Warmer than average Long Weekend, first Hot weather of the season arriving.

Welcome to the victoria day long weekend, southern sections of Manitoba will likely see the warmest weather this year as well with above seasonal temperatures returning. Our overall pattern is drier than average right now and that may change as we get into the second half of the weekend. High pressure will dominate the picture, however smoke may likely make a return as the wildfire smoke shifts. There is a sign that the heat will really ramp up by the end of the weekend, will that lead to more storms? Find out. 

Saturday: Will be a very nice day, as it has been already. High pressure will be off to our south, the only concern is wildfire smoke which will be moving through our region from north to south with more of it forecast to come through by this evening. Temperatures will likely soar into the mid to high twenties across the south, with the warmest of that air centred over the red river valley with a high of 27C in the Headingly neighborhood. Skies will be hazy as a cold front moves through from the north part of Manitoba into southern sections this evening. Tonight: southern Manitoba will see northwest winds which may bring in smoky conditions, overnight lows will drop into the high single digits in southwestern Manitoba 8-10C. Areas further east in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba will see lows in the low teens (10 to 14C). 

Sunday: Another beautiful day is likely on Sunday, with a wind ENE to northeast wind in place a low pressure system will be sitting off to our south. Temperatures will rise into the low 20’s to mid 20’s across the south. Sunday night: A warm front will move through, the overnight period shifting our winds to the south. As a result our temperatures should stay warm with our values for once as warm as 10-14C across the south but as far north as the Pas, even though I don’t forecast that far north it is something to be aware of. Also as winds shift out of the south smoke will move into central and Northern Manitoba. 

Victoria Day Monday: This is when the weather pattern will begin to shift, southern sections of our region will experience southerly winds between 35-50km/h, with weaker winds in the Brandon and Neepawa regions. Sunny weather will end up across the south, high temperature values will approach or surpass 30C. Humidity may be lower at this point in time because of the lack of high dew points suggested to only be 10-15C and then below 10C later in the day. If you are in the northern interlakes however showers and possible thunderstorms are a possible occurrence. Monday Night: Overnight low temperatures will drop only into the mid to high teens (15 to 19C) there is a chance Winnipeg may see its first overnight low near 20C this year. Areas in the parklands/interlakes may only drop into the low to mid teens (10 to 14C). 

The week ahead: Our temperatures will sit in the mid to high 20’s, and possibly above 30C, with overnight lows in the mid to high teens.  A more unsettled weather pattern is likely this week for showers and thunderstorms especially on Tuesday. Too early to know the exact details of this yet. Also as the 500MB winds over western north America change severe weather is possible as a trough develops over the western Canadian prairie provinces and a ridge over the west central united states, this would put us in a favourable position for Gulf of Mexico moisture to stream northwards. Lately that pattern has been nonexistent because the United States has been cooler than average in the south, however the gulf should begin opening up northerly flow soon. This pattern will likely continue into June but with dry periods as we approach the wetter season. According to world weather there is a chance this pattern will continue into June. Seasonal outlook for June is below. Temperatures and Precipitation in a graphic. Link to the article here: https://worldweather.cc/cron_jobs/images/2023/05/07/canada_prognostic_050823.pdf  

Have a great long weekend!! - Mike McGregor