Potential Stormy Weekend On The Way

As we have started warming up in Southern Manitoba a threat of potentially stormy conditions returns this weekend as a potential Colorado Low (or Classico) moves into the region.



A Colorado low will move into our region on the day Sunday (based on the NAM 018Z model from Yesterday), the question is will it happen?

The Weather this weekend may very well be an interesting one with a day of calm and beautiful weather followed by a day of stormy and poor conditions. Though I am not certainly sure it will turn out this way as models are having a tough time making an agreement on the outcome. 

The Track on Classico differs by model, the NAM, GEM-REG and GFS want to carry it Northwards into Manitoba, while the GEM-GLB wants to take it further East into Iowa through to Ontario. If Classico goes into Manitoba the chances for blizzard like conditions and heavy snowfall increase, though if it moves off through Iowa and Ontario we may only receive a dusting at best. 

Thus it makes for a difficult choice and complicates the forecast. My pick very well based on past occurrences this winter, I would likely pick Manitoba as most of the systems I tracked this year ended up hitting us. If anything it's always good to bring issues like these to the table, just in case if it ends up occurring.
 
Let's try and break things down for your day today and the weekend ahead

Overcast -5C/-12C

Friday will start off sunny and quite mild for most of Southern Manitoba as a low pressure system over Northern Manitoba draws a southerly flow into it, allowing for a mild airmass to settle into our region. Not only that but clouds will roll in by morning to mid afternoon (West to East) along with the southerly flow aloft, the southerly winds could also give way to local blowing snow in open areas given the gusts to 40km/h. Temperatures will rise anywhere from -4C to -7C in the West to -6C to -11C in the Red River Valley and East. Overnight Lows from -10C to -14C.

Sunny -5C/-13C

Saturday will be a better day and not as gloomy, the sun will be out for the day allowing for our temperatures to warm a little more with the help of the southerly flow that still will be in place. Temperatures will be in wide variation from -7C to -3C in the day and -15C to -11C overnight, some light snow could arrive overnight if the expected system drives North into the region.

Heavy Snow / Blowing Snow

Sunday is challenging, as seen in the past few paragraphs. If the forecasted system heads into the region we could be in for a day of blizzard like or winter storm conditions. Such as heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and poor road conditions. The snow would likely start by morning and increase in intensity as the day goes on, peaking by evening and near midnight, likely easing by the overnight period. This is the likely worst case scenario, if it happens. Temperatures would probably be left in the mid minus single digits through the day and overnight period given not much in the way of changing wind direction. The track of Classico would be through Northwest Minnesota spreading snow into all of Southern Manitoba the worst in The Red River Valley given the scenario above. Watches and or Warnings may be issued by Environment Canada in advance of this storm system. Stay Tuned for Updates on the comments section of the blog!
                                                                     OR

Scattered Flurries

However the day could be completely different if the low moves East into Iowa and Ontario, sunny to partly sunny skies would dominate the region, with a slight chance for flurries in the Southwest, Red River Valley, and Southeast Portions of the province. Temperatures would remain in the minus single digits for daytime highs and minus double digits overnight.

Long Range
At this point the above seasonal temperature trend will likely continue given the current outlooks and model runs, but a second batch of colder arctic air looks likely by the 14th based on ECMWF and AO Outlooks. That means this cold air may not be as cold as the last one, but the good news is that it may very well be the last of the season. Beyond that point, too much uncertainty exists.

Overall a fairly interesting next few days lies ahead, take care and listen for updates!

Warmer Weather But Not Much Warmer

Warmer weather will be common this week in Southern Manitoba, but that's not to say that it will be much warmer. Instead It will feel warmer compared to the arctic air that we have been experiencing lately in our region.


A look at the clipper system that will be moving by Manitoba bringing an area of lift and snow off to the northeast of the system likely affecting regions of Southern Manitoba. (Map is drawn by me)

"We will be under the influence of a semi zonal flow aloft this week" according to Scott from A Weather Moment as a result there will be several small clipper systems that will track east throughout the week and affect most regions in Southern Manitoba. The clippers will bring multiple chances for snow and some possible blowing snow as they move through. So how is the rest of our week shaping up? Let us have a look shall we...

Clouds and Sun
-8C to - 13C
-15 to -21C

For The rest of the day Today cloudy skies will dominate with a few spots of sun peaking through the clouds. Temperatures will be close to seasonal values with daytime highs in the upper single digits, or lower double digits. All of the temperatures will be below zero of course.



Snow & Local Blowing
Snow Amounts of
5cm+
-3C to -9C
-11C to -17C

As for Wednesday another Alberta clipper will be on the way for the duration of the day. Snow will come along with it likely putting our amounts up into the 5 to 10cm range, much higher than that of Monday's system. The Alberta Clipper will not only bring snow it may also bring forward hazardous driving conditions on some highway's as local blowing snow occurs with the wind whipped fresh falling snow. Things will likely clear out completely by midnight for all as the system drives down into South Dakota. Daytime temperatures will be around the mid minus single digits and warmer in places for Southwest Manitoba.


There is going to be something of interest to talk about in the long range. There have been numerous indications and mentions over the past week that we could possibly be heading for a warmer period of weather that could exist through mid-February. The Climate Prediction Centre, NAEFS, ECMWF, and Arctic Oscillation all are in line with the possibility of a much warmer period of weather than last experienced. It will likely take place from early through until mid February, but doesn't tell how warm we may end up getting. With the warmer weather expected the arctic air invasions we have suffered through last month will become less common, but that's not to say that we may go through a few -30C nights before the month is over.

Deep Freeze Gives Way To A Mixed Weekend (New Weather Icons)

Despite our Deepfreeze we experienced this past week we will now slowly be pushed back into more seasonal like weather, as a series of powerful low pressure systems track through Alaska and become responsible for bringing milder air Eastwards into our Province. The Milder air will arrive at the end of this week.

Warmer Temperatures are on The Way for the end of the week as the pacific air slowly moves in.

Partly Cloudy

Tonight Any leftover snow that was experienced today should clear out leaving behind partly cloudy skies and temperatures once again dropping to -21 to -23C in the West, -25 to -27C in the East and -26 to -29C in the Red Red River Valley and Winnipeg. Coldest windchill's will be in the East in Steinbach at -36C, others anywhere from -32 to -35C. There will also be increasing clouds in Southwest Manitoba overnight as another area of clouds move in from Saskatchewan.

Flurries West / Cloud East

Sunday will start off cloudy in the west with scattered flurries developing by mid afternoon allowing for cloudcover to spread into parts of the Red River Valley, all thank's to an area of low pressure that will slide through the region from Saskatchewan. If you aren't up for shovelling then you don't have to, as there will only be about 2cm when all is said and done. Winter this year is gone fairly easy for the most I'd say. Daytime high's across the South should be in the mid minus teens in the afternoon hours (-13C to -19C). The Clouds and snow should be quick to clear as the system moves east into Northwest Ontario by evening.
Overnight lows on Sunday will be back down into the mid minus twenties and colder. (-25C to -30C). 

      The Week Ahead

 
Heading into next week the flow overhead will become significantly more zonal as a West to East flow takes shape over the prairies, this will allow for pacific air to move into our region getting our temperatures back up to normal and slightly above normal by the end of the week. Spring is nearing and I can truely say so. The following images below are from Brett Anderson's Blog on our week's ahead, it is looking very nice for those people who are getting tired of the winter weather.

Deep Freeze Returns

After a short break from the cold as milder pacific air spilled across the prairies, we now will be tossed back into the deep freeze as another ridge of arctic high pressure spills into the region. 

New Map made by me from the new software called Skitch (The deep freeze arrives as an Arctic Ridge Builds in)

Temperatures will begin to nose dive into the cold range as we head into the weekend with high's stuck in the minus 20's to minus 30's, all thank's to our wonderful friend we call arctic high pressure!
 

Tonight will be a fairly nice one compared to our cold en-devour ahead, light snow and local blowing snow taking place with temperatures approaching the -25C mark as high pressure nears the region, though quite cold out in Southwest Manitoba with temperatures near -35C overnight. Things will warm up for the day Thursday with temperatures into the low minus 20's with windchill values in places approaching the -40's. Sunshine will be the main event. 

 The real chill will arrive on Thursday Night as temperatures hit rock bottom and approach the -36C mark in the West and -33C in the East. Factor that in with windchill's the air will feel closer to -42C to -46C in the West and -41C to -44C in the East, that will be likely if the wind speeds surpass 15 to 20 km/h in most places. Add all of that up more Windchill Warnings will likely be issued in the next few days. Environment Canada has already in fact issued a few earlier today for Western Manitoba .See Picture on the left and click on this text.

 Friday will be a recovery day as temperatures rebound closer to -20C instead of it being in the minus 30's with sunny skies again, an alberta clipper will arrive into the area of Southwest Manitoba overnight into Saturday pushing some cloudcover into the region. That will help our temperatures stay away from the -35C mark and away from the -45C windchill's. The cold weather will be short lived as we see warmer temperatures push eastwards for the day Saturday and Sunday, woo hooo!

Warmup on The Way For The Weekend, Though It Won't Stay Long!

After a cold week we will be given a chance to warmup and get a break from the deepfreeze in southern Manitoba.  


Temperatures forecast for Sunday January 27th, 2013 at 5am, much warmer throughout the day with temperatures reaching the -5C mark or cooler.

The warmer temperatures are heralded by the alberta clipper that passed by our region yesterday, chopping up the Northwest flow and created a zonal (west to east flow) which will enter the region the day on sunday. The warm pacific air will be moving across Alberta and Sakatchewan today entering into Manitoba on Sunday, giving a chance for our temperatures to rise into the high minus teens to low single digits (-17 to -6C), compared to the -30C and cooler overnight lows with the windchills colder than -40C during this past week, including the biting cold daytime highs.

Friday will feature biting cold temperatures still as we remain in an arctic airmass with daytime highs in the low minus teens to high minus teens, and mainly clear skies throughout the night and day.

Saturday things will gradually warmup as we get into the pacific airmass with daytime high temperatures approaching the very high minus teens mark (-13C in the East to -8C in the West).
Sunday will be even warmer as we get into the mild pacific airmass with daytime highs in the low minus single digits (-8C in the East to -4C in the West). There also will be a fairly high chance for snow flurries overnight as another shortwave approaches from the West, cloudcover will also be in place if there are no flurries around as a moist mild pacific airmass is in place ahead of the system.

Outlook For Next Week

Forecast Temps at 2m Above Ground
Level by the GFS on
The (Coldest day) Friday.

I hate to say it folk's colder weather and likely for the last time will return next week as arctic air drives south again. Starting off on Monday an area of low pressure will be trekking across the region bringing a possible 5 to 10cm of snow during the morning in the Western Half of Manitoba to Late Afternoon in the Western Red River Valley, and Red River Valley by early evening. It will eventually drift into Eastman by the late evening hours. Cloudcover will remain during the night behind the system as residual moisture. The system will also bump our temperatures up to near -4C in the West and -2C in the East during the day before the snow arrives (warmest day of our warm spell overall by the looks of it). Things will get much colder next week as an arctic airmass dives south again, thank's to the cold air return from the NW by the low pressure system on the day Tuesday. The main coldsnap could arrive on Friday where daytime highs will be in the -25C to -30C range and maybe windchills near -40C on Friday & on the weekend.

In the long long range the Good thing about this expected coldspell is that it won't last long in terms of days.... by the 11th of February things will get much warmer and will be dealing with less snowfall. The cold arctic air will likely be unable to reach further South as the doors close to the arctic air, by the second week of February. Head over to Another Eastern Cold Shot For February by Brett Anderson Accuweather for more indepth ideas.

Another post will be on the way Monday detailing our snowfall forecast, until then enjoy your weekend folk's and when you have a chance enjoy the warm weather, cheers!

A little snow and then a blast of cold arctic air for the weekend and next week!

I'm back in business folks! A good look at our weather is in the schedule for tonight so let's begin....

A lot has happened in our weather over the past 2 weeks including a few good blizzards, and crazy temperature swings. However we will mainly just have a look at what's on the horizon in terms of conditions for South Manitoba, for the next week or so. Guess what? I have some news to bring to you all "cold weather is on the approach, and not in a good way".That is winter I guess, and I don't like being the bear of bad news....

A clipper system will be moving across Southern Manitoba for the night ahead bringing scattered areas of snow into the Red River Valley and most of the province. Snowfall accumulations of 7cm can be expected in most spots by tomorrow morning, as the clipper system moves off into NW Minnesota. Areas of blowing snow will be very likely in Western Manitoba during the overnight time frame mixed in with the falling snow, travel should very well be difficult in those places especially up through the Riding & Duck Mountain's. 

Map mentioning blowing snow through the day tomorrow

One thing that will be noticeably different tomorrow will be the switchover to a northerly wind that will bring in the seasons first and coldest airmass for Manitoba. Northerly winds will result in Temperatures of -20C and colder, creating windchills of -35C to -40C. The winds will allow for blowing snow to develop on all major roads and highways likely resulting in a few travel problems The culprit? A sharp coldfront, that will move through overnight tonight from the North. (As seen as a blue line with spikes on the map, arctic air coming straight south behind it.)


This will be the coldest batch of air that we will receive in recent memory, overnight lows of minus 30C or colder will be very likely in the time frame through next week. Warming temperatures can be expected for the first week in February ie) after next week.

Back into Business this week!

After a long wait blog posts will return as expected with a review of 2012 as a whole, and a look back at our past couple weeks in terms of weather. I have been sidetracked and very busy with the holiday's and getting back into the routine of going to school and work, this in fact has been the longest time that I have waited to post and hopefully it won't happen again anytime soon. So see you all soon!