Severe weather risk returns. Seasonal weather continues for a brief period. Heat and Humidity soon??

All of Manitoba will likely experience some interesting weather over the next 24-36 hours, another round of thunderstorms is likely. As well a return to some hotter weather, find out more in this weeks blog. 

Tuesday: An active day is setting up over southern sections of Manitoba, a frontal system along with a area of low pressure will likely move through. Ahead of it a moist and unstable airmass will setup bringing the potential for severe weather but a good chance that all areas of the region will get a good chance at rain. The latest models for this system are all over the place in regards to convection, however there is a chance in the morning hours for cloud and showers. Temperatures will reach the mid 20's with areas further east only sitting in the high teens come the afternoon.

This will likely clear come the afternoon hours as it does intability numbers will increase to 1,500 to 2,000J/Kg in areas of southeastern saskatchewan, there is some concern that shear will increse enough for the risk of supercell thunderstorms in that area with 200-400ms2s2 thats basically a measure of how much shear exists for storms to twist. Regardless it looks like a line of thunderstorms will or could develop during the second half of the day towards late afternoon in southwestern Manitoba and then likely drift east southeastwards towards areas south of lake Manitoba during the evening hours likely with general thunderstorms further east as storms weaken by the time they reach the red river valley. Environment Canada already has a risk area for this on tuesday. The severe weather threat will include: 100km/h wind gusts, 3-4mm hail, and rain up to 40mm and a tornado as a threat. 

Tuesday Night: Severe weather threat looks to lessen as the sun sets, and clearing will likely happen. Weakening showers and occasional thunder are possible but only 20% chance. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid teens with some cloudcover likely. Any severe weather likely that occurs after sunset will not have the same severity as the day on Tuesday.

Wednesday: Another round of thunderstorms, will be likely on the day wednesday mainly southcentral and southeast Manitoba. Temperatures on Wednesday will be the warmest up the red river valley and eastern parts of Manitoba in the mid 20's likely. Elsewhere on the north and backside of the low temperatures under cloud and showers will see highs in the mid to high teens. There is still some unknown details about Wednesday about the exact locations of severe weather, in general it looks like a threat for severe thunderstorms may once again arise over areas mainly from Portage La Prairie to the Ontario border south to the american border. CAPE values will be in the 1,000 to 1,500J/Kg range which could bring the threat for hail, strong winds and even some flooding rains mainly localized. Tornadoes do not look as possible on Wednesday as Tuesday. We will monitor for any changes in the forecast. 

The Second Half of the Week: As I mentioned that heat earlier in the week will really begin to move in, high pressure will continue to build in over the southwestern USA and that will move into the canadian prairies. Temperatures by Thursday and Friday will rise into the mid to high 20's with humidex values even hotter, depending on how much of that gulf moisture can build in our humidex values may reach hotter than what I am currently expecting the mid to high 30's. Storms may increase but we will know more as the upper pattern changes into the setup were expecting.