Heat, humidity and Severe Weather threats return this week in Manitoba .

 After a long break , I’m back forecasting. Anyways, the pattern were in southern sections of Manitoba will likely be experiencing an interesting weather pattern over the coming days. A ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United States is finally advancing northwards, bringing with it significant amounts of heat south of the border and some of that heat will likely move into our area if it hasn’t already. There will also be a threat for severe weather again on the day Tuesday and Wednesday in southern Manitoba. Find out more as we look into this weeks blog. 

(above: Forecast temperature outlook above, for the day on Tuesday. HRRR vs NAM 

Tonight (Above): A weak warm front ahead of low pressure will be moving through bringing with it a chance for some unsettled weather conditions. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms over south central Manitoba and the red river valley, into the interlakes. Temperatures will likely drop, into the low 20’s in southwestern Manitoba and high teens elsewhere. Turns out to be a very interesting forecast, there is a risk for thunderstorms in the morning hours with over 1,000J/Kg of CAPE storms may be severe or marginally severe. Hail up to the size of 1-3mm in diameter are possible, so marginal and not the type you would see in supercells.

Tuesday: Turns out to be a very interesting forecast, there is a risk for thunderstorms in the morning hours with over 1,000J/Kg of CAPE storms may be severe or marginally severe. Hail up to the size of 1-3mm in diameter are possible, so marginal and not the type you would see in supercells. The rest of the day severe weather is on the possible cards for the afternoon and evening hours areas in west central and the parklands area of Manitoba, depending on the evolution of earlier convection there may be a threat for severe thunderstorms in areas of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba as well. Storms may not at all develop in southern manitoba and may completely only occur in central Manitoba and the interlakes. Why ??? if storms are not too persistent on the day Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to rise into the high 20’s to low 30's across the region, with dewpoints rising into the mid to high teens and low 20's there will be a resultant MUCAPE of 1,500 to 2,500J/KG with SRH values of 100 to 300, and shear of 30-50knots with higher values into eastern sections of Manitoba. Regardless of the data I am expecting storms to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours, the best chance for this development is a frontal system sitting over central Manitoba which would trigger storms on the edge of this heat. As storms happen there will be a possibility of hail up to the size of 1-3mm or larger in diameter, rain up to 50-75mm an hour, wind gusts up to 90km/h or more and the risk of a tornado but chance of that is a lot lower than previously seen earlier. 

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms will likely clear by the mid to late evening, clearer skies are likely in the overnight period. The good news is that calmer weather is likely on Tuesday night with overnight lows in the mid to high teens.  

Wednesday (Above): The attention turns then towards the day on Wednesday in southern Manitoba, the environment  will be primed for severe weather a frontal system will move through the region in the late afternoon and evening. With this system a lot of heat and humidity will be out ahead of it, im also not too concerned about the chance for cloudcover hindering the threat. As this is out more than 24 hours there will be some uncertain details about the exact timing and location, however severe thunderstorms and regular non severe thunderstorms will be possible. As usual watch for large hail and damaging winds and a tornado threat as well. We will know more on the day of the event. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20's and low 30's with the majority of the heat being centred over southwestern Manitoba. 

Second half of the week: Heat will gradually drop as a frontal system is forecast to help usher in cooler air. Temperatures will remain on the mild side as the heat takes a while to exit with temperatures in the high 20’s for highs and lows in the mid teens .