Heat and Humidity return briefly, severe thunderstorm chances return.

 Southern sections of Manitoba may be experiencing another round of possible severe weather tonight, and tomorrow. Another low pressure system is forecast to move into the region bringing a renewed chance of stormy weather as well as some calmer periods of weather inbetween. Much like a typical summer weather pattern. Find out more on what this means for us this week and the upper weather pattern expected.

( Above: Damaging Squall Line may move through the red river valley in the early morning hours to around lunchtime.) Watch for watches and warnings that get issued at the start of the daytime.) 

Tonight: A disturbance in Saskatchewan will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop in western Manitoba this evening into the overnight period. Areas to watch will be the parklands area of Manitoba and Swan River duck mountain areas further east and southeast into the early overnight. Models are not really showing much in the way of severe thunderstorm activity hitting southwestern Manitoba but with a large area of 2,500 to 3,000J/Kg CAPE there is a odd risk of a supercell or 2 developing with the potential for hail up to the 6cm diameter which would be Baseball to tennis ball size hail. There is also a risk for winds in excess of 100km/h, given the fact storms this year have been following the flow around a ridge of high pressure in the states they will move south, southeast wards along the axis of this upper feature which now sits over texas. There is also a chance if this does develop in southwest parts of Manitoba, there may be other thunderstorms that may form in the parklands in the mid to late evening or early overnight. These will probably move into the red river valley by the early morning hours after moving through the interlake after 3am central time. Overnight lows are likely to drop into the upper teens tonight with a few areas staying warm enough to only sit around 20C, especially urban areas. Thunderstorms may lower these forecast temps if one area sees local effects from thunderstorms. 

Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible in the morning hours before another round of convection looks likely in the afternoon and early evening however it is all dependant on the first batch of storms during the morning hours. There will be a cold front working through the area in the early evening, if storms can clear early enough a large batch of (Thunderstorm Energy) CAPE will establish over the red river valley and some parts of western Manitoba as dewpoint temperatures climb into the high teens and low 20's which would provide ample moisture to work with in creating severe storm potential. There is also going to be some very hot temperatures with areas of the red river valley and eastern Manitoba seeing highs around 30-33C and humidex probably reaching the low 40's areas that are in the west will see these temperatures earlier in the day and drop into the low to mid 20's if storms start moving through after lunchtime the RDPS however seems to keep the heat on in these areas with no storms moving through if that scenario unfolds and most storms happen in North Dakota as some of the higher resolution models are showing then I would think that high temperatures across the region including the southwest would see values in the high 20''s and low 30's. Regardless a hot and humid day will likely be in the outlook with a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms as forecast by Environment Canada in the red river valley and portions of the pembina valley east to Ontario. (See risk map for more details).

Tuesday Night: Much calmer weather is likely as the front that moved through which either increased severe weather potential or brought in heat and humidity will move out by the evening hours. That frontal system behind it will be followed by a small high pressure system. Regardless dewpoints will still sit in the mid teens so it wont be a drier airmass but a more humid one. To those working on crops this weather is perfect for growing even overnight. Temperatures will drop into only the high teens.

Wednesday: More than likely a nicer summer day with little in the way of precipitation expected, except for a few pop up showers or weak thunderstorms. I am kind of surprised at how warm itll be getting this Wednesday, our high temperatures will rise into the high 20's and low 30's with the hottest of that weather, not surprsingly situated over the parklands where a southerly flow will likely sit thanks to those areas being under the stronger backside flow of the high pressure system out ahead of a warm front. Wednesday night much of the same can be expected with lows in the mid to high teens, typical of early August. 

The Second half of the week; Heat and a chance at humidity again build in although the confidence on that right now is quite low on the airmass having high enough dewpoints to support a humid enough atmosphere but that could change. Though I wouldnt be surprised given the flow coming directly from the gulf of mexico. High temperatures from this period will more than likely be above normal with areas seeing highs in the low 30's and high 20's. Overnight lows again will likely be in the low 20's and high teens. This will be interesting to find out later on if the projected temperatures turns into a mini heatwave for us. Storm chances may also increase in this period with this heat, will monitor this for any changes. 

Heat, humidity and Severe Weather threats return this week in Manitoba .

 After a long break , I’m back forecasting. Anyways, the pattern were in southern sections of Manitoba will likely be experiencing an interesting weather pattern over the coming days. A ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United States is finally advancing northwards, bringing with it significant amounts of heat south of the border and some of that heat will likely move into our area if it hasn’t already. There will also be a threat for severe weather again on the day Tuesday and Wednesday in southern Manitoba. Find out more as we look into this weeks blog. 

(above: Forecast temperature outlook above, for the day on Tuesday. HRRR vs NAM 

Tonight (Above): A weak warm front ahead of low pressure will be moving through bringing with it a chance for some unsettled weather conditions. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms over south central Manitoba and the red river valley, into the interlakes. Temperatures will likely drop, into the low 20’s in southwestern Manitoba and high teens elsewhere. Turns out to be a very interesting forecast, there is a risk for thunderstorms in the morning hours with over 1,000J/Kg of CAPE storms may be severe or marginally severe. Hail up to the size of 1-3mm in diameter are possible, so marginal and not the type you would see in supercells.

Tuesday: Turns out to be a very interesting forecast, there is a risk for thunderstorms in the morning hours with over 1,000J/Kg of CAPE storms may be severe or marginally severe. Hail up to the size of 1-3mm in diameter are possible, so marginal and not the type you would see in supercells. The rest of the day severe weather is on the possible cards for the afternoon and evening hours areas in west central and the parklands area of Manitoba, depending on the evolution of earlier convection there may be a threat for severe thunderstorms in areas of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba as well. Storms may not at all develop in southern manitoba and may completely only occur in central Manitoba and the interlakes. Why ??? if storms are not too persistent on the day Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to rise into the high 20’s to low 30's across the region, with dewpoints rising into the mid to high teens and low 20's there will be a resultant MUCAPE of 1,500 to 2,500J/KG with SRH values of 100 to 300, and shear of 30-50knots with higher values into eastern sections of Manitoba. Regardless of the data I am expecting storms to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours, the best chance for this development is a frontal system sitting over central Manitoba which would trigger storms on the edge of this heat. As storms happen there will be a possibility of hail up to the size of 1-3mm or larger in diameter, rain up to 50-75mm an hour, wind gusts up to 90km/h or more and the risk of a tornado but chance of that is a lot lower than previously seen earlier. 

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms will likely clear by the mid to late evening, clearer skies are likely in the overnight period. The good news is that calmer weather is likely on Tuesday night with overnight lows in the mid to high teens.  

Wednesday (Above): The attention turns then towards the day on Wednesday in southern Manitoba, the environment  will be primed for severe weather a frontal system will move through the region in the late afternoon and evening. With this system a lot of heat and humidity will be out ahead of it, im also not too concerned about the chance for cloudcover hindering the threat. As this is out more than 24 hours there will be some uncertain details about the exact timing and location, however severe thunderstorms and regular non severe thunderstorms will be possible. As usual watch for large hail and damaging winds and a tornado threat as well. We will know more on the day of the event. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20's and low 30's with the majority of the heat being centred over southwestern Manitoba. 

Second half of the week: Heat will gradually drop as a frontal system is forecast to help usher in cooler air. Temperatures will remain on the mild side as the heat takes a while to exit with temperatures in the high 20’s for highs and lows in the mid teens . 

Severe weather risk returns. Seasonal weather continues for a brief period. Heat and Humidity soon??

All of Manitoba will likely experience some interesting weather over the next 24-36 hours, another round of thunderstorms is likely. As well a return to some hotter weather, find out more in this weeks blog. 

Tuesday: An active day is setting up over southern sections of Manitoba, a frontal system along with a area of low pressure will likely move through. Ahead of it a moist and unstable airmass will setup bringing the potential for severe weather but a good chance that all areas of the region will get a good chance at rain. The latest models for this system are all over the place in regards to convection, however there is a chance in the morning hours for cloud and showers. Temperatures will reach the mid 20's with areas further east only sitting in the high teens come the afternoon.

This will likely clear come the afternoon hours as it does intability numbers will increase to 1,500 to 2,000J/Kg in areas of southeastern saskatchewan, there is some concern that shear will increse enough for the risk of supercell thunderstorms in that area with 200-400ms2s2 thats basically a measure of how much shear exists for storms to twist. Regardless it looks like a line of thunderstorms will or could develop during the second half of the day towards late afternoon in southwestern Manitoba and then likely drift east southeastwards towards areas south of lake Manitoba during the evening hours likely with general thunderstorms further east as storms weaken by the time they reach the red river valley. Environment Canada already has a risk area for this on tuesday. The severe weather threat will include: 100km/h wind gusts, 3-4mm hail, and rain up to 40mm and a tornado as a threat. 

Tuesday Night: Severe weather threat looks to lessen as the sun sets, and clearing will likely happen. Weakening showers and occasional thunder are possible but only 20% chance. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid teens with some cloudcover likely. Any severe weather likely that occurs after sunset will not have the same severity as the day on Tuesday.

Wednesday: Another round of thunderstorms, will be likely on the day wednesday mainly southcentral and southeast Manitoba. Temperatures on Wednesday will be the warmest up the red river valley and eastern parts of Manitoba in the mid 20's likely. Elsewhere on the north and backside of the low temperatures under cloud and showers will see highs in the mid to high teens. There is still some unknown details about Wednesday about the exact locations of severe weather, in general it looks like a threat for severe thunderstorms may once again arise over areas mainly from Portage La Prairie to the Ontario border south to the american border. CAPE values will be in the 1,000 to 1,500J/Kg range which could bring the threat for hail, strong winds and even some flooding rains mainly localized. Tornadoes do not look as possible on Wednesday as Tuesday. We will monitor for any changes in the forecast. 

The Second Half of the Week: As I mentioned that heat earlier in the week will really begin to move in, high pressure will continue to build in over the southwestern USA and that will move into the canadian prairies. Temperatures by Thursday and Friday will rise into the mid to high 20's with humidex values even hotter, depending on how much of that gulf moisture can build in our humidex values may reach hotter than what I am currently expecting the mid to high 30's. Storms may increase but we will know more as the upper pattern changes into the setup were expecting. 

Calm weekend In Store, Chances for showers and slightly cooler weather. Heat wave soon?

 Southern sections of Manitoba lately has been experiencing significantly cooler than average temperatures and occassional thunderstorms over the last few weeks. This weather pattern is expected to continue for the next couple of days before we head into what could be a interesting week ahead. 

This weekends weather update will be shorter and more of a summary as there isnt much in the way to talk about weather wise. A large area of low pressure in northern Manitoba will likely continue to provide periods of sun and cloud and intermittent showers especially on the day Saturday afternoon as the area of low pressure begins to move south over southern sections of Manitoba. On Saturday cloudy skies are likely. Temperatures will be on the cooler side as a northerly flow and northerly winds sit over our area with highs on Saturday reaching the mid 20's before a trough sinks south with rain moving in for most except areas of far southwestern Manitoba. Overnight lows will likely The good news however is that most of the unsettled weather looks more likely on Saturday night as the low sags south. Temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the low to mid teens.

Sunday will be very cool than normal, with highs about 10C below average seeing high temperatures only in the mid to high teens in the southeast and low 20's in the southwest. I am concerned about the risk to plants and crops on Sunday night when lows could drop below 10C in the Red River Valley, pembina valley and areas of the southwest. Basically any area that isnt going to experience cloudcover overnight which would be the cloud free forecast areas of south central and southwestern Manitoba. In general lows between 8C and 15C are likely on Sunday night.

The Week Ahead: Slightly cooler temperatures will continue with gradual warming likely into the week, an interesting feature will build and that would be the building of a ridge of high pressure in the southwest united states, with a chance very soon that some of that heat could impact us. There will be a few short waves riding over top of it bringing a chance for more unsettled weather and building heat with thunderstorm chances. More info coming on Monday. 

Slightly Cooler Than Average Weather Pattern To Stick Around, chances for showers and thunderstorms.

 This blog will be a little bit shorter as I don't have as nearly as much time for a extensive write up, however I have information that will definitely be able to help you plan out your second half of the week.

Today:Another area of low pressure is posised to dig through the southern prairie provinces bringing with it another chance for showers and thunderstorms today. Theres a chance some of them may approach severe limits as instability lingers close to 1,000J/Kg. Mainly scattered and unorganized thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. If storms manage to reach severe limits only expect 1-2cm hail and gusts up to 80km/h. (Left: Thunderstorm risk map for later today courtesy of Environment Canada). Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20's this afternoon. 

Tonight: After the frontal passage goes through temperatures will drop into the low teens and the high single digits, areas in southwestern Manitoba will cool off the most. Cloudy skies are also likely overnight into Friday.

Friday: Expect a much calmer day weatherwise as the frontal system moves into the northern United States. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are likely, high temperatures in the low to mid 20's are a possibility. High pressure will sit over the region. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens on Friday night. 

The Weekend: More unsettled weather is likely as another area of low pressure is set to move through southern portions of Manitoba. In regards to temperatures a lot of southern sections of Manitoba more than likely have a chance at seeing values in the high teens to mid 20's, with the dividing line of cooler air sitting over the interlakes on Saturday. Overnight lows again we'll likely see in the mid teens on Saturday night. There is enough convective energy forecast for the day on Sunday (Left Image) for some possible severe weather, scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be a possibility. It will be something to definitely keep an eye on as southern sections of Manitoba appear 

to be right on the edge of a lot of heat off to the south. Temperatures on the day Sunday will rise into the high 20's across the extreme southern parts of the province, overnight low temperatures on Sunday night will drop into the high single digits once again with low teens a possibility for some. 

                                                                                             (Skew T Graph for the Winnipeg area on Sunday afternoon in the Red River Valley. Threat may extend further west as well depending on the dynamics. We will know more on the day Sunday).

The Long Range: Still a lot of uncertainity in regards to the weather pattern next week, some models are indicating a switch over to hotter than average weather with a return to storminess while others diverge and offer different upper level patterns. Another reason that I do not think that the long range models are that accurate.