Heat and Humidity return briefly, severe thunderstorm chances return.

 Southern sections of Manitoba may be experiencing another round of possible severe weather tonight, and tomorrow. Another low pressure system is forecast to move into the region bringing a renewed chance of stormy weather as well as some calmer periods of weather inbetween. Much like a typical summer weather pattern. Find out more on what this means for us this week and the upper weather pattern expected.

( Above: Damaging Squall Line may move through the red river valley in the early morning hours to around lunchtime.) Watch for watches and warnings that get issued at the start of the daytime.) 

Tonight: A disturbance in Saskatchewan will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop in western Manitoba this evening into the overnight period. Areas to watch will be the parklands area of Manitoba and Swan River duck mountain areas further east and southeast into the early overnight. Models are not really showing much in the way of severe thunderstorm activity hitting southwestern Manitoba but with a large area of 2,500 to 3,000J/Kg CAPE there is a odd risk of a supercell or 2 developing with the potential for hail up to the 6cm diameter which would be Baseball to tennis ball size hail. There is also a risk for winds in excess of 100km/h, given the fact storms this year have been following the flow around a ridge of high pressure in the states they will move south, southeast wards along the axis of this upper feature which now sits over texas. There is also a chance if this does develop in southwest parts of Manitoba, there may be other thunderstorms that may form in the parklands in the mid to late evening or early overnight. These will probably move into the red river valley by the early morning hours after moving through the interlake after 3am central time. Overnight lows are likely to drop into the upper teens tonight with a few areas staying warm enough to only sit around 20C, especially urban areas. Thunderstorms may lower these forecast temps if one area sees local effects from thunderstorms. 

Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible in the morning hours before another round of convection looks likely in the afternoon and early evening however it is all dependant on the first batch of storms during the morning hours. There will be a cold front working through the area in the early evening, if storms can clear early enough a large batch of (Thunderstorm Energy) CAPE will establish over the red river valley and some parts of western Manitoba as dewpoint temperatures climb into the high teens and low 20's which would provide ample moisture to work with in creating severe storm potential. There is also going to be some very hot temperatures with areas of the red river valley and eastern Manitoba seeing highs around 30-33C and humidex probably reaching the low 40's areas that are in the west will see these temperatures earlier in the day and drop into the low to mid 20's if storms start moving through after lunchtime the RDPS however seems to keep the heat on in these areas with no storms moving through if that scenario unfolds and most storms happen in North Dakota as some of the higher resolution models are showing then I would think that high temperatures across the region including the southwest would see values in the high 20''s and low 30's. Regardless a hot and humid day will likely be in the outlook with a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms as forecast by Environment Canada in the red river valley and portions of the pembina valley east to Ontario. (See risk map for more details).

Tuesday Night: Much calmer weather is likely as the front that moved through which either increased severe weather potential or brought in heat and humidity will move out by the evening hours. That frontal system behind it will be followed by a small high pressure system. Regardless dewpoints will still sit in the mid teens so it wont be a drier airmass but a more humid one. To those working on crops this weather is perfect for growing even overnight. Temperatures will drop into only the high teens.

Wednesday: More than likely a nicer summer day with little in the way of precipitation expected, except for a few pop up showers or weak thunderstorms. I am kind of surprised at how warm itll be getting this Wednesday, our high temperatures will rise into the high 20's and low 30's with the hottest of that weather, not surprsingly situated over the parklands where a southerly flow will likely sit thanks to those areas being under the stronger backside flow of the high pressure system out ahead of a warm front. Wednesday night much of the same can be expected with lows in the mid to high teens, typical of early August. 

The Second half of the week; Heat and a chance at humidity again build in although the confidence on that right now is quite low on the airmass having high enough dewpoints to support a humid enough atmosphere but that could change. Though I wouldnt be surprised given the flow coming directly from the gulf of mexico. High temperatures from this period will more than likely be above normal with areas seeing highs in the low 30's and high 20's. Overnight lows again will likely be in the low 20's and high teens. This will be interesting to find out later on if the projected temperatures turns into a mini heatwave for us. Storm chances may also increase in this period with this heat, will monitor this for any changes.