Let the melt begin!!

After several months of temperatures sitting below zero for daytime highs we are now welcomed with more springlike weather, it all begins on Sunday. High temperatures will soar into the mid single digits in much of southern Manitoba this week with some areas getting past ten degrees in snow free areas. A chance of rain will appear on Tuesday and Wednesday, before we return to sunnier weather and even warmer temperatures. All thanks to a major pattern change... Read on to find out how each day will turn out.






Surface Temperatures Overnight into Sunday

The night ahead tonight will feature winds gusting out of the south at 60km/h until about shortly after midnight, with the warming air coming in our temperatures will be rising to about the zero mark overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system (above). This system will mark the change to warmer weather as a pacific airmass takes hold. Fog could develop as well overnight due to warmer air enveloping over the cold snow, it's already 3C in Portage La Prairie.

Sunny High's 3 to 7C

Into our day Sunday winds will be light out of the west and cloudcover will be minimal, that should get drier air in our area creating warmer temperatures for us. High temperatures will be above zero and in between 1 and 5C for areas that still have snowcover, areas such as the red river valley and Eastman still have plenty of snow on the ground. Areas that are snowfree such as along the border will get much warmer through the coming days, on Sunday high temperatures could get as warm as 15C in the southwest corner of the province . Low temperatures will drop into the mid minus single digits in snow covered areas, to about slightly above freezing in the snow free areas.



Rainfall on Monday Night

Cloud and showers
High's 3 to 5C

Into the day Monday warm temperatures will continue to be in place with high temperatures in the mid plus single digits in the red river valley into the interlake, models are showing temperatures possibly getting up to or near ten Celsius west of and south of Winnipeg even where snow pack is still in place.  Cloud cover and showers are possible out in Westman areas during the day, with the potential of increasing clouds elsewhere. Monday night cloudcover will stay in place ahead of an area of low pressure that will impact our area on Tuesday. Monday night could feature a band of freezing rain in the interlakes, snow or rain out in Westman and rain in the Red River Valley. There are model differences at this time, but the best bet is that it will be a good rainmaker as temperatures stay above zero for most overnight.

Showers and Rain
High's 3 to 5C

The day Tuesday will be influenced by an area of low pressure bringing a narrow to widespread swath of rainfall across the south as it moves through the province, it will be the first rainfall that we have seen in a long time. Amounts shouldn't be too high, best bet probably about 2 to 5mm. It should exit the province around mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere in southwestern Manitoba it should become fairly sunny by noon, high temperatures from 3 to 5C across the board. Low temperatures in the low minus single digits near zero degrees for most.

Sunny High's 3 to 8C

Wednesday will be a brighter and sunnier day, some differences on guidance models at this time on temperatures, some say we could see daytime highs below freezing while others say we could get above freezing on Wednesday and Thursday. Considering how warm we will get over the coming days and because I am so optimistic we will probably see high temperatures slightly above zero to near 5C. Overnight lows on Wednesday will get to the mid minus single digits.

Long Range

10 to 15C possible along the Canadian Border in the Southern and Western RRV including SW MB on Sunday Next Week

850MB Temperature Anomaly Saturday March 12th

Saturday March 12th Temperatures

CPC 6 to 10 day Temperature outlook

CPC 8 to 14 day temperature outlook.

CFSV2 Temperature Outlook to March 18th

Based on long range weather models and the latest 850mb temperature maps, it looks like the melt will continue as temperatures continue to stay above freezing for daytime highs and this pattern stays in place, it looks likely that temperatures could very well get into the double digits once our snowpack disappears as it has already been 17C in Regina and 21C in Bismarck on Saturday. The warm air is just sitting off to our south and west so it won't be long if we keep eating away at the snowpack, our snowpack will likely be gone in a week or two if we keep getting this warm weather. Also we have a likelihood of seeing multiple low pressure systems go through our area over the coming weeks (responsible for the warm weather) which could result in multiple chances for rain. It's just a matter of time before it's all gone. In case you are interested please do not follow accuweather's outlooks, they have a bad reputation for poor accuracy as quoted by Brandon Houck and they are based in Pennsylvania. They are saying minus single digit high's returning late March, and lows in the minus double digits. Very unlikely as our snowpack will likely be all gone by then.

Seasonal Temperatures Finally Return (Information Compiled by Rob's Blog, A Weather Moment, and Environment Canada.

*No Copyright Intended*

It has been a very cold past couple of days here in Southern Manitoba thanks to a arctic airmass that was in place, that has now cleared out allowing for seasonal temperatures to return. It is a welcome return. However as we approach the weekend our weather could become more active as warmer and more above seasonal air starts moving into our area.

Chance of flurries and sun.
High -5 to -10C

The rest of the day today will offer light winds for most and some cloudy skies and flurries off into the southwestern areas of the Red River Valley into Westman and the riding mountain areas, clearer skies will be in place elsewhere. The flurries are in part due to a system sliding through in North Dakota. High temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits for most with a high of minus five in Brandon, Dauphin will have a high of minus nine. Winnipeg will be closer to minus ten, with a high of minus eight. Bissett and Gimli will be inbetween minus five and minus eight.


Chance of Flurries
Lows -23C to -17C.

Tonight a chance of flurries will linger in areas of Westman, Southwest Red River Valley, and into the Riding Mountain areas. That should clear out by shortly after midnight, low temperatures will dip to minus eighteen in Winnipeg, minus twenty three in Bissett, minus seventeen in Brandon and Dauphin.



Increasing Clouds
High's -4 to -6

Thursday will be a bit of a sunnier of a day as an area of high pressure moves in from the northwest before cloudcover moves in later in the day as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Winds will be light as well. High temperatures will be a bit warmer with high's instead of being around minus ten they will be closer to minus five. A few places to name Bissett will be sitting at minus six, Brandon at minus four, Winnipeg at minus six, and Dauphin at minus five.

Mainly Cloudy
Lows -12 to -20C

Thursday night should be a bit warmer with cloudcover and lows will only be getting into the mid minus teens and slightly above minus ten, a low of minus nine can be expected in Dauphin, minus eighteen in Gimli, minus twelve in Brandon, minus twenty in Bissett. Minus thirteen in Winnipeg.




Snow on the way for the day Friday, not much expected though. 2 to 4cm at least.

Snow Amount 2 to 4cm,
except for Northern regions.
Highs -1 to -6C.

Friday will be a different story an area of low pressure will move through areas of southern Manitoba through the morning to late afternoon and early evening, it will bring a swath of snow with it that will clear out by shortly after supper time. The bulk of it should fall before the noon hour. Amounts should be fairly light with about to 2 to 4cm expected. Areas in the northern interlake and towards Bissett will miss the snowfall, and will experience cloudy skies. Environment Canada is forecasting flurries for now, but I think that the light to moderate snowfall would be a better bet.
High temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits, Winnipeg about minus five celcius, Brandon about minus one, Dauphin minus six, Gimli minus one, and Bissett minus six.

Long Range: Mild Weather Returns As Predicted

Long Range models are continuing to show mild weather on the way for all of southern Manitoba into eastern Canada. There is barely any signs of a cooldown in the near future either.



850mb temperature anomaly Sunday March 6th




850MB Temperature Anomaly Tuesday March 8th




850MB Temperature Anomaly Wed March 9th

850MB Temperature Anomaly Thur March 10th

 

NAEFS 8 to 14 day outlook, showing above seasonal temperatures sticking around

 
 As I have been talking about all this time above seasonal weather is expected as their appears to be a major pattern shift on the way. The arctic airmass that was in place for weeks will finally move out of the area and won't come back anytime soon.  A ridge collapsing out on the west coast will allow for a more zonal flow to take place allowing for pacific air to rush in, as a result much of the country will benefit from warmer air. The pattern shift was also mentioned on TheWeatherChannel in the states.
As a result we will see temperatures above normal for this time of year, with high temperatures around zero to even above freezing through the weekend into next week. We may see a few days of temperatures below zero, but for the most part above zero. High temperatures at times may even approach ten degrees, yes you heard that right plus ten. Along with the warm March sun and highs above freezing our snowpack should quickly diminish. Normal high temperatures are now inbetween -5 and -10C, normal lows between -10C and -20C. Winnipeg's normal is now high -5C and Low -15C.

  Increased Precipitation Chances

Potential for rain on Monday Night,
with lows above freezing.

If you are interested the Jetstream will favour a trough on the west coast which will divert the stormtrack further south into California where the rain is desperately needed. The zonal flow in our country will also allow for an increased chances of rain and snow as the stormtrack is lined up straight west to east through us. In fact we may see some rainfall on Monday night changing over to snow on Tuesday but it should melt, it will be a stronger system that we haven't seen in a long time, but it will be something to watch for. Stay tuned for updates!

Could this be the last cold blast of Winter? Information Provided by A Weather Moment

This week could very well be the last and final blow of winter as we experience another week of below normal temperatures, but it appears that spring may be around the corner.

At the moment we have about 107cm of snow on the ground and it is the 8th warmest winter in history according to robsobsblog.blogspot.com. Read the full article here... http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/2016/02/cold-end-to-mild-winter-warmer-weather.html

 Tuesday will be a bit warmer than that of Monday which in fact was our coldest day of the week. High temperatures on the day Monday were in the minus twenties with windchills in the minus thirties near minus 40C. Why? Thank's to the arctic cold front that slipped through Sunday evening, that was responsible for bringing the blizzard like conditions that made for near zero visibilities in blowing snow. Luckily it didn't stay long. 

 

 Warmth out west waiting to expand further east, although the arctic airmass is continuing to hold it back.
Expect the warmth to gradually move east.

 

Tuesday will be a bit warmer with highs in the low minus teens, along with windchills near minus twenty. Skies will remain clear with arctic high pressure nearby off to the north, unfortunately that will be keeping our warm temperatures at bay until it clears out. Winds will be light out of the west as well with the main warm temperatures staying west of us.

 

Wednesday will be a similar day to Tuesday, except there will be winds out of the north rather than the west, clear to partly cloudy skies will be in place with high temperatures in the low minus teens near minus ten.

 

2M Temperature Anomaly March 6th to 11th

 

 

500MB Height Anomaly March 8th to 13th 

 

 

Snowcover February 28th

Here Is The Good News: Spring Weather Likely Next Week and Beyond

 

The long range is looking promising, various weather models are coming into strong agreement on warmer weather (above seasonal temperatures) arriving from the west starting this weekend, I double checked and I am not dreaming or am I making this up. Once the ridging out west comes into the province snow will likely melt quite quickly as there is a likelihood of temperatures surpassing the freezing mark we may even see days of near plus ten degrees. Given that there is a lack of snow cover out west and south of us including extreme southwestern Manitoba, there will likely be a very fast transition to spring weather. The warmth looks to persist into the Spring Equinox. If you don't believe me you can have a look at the weather models yourself at michaelmcgregor7.wix.com/southmbwxcentral.



Warm Week Continues, Cold or Snow For The Weekend! Information provided by A Weather Moment

It will continue to be a warm week this week as mild air from the pacific continues filtering in, before we arrive in another coldsnap to start the weekend into next week. Highs getting 3 to 6C above average before the coldsnap arrives. As tough as the weather may sound it will not be a long coldsnap at all.

For the night ahead expect clear skies as a cold front slumps southwards with winds blowing from the north. Overnight lows expected at and slightly below minus ten for most people in the south.

Thursday will be a bit cooler with a weak ridge of high pressure moving in behind the cold front that passed through on Wednesday night, high temperatures around and slightly below minus five expected through the day on Thursday. A high of minus six can be expected in Winnipeg on
Thursday. There is a chance of flurries during the day but expect that to clear out by the evening timeframe for the region.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week as temperatures soar with the Jetstream sitting off to the North

Friday will be the warmest day of the week as an area of low pressure enters the central Manitoba region bumping our high temperatures as light westerly winds take hold. High temperatures expected around the freezing mark in the southeastern half of the province including the red river valley, but getting slightly above freezing for the Westman and Dauphin regions up towards the Swan River and Saskatchewan border. A cold front will slump southwards during the evenin bringing a chance for flurries and snowfall, winds will shift to the north around 30km/h. Temperatures will unfortunately dip down to near the minus ten mark overnight.

Long Range: Potentially Cold and Unsettled

Looking ahead in the long range various models have differing ideas on the way a low pressure system may track. Temperatures may stay cool and the weather may be clear if the system stays south, or it may possibly travel through the area, bringing with it seasonable temperatures and some snow. It all depends on how the system travels. At this moment though based on what I'm seeing from the NAM model (the most accurate short range model) it looks like the system will travel through our area and give us snowfall. That would favour warm temperatures for us but I will keep you all updated on this on Twitter.



Warmth returns March 2nd, 850MB Temps show that on this ECMWF model run.

Potentially Above Seasonal For The Start Of The Week

Looking ahead to next week if we see a cooldown and the system does not go through our area our temperatures will quickly switch from below seasonal to near and above average based on the latest ECWF run. It also agrees on Brett Anderson's weather outlook with mild to above average temperatures. Keep in mind our average daytime high is about -6C so if we see above average temperatures we will probably be around zero to even above zero at times. Our weather may end up being variable though if this ridge that is out west doesn't move east, and we remain in a northwestern flow providing periods of warmth and cold with numerous low pressure systems sliding through. I do agree more on a above seasonal temperature trend though. Spring is definitely on the way!



 

 

Information provided by A Weather Moment, Brett Anderson of AccuWeather and Environment Canada Weather

Week Of Warm Weather Brings Weekend Coldsnap

 

Manitoba will enter a phase of warmer weather this week before we end up in another arctic airmass to start the weekend.
 

 

 

 

The warm weather and south winds we saw today was in part due to a trough of low pressure that is hovering over our area. Tonight an area of snow will develop as the trough of low pressure moves through, switching our winds to the north by the morning Tuesday.

 

For the day Tuesday "winds will be out of the North at 20 to 30km/h with a few flurries persisting during the day along with cloudy skies" according to Scott from A Weather Moment. Despite having winds out of the north the temperatures will remain mild around the mid minus single digits for most.

 

Wednesday will also be cloudy and mild with clearing conditions later on in the day, highs closer to zero at around -5C to -2C. It will still be a decent day but those who hate grey days it will be one of those. Pacific Air will dominate for the remainder of the week here, while southern ontario deals with a major snowstorm and strong winds out of the north. They are expecting up to 30cm in some areas they can have it, I feel bad for them as winter will stick around longer because of the increased snow cover.

 

 Long Range

 

                                                              Cold Blast to end the Week

                                                   850mb temperature anomaly Feb 29

                                                  850mb Temperature Anomaly Mar 1st

                                                  850MB Temperature Anomaly Mar 2nd

 

 

After a week of warmer than normal temperatures we will likely be greeted by another blast of arctic air to start the weekend and by the looks of the ECMWF weather model it may end around the 1st of March to the 3rd of March. Theweathernetwork also latches onto this idea. So it will be very brief as to previous years we would be stuck in it for weeks, thank you El Nino!

 

El Nino Years and Thunderstorm Frequency per year in Winnipeg

Spring is Here!!! (Coming Soon)