troughing on the west coast, with ridging on the east coast. That ridge will build in again mid week bringing more heat and humidity to the prairie provinces. 

Monday (Above): Today we will see increasing cloud cover as cold front and stationary front approach the red river valley, areas in southwestern Manitoba are already seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region. Mainly non severe thunderstorms are possible spreading into the red river valley and southeast Manitoba as marginal instability builds into those  regions, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms as well in all areas of the south however lower than 40% chance. Temperatures in the red river valley, southeast will remain mild with high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s. A few areas may be as warm as 30C or so, its possible Winnipeg may see its 5th day of temperatures above 30C. Areas only reaching the mid 20’s in the southwest and western part of Manitoba due to convection.  Tonight convection should weaken as the sun sets and overnight low temperatures will for the majority of our region drop into the low to mid teens for southwest Manitoba. Areas in eastern Manitoba will see lows in the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday: Another round of unsettled weather is possible as a cold front moves through in the afternoon hours in the red river valley, this frontal system will encounter higher instability values of 1,000 to 2,000 J/KG. in the red river valley and southeast Manitoba. Scattered non severe and potentially severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail and damaging winds. However nothing organized looks possible due to lack of moisture and shear present. Not everyone will see a thunderstorm due to the very scattered nature of the storms. Temperatures will again rise into the mid to high 20’s with most areas being again close to the 30C mark. Tuesday Night: Any storms left over should clear the province as the system moves into Ontario, temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens for the majority of the region. A few areas may see overnight lows around 15 or 16C. 

Wednesday: A calmer weather pattern will move in for us as we start seeing a more stable weather pattern for us for the second half of the week despite there being low pressure systems in our vicinity. There will be showers and thunderstorms as a possibility in central Manitoba, but that won’t affect the rest of the region. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will rise into the high 20’s across the south. Areas in the interlakes seeing highs in the high teens or low 20’s. Wednesday night: Calm weather continues with lows in the low to mid teens. 

The second half of the week: Another round of unsettled weather is possible as more instability builds in with high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and low 30’s returning, more low pressure systems will also move through this airmass so we will have to watch for severe weather if it develops.